Between the East and West: Azerbaijan’s playbook for strategic pragmatism

TEHRAN - Azerbaijan's foreign policy is characterized by a strategic balance between major global powers and its regional neighbors. This approach allows Azerbaijan to keep its independence and use its geopolitical position as leverage.
The country's foreign policy has been formed by its energy resources, strategic location, and historical conflicts, particularly the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. Azerbaijan's relations with the West, Russia, and neighboring countries are complicated and multifaceted, which reflects its pragmatic view of diplomacy and economic cooperation.
Azerbaijan's foreign policy has been focused on the re-establishment of territorial integrity since gaining independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, especially regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Armenia. National leader Heydar Aliyev began to pursue a foreign policy based on the principle of state sovereignty, secularism, and a balance of international relations.
President Ilham Aliyev has continued this effort with a focus on independence in foreign affairs and refusing to receive direction from external actors, trying to promote Azerbaijan as a center of regional cooperation and peace.
Energy diplomacy, security modernization, and diplomatic balancing are the three main factors of Azerbaijan's foreign policy.
Azerbaijan is working hard to be a dependable energy supplier for Europe by using its resources and investing in renewable energy. On the military front, it wants to build a strong and independent defense with help from key partners.
Diplomatically, Baku is trying to balance its ties with Russia and its dealings with Western countries while maintaining a close partnership with Turkey. This well-rounded strategy aims to boost Azerbaijan's independence, encourage cooperation in the region, and improve stability in the South Caucasus.
Energy, pragmatism, and political friction with West
Azerbaijan is working hard to position itself as a dependable energy source for Europe, while also focusing on renewable energy and the energy transition. On the military front, the country aims to strengthen its forces with help from key allies.
Diplomatically, Baku is balancing its ties with Russia and engaging with Western nations, while maintaining a strong partnership with Turkey. This approach not only boosts Azerbaijan's independence but also sets the stage for better regional cooperation and stability in the South Caucasus.
Azerbaijan's energy supplies play a crucial role in its relationship with the West. Key projects like the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and the Southern Gas Corridor have helped reduce Europe's reliance on Russian energy, making Azerbaijan more valuable strategically.
In July 2022, the EU and Azerbaijan agreed to double gas exports to Europe by 2027 as part of efforts to diversify energy sources following the Ukraine crisis. Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, stated that Azerbaijan is a key partner for our energy security. Reports show that Azerbaijani gas made up about 5% of EU imports in 2023, with plans for further growth.
Azerbaijan isn't part of NATO, but it has sent troops to help out in missions like the one in Afghanistan. It keeps a good relationship with NATO through the Partnership for Peace, but is careful not to get too close to the West because of tensions with Russia and Iran.
When it comes to the U.S., their relationship is pretty practical. The U.S. appreciates what Azerbaijan does for energy and counterterrorism, but there have been some bumps due to human rights and democracy issues. Groups like Freedom House and Human Rights Watch often criticize Azerbaijan's policies, but those concerns haven't taken over their discussions.
Azerbaijan’s economic and military ties with Russia
Russia is a key partner for Azerbaijan, but the relationship is complicated. In 2023, trade between the two reached over $4 billion, making Russia Azerbaijan's second-biggest trading partner after Turkey, according to local customs data.
There’s also military cooperation, with Azerbaijan buying advanced weaponry from Russia. But in recent years, they’ve been looking more to Turkey and Israel for supplies.
Azerbaijan is cautious about Russia's political influence. Unlike Armenia, Azerbaijan hasn’t joined organizations like the Collective Security Treaty Organization or the Eurasian Economic Union, which helps it keep some distance from Moscow.
The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War changed things up. Azerbaijan won decisively with help from Turkey and Israeli drones, which shifted the balance in the region. But Russia stepped back in by brokering the ceasefire and sending 2,000 peacekeepers to the area.
While their presence is meant to keep things stable, it also gives Russia some leverage over both Baku and Yerevan. Azerbaijan has been careful to stress that the Russian peacekeepers are there temporarily, as per the ceasefire agreement.
The war in Ukraine has added another layer of complexity. Azerbaijan has stayed neutral and hasn’t outright condemned Russia’s actions. Still, they have provided humanitarian aid to Ukraine and are involved in post-war rebuilding efforts, showing support for Kyiv while trying not to upset Moscow.
Bridges and borders in relations with neighbors
Azerbaijan is focusing on building strong relationships with its neighbors, mainly Iran and Turkey, while considering historical, cultural, and economic factors. Recently, its ties with Iran have gotten a boost through high-level visits and more economic cooperation, showing that both countries care about stability and trade in the region. Iran sees Azerbaijan as an important partner, especially given their shared culture and religion, and both are looking to work together more amid wider geopolitical challenges.
Turkey is a key ally for Azerbaijan, sharing close ties in politics, military, and energy. Their teamwork is clear in joint energy projects and mutual support during regional issues. Azerbaijan also uses its relationship with Turkey to grow its influence in the Middle East and elsewhere, using diplomatic efforts to connect with other nations.
On the other hand, the relationship with Armenia is still tense due to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Despite this, recent diplomatic moves and EU involvement show there might be a cautious step towards normalization. Armenia's attempts to engage with Russia, especially as tensions with Azerbaijan grow, reflect ongoing regional power struggles.
Azerbaijan's foreign policy is all about keeping balance in a world that’s increasingly divided. By using its energy resources wisely, forming strategic alliances, and being flexible in its diplomacy, Baku has made significant strides in maintaining its sovereignty, territorial integrity, and relevance on the international stage.
Still, challenges are ahead. The future of Nagorno-Karabakh is uncertain, regional peace is fragile, and there’s rising competition between Russia and the West alongside persistent tensions with Iran. How well Baku manages these challenges without leaning too much towards one side will be crucial for its role as a regional power broker in the South Caucasus.
For now, Azerbaijan's foreign policy is a reminder of both the opportunities and dangers small countries face in today’s complex world.
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