MADRID – The alliance between Iran and Syria, forged in a context of regional tensions and sectarian rivalries, has become one of the most solid in West Asia. This strategic bond, combining political, military, and geopolitical interests, has allowed both countries to withstand external pressures and assert their influence in a deeply fragmented region.

From the outset, this relationship has been more than just a pragmatic agreement. During the Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988), Damascus played a key role as a strategic ally of Tehran, providing arms and acting as a diplomatic bridge to the Arab world during a period marked by Iranian isolation. In the following years, this cooperation expanded into other areas, strengthening the alliance through joint initiatives in security, intelligence, and mutual support against common adversaries.

The Tehran-Damascus axis solidified after the 1979 Islamic Revolution and found a new pillar in its relationship with Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite group that became an indispensable ally for both. In this framework, Syria transformed into a strategic corridor for the delivery of weapons and resources to Hezbollah, thereby enhancing Iran's power projection in the Levant and its position in the regional geopolitical landscape.

In the last decade, marked by the war in Syria, this alliance has been crucial for the survival of Bashar al-Assad's government. The Iranian military support, alongside that of Russia, helped reverse the course of the conflict in favor of Syria, while Damascus became a symbol of the Axis of Resistance against the United States, Israel, and their regional allies. Now, with new challenges on the horizon, Tehran and Damascus are once again coordinating their efforts in response to what they describe as a “new conspiracy” orchestrated by their traditional adversaries.

In this context, the recent ceasefire reached between Hezbollah and Israel in southern Lebanon has been leveraged to reconfigure fronts in other key scenarios of the West Asia conflict. In Syria, armed terrorist groups backed by Turkey launched a surprise offensive against government positions in the Aleppo province, triggering a new wave of violence in one of the country’s most contested regions.

The operation, which included Turkish logistical and air support, enabled the terrorists to seize control of several villages and strategic locations in Aleppo. The clashes, which lasted for several days, resulted in dozens of deaths and injuries on both sides, in addition to causing significant displacement of civilians fleeing the affected areas. The offensive threatens to further destabilize a region already fractured after more than a decade of war.

Turkey's involvement in these attacks has not gone unnoticed. According to Iranian analysts, the military movements in Aleppo could be linked to tacit coordination between Ankara and Israel, with the aim of weakening Bashar al-Assad’s government and disrupting the logistical operations connecting Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon. This hypothesis gains strength in a context where both countries share strategic interests in countering Iranian influence in the region.

From the perspective of the Islamic Republic of Iran, any attempt at "disconnecting" Syria from Hezbollah represents a significant strategic threat, viewed as a direct advancement of Israeli interests in the region. The ability to maintain a land corridor connecting Tehran to Beirut, passing through Damascus, is crucial for the Resistance Axis supported by Iran, both in logistical and geopolitical terms.

Iranian analysts interpret the recent operation by Turkey-backed armed groups in northern Syria as a calculated move to weaken this strategic corridor. At a time when Russia, Bashar al-Assad's main military ally, is distracted by its war in Ukraine, and Hezbollah is focusing its efforts in Lebanon against Israel, terrorist forces have found a window of opportunity to intensify their attacks in Syrian territory.

The disconnect between Damascus and Hezbollah would be a significant blow to Iran, limiting its ability to project influence and undermining its strategy of supporting allied groups in the region. For Israel, however, this scenario would reinforce its strategic security by reducing Hezbollah’s capacity to receive military supplies and operational support from Syria.

In this context, Tehran views Ankara's movements with concern, interpreting its support for terrorist forces in Syria as another piece in a larger game that could be coordinated with Israel.

The Turkish military operation, dubbed "Aggression Deterrence," has highlighted the complex dynamics underlying the conflict in Syria. According to Iranian sources, this offensive, facilitated by Ankara’s tacit support, aims to pressure Bashar al-Assad into engaging in negotiations on terms favorable to Turkey, after the Syrian president conditioned any dialogue on the complete withdrawal of Turkish forces from northern Syria.

Turkey's strategy appears to pursue multiple objectives: the creation of a buffer zone to ensure its security against the Syrian war and, at the same time, to curb the expansion of Kurdish militias, which Ankara considers an extension of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), a group designated as a terrorist organization by Turkey. The Turkish offensive, while framed as a defensive measure, redraws the territorial control lines in the region, further complicating the already fragile balance of power in Syria.

Meanwhile, Moscow, a traditional ally of Damascus, has adopted a more calculated stance regarding the clashes in Aleppo. Sources close to the Kremlin report that Russia has chosen to delay direct military intervention, prioritizing its resources and efforts in Ukraine. However, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov has not hesitated to condemn the Turkish operation, describing it as a "violation of Syrian sovereignty." Despite these statements, Russian forces have maintained relative restraint in the area, limiting themselves to diplomatic expressions of support for Assad's government.

Iran watches with growing concern the latest developments in Syria, a country whose stability it considers crucial for maintaining its regional influence. In response to the recent advances by Turkey-backed terror groups in the Aleppo region, Iran's allied militias, including Iraqi forces, have reportedly begun to concentrate on the outskirts of this strategic city. This deployment, according to local sources, is seen as the prelude to a counteroffensive aimed at halting the terrorist advance and ensuring Syria’s continued alignment with the Axis of Resistance.

In parallel, there is speculation about increased coordination between Iran and Iraqi authorities to facilitate the use of Iraqi airspace in operations against terror groups linked to Turkey. This move underscores the importance that Iran places on the Syrian conflict, especially at a time when regional dynamics are undergoing reconfiguration and with the second term of Donald Trump, considered hostile to Tehran, looming on the horizon.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf reinforced this narrative by reiterating Tehran's commitment to Syria's fight against terrorism. In a post on his X account, Qalibaf denounced the recent attacks as part of a "plot by the United States and the illegitimate Zionist regime," while pledging continued support to the Syrian government and people.

"After defeating the Zionist regime, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Axis of Resistance will support Syria in facing this new conspiracy, as we have done in the past," the Iranian politician asserted.

Iran's position reflects not only its interest in halting the expansion of Turkey-backed terror groups but also its determination to counter attempts to destabilize the strategic corridor connecting Tehran with Lebanon through Syria. In this sense, Tehran’s movements are a clear signal that it is unwilling to yield ground in a conflict that defines the standing of the Resistance in the region.