TEHRAN – As we enter the new year 2026, do the risks of genocide and displacement for Palestinians in Gaza still persist?

As the first days of 2026 unfold, the Palestinian cause is passing through one of its most complex and sensitive phases. 

The genocidal war on Gaza has posed an immense challenge to the Palestinian people. Fears of forced displacement have shifted from anxieties and suspicions into visible measures and policies that are impossible to ignore.

The elements of mass killing, destruction, and systematic psychological warfare were accompanied by statements, decisions, administrative and diplomatic steps, and coordinated positions, both overt and covert, with international actors.

The truce agreement reached in October 2025 marked the most significant development since the start of the Gaza genocide. As 2026 begins, the agreement remains in effect, contrary to the wishes of the Israeli regime’s government and its slaughter of around 1,000 civilians following its signing. 

The first phase of the agreement has been completed, paving the way for the second phase to begin. The success in reaching the agreement, and its continued durability so far, can be attributed to several factors, including:

A combination of Palestinian, Arab, and Islamic collective diplomacy that recognizes the existential challenge facing Palestine, its land and people, and the grave threat to Arab and Islamic national security should the genocidal war continue at the same pace and methodology of destruction and extermination.

Concerns within the U.S. administration and the international community about a complete loss of control over the unrestrained Israeli regime’s aggression and its repercussions for global stability.

The legendary steadfastness of Palestinians in Gaza, and the Zionist regime’s failure to decisively win the battle militarily or achieve an absolute victory, despite being granted full military, diplomatic, and financial support for more than two years.

Despite the decline in the immediate threat of genocide and displacement as existential dangers, both remain on the agenda of the regime’s government for several reasons, including:

The opposition of the religious Zionism and Jewish parties to moving into the second phase of the agreement, and Benjamin Netanyahu’s efforts to complete his government’s legal term by the end of the year. This keeps the possibility of a return to genocidal war alive, through accusations that the regime has repeatedly used that the resistance has violated the agreement.

The Zionist regime’s linkage of progress in the second phase to the disarmament of the resistance. This opens the door to renewed aggression aimed at forcibly disarming Palestinians under the pretext of their refusal to surrender their weapons. 

Repeated statements by the regime have asserted that if disarmament is not achieved “the easy way,” it will be achieved “the hard way”, through aggression. This has been reinforced by recent threats from U.S. President Donald Trump following his meeting with Netanyahu, in which he warned Palestinian resistance forces of “hell” if they did not hand over their weapons. 

The issue of Palestinian arms thus appears to be the pretext Netanyahu may rely on to resume the Gaza genocide, should Palestinian, Arab, and Islamic diplomacy once again fail to produce acceptable solutions that allow Palestinians to raise their voice on the matter.

The year 2026 is decisive for Netanyahu personally and for the right-wing bloc allied with him, as it is an election year. 

Competition to win over the right-wing voter base fuels the appetite of the Israeli regime’s governing coalition to escalate confrontations, including on the Palestinian front.

The regime's recognition of Somaliland has reinforced earlier Zionist indications that certain “states” were being considered as potential destinations for displaced Palestinians, including Somaliland. This has created the impression that the occupying regime’s exceptional recognition of Somaliland may have come at the price of its willingness to receive displaced Palestinians from Gaza.

The obstruction of reconstruction efforts, and the Zionist government’s deliberate linkage of reconstruction to other tracks, such as disarmament and the extension of control by the “Peace Council”, international stabilization forces, and a Palestinian technocratic government over Gaza. 

Through this approach, the occupation regime seeks to keep humanitarian and living conditions in Gaza harsh and unlivable, pushing people to leave after losing hope in rebuilding their homes, schools, hospitals, and infrastructure destroyed by the occupation.

Palestinians understand that the humanitarian crisis, used as a bargaining tool by the occupation regime, and the linking of reconstruction, relief, and gradual withdrawal to the issue of disarmament will be among the most dangerous challenges of the new year. 

In response, Palestinian resistance forces have no choice but to thwart the regime’s intentions to return to a genocidal war and to resume displacement plans, whether through direct killing and systematic destruction, or through indirect displacement by obstructing reconstruction.