TEHRAN - As the war in Gaza deepens and regional tensions escalate, the global community faces urgent questions about the failure of diplomacy, the erosion of international law, and the political motivations driving continued violence. 

Despite growing international protests and calls for accountability, powerful state actors remain locked in strategies prioritizing control over peace and expansion over stability. 

Elija J. Magnier, a veteran Middle East correspondent with decades of experience reporting from conflict zones, shares his thoughts with the Tehran Times on what's really happening in Gaza. He talks about failed ceasefires and how foreign powers influence the conflict, looking at how military goals, political survival, and media stories all play a role in the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

This discussion challenges the official stories, highlights inconsistencies in Western policies, and brings attention to the changing power dynamics in the region, especially when the reality on the ground often contradicts what’s said in mainstream media.

The following is the text with Elija J. Magnier:

QUESTION: I know that you have spent decades reporting from conflict zones in the Middle East, offering deep and on-the-ground insights into the shifting dynamics of war and diplomacy. As the war in Gaza continues to unfold with regional implications, we are honored to hear your perspective on different dimensions of this crisis. Let me begin with this question: What do you think are the main factors that led to the rapid collapse of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, despite international involvement?

ANSWER: First of all, there were no real international guarantees because the interlocutors were Egypt, Qatar, and the United States. Egypt and Qatar do not have leverage over Israel, and the United States has been complicit with Israel since the very beginning of the war.

“Violation of international laws is permitted because there are no longer international laws. We live in a jungle.” There was a deal under the previous administration led by Joe Biden. However, the new administration under Donald Trump supported the ceasefire only for a limited time and then violated it when Trump and his Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, proposed something entirely outside the framework of the original agreement, which included the release of all prisoners. Hamas accepted that proposal, but it did not align with the interests of Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, who has been accused of war crimes by the ICC. These two goals—ending the war and Netanyahu staying in power—are fundamentally incompatible.

If Netanyahu stops the war, he is likely to face a commission of inquiry and be held accountable for his failures and everything that happened since October 7. If he continues the war, he can keep Israeli society in a state of emergency and justify his actions by rejecting any agreement, even if Hamas has accepted it. So, the Americans have not proven to be reliable partners in any deal, and as a character.

Q: So you think there is no strategic shift in U.S. policy in the region and Washington is only managing a crisis of its own making.

A: No. There is a very clear U.S. policy. There are several points that President Donald Trump clarified in his objectives. First, he said Israel is too small, therefore giving the possibility for Israel to expand — which Israel is doing — occupying part of Lebanon, a big part of Syria, with the intention to occupy Gaza, and removing the possibility of a two-state solution in the West Bank. And this is why the settlements are enlarging in the West Bank, and there is no two-state solution on the horizon.

The second point is that Donald Trump said clearly he wants Gaza to become the Riviera of Israel; therefore, he wants all Palestinians out of Gaza. So the policy is very clear. He wants another forced exodus of the Palestinians, and he wants the war to continue.

Hamas said, “I agree not to be part of the leadership of Gaza. I don't want to rule Gaza. I accept that. Bring an alternative government to the Palestinian population.” And Benjamin Netanyahu is saying, “No, I want to continue the war because I want to occupy Gaza,” according to the far-right wing minister that is in his government, threatening him — if he stops the war — to resign and bring down the government. So the policy is very clear.

“Israel does whatever it wants in this world with the backing of the West.” Q: What are the implications of Israeli threats to permanently occupy parts of Gaza and the endorsement of political punishment on the prospect of peace and regional stability?

A: First of all, there is a clear violation of international laws, and international laws do not exist anymore. Second, there is a clear hypocrisy by the West that is obvious now to the whole world — when it was not that obvious in previous years, before the 7th of October.

Third, the collective punishment — the cut of water, electricity, and denying humanitarian aid — is a violation of the Geneva Convention. It's a violation of the United Nations Charter, and Israel doesn't care, with the support of NATO, Western Europe, and the United States. Therefore, there is no accountability for Israel to do whatever it wants in this world.

Therefore, the violation of international laws is permitted because there are no longer international laws. We live in a jungle; we no longer live in a state of law where there are some laws dominating. The strong will eat the weaker.

However, it is not certain that Israel will manage to achieve its objectives, because, according to Israeli officials, Hamas has returned and recruited all these members that have been targeted in this war, to the point that Israeli military officials are saying Hamas is back with 30,000 members as part of the organization.

Therefore, we understand that Benjamin Netanyahu is aware of this issue, and he continues the war, claiming that his objective is possible to achieve — which is destroying Hamas — while Ehud Barak, the former Prime Minister of Israel, and other military officials, including the Shabak leader, everybody saying that Hamas is an ideology which cannot be defeated, including Steve Witkoff, the U.S. envoy in the Middle East.

“International laws do not exist anymore in the case of Gaza.” Q: How do you assess the strategic and humanitarian impact of the Morag Corridor and the total geographic isolation of Gaza, especially the town of Rafah?

A: Yes, the occupation of Rafah cannot be done by Israel without the consent of Egypt. In 1978, the Camp David agreement between Egypt and Israel established a demilitarized zone in the region. In this area, Israel is not allowed to maintain military presence or equipment, such as tanks, jets, or helicopters, and is prohibited from conducting any military operations near the borders with Egypt. 

Now, we see the Palestinian Strip, Gaza Strip, has no longer borders with Egypt, because the Israelis are deployed there. This violation of the Egyptian treaty without any move from Egypt means that Egypt is in bed with Israel. There are various reasons. It doesn't matter: the Egyptian economy, the EU support, financial support, all the concessions that the West is giving to Egypt. However, there is a clear violation of the agreement, and Egypt is in agreement with that.

Now, on top of that, we've had Egypt saying for the first time that they are asking exactly what Israel was asking, and still demand the total disarmament of Hamas. This is not something that can be done, and that was asked by Egypt.

Therefore, Egypt has become the spokesperson of Israel in this issue, and this is not an objective that can be achieved, for the presence of Israel in the Philadelphia Corridor, in Rafah, and also in all other corridors that have been created along the Strip, dividing the Strip into different parts. It aims to isolate several parts of Gaza and then push the population out. The problem is that the former chief of staff of Israel failed in his objective to occupy Gaza, and he conveyed to the political leadership that this objective could not be achieved. 

The new chief of staff told the political leadership that I can fulfill your request. And what is happening in Gaza today is primarily aerial bombing. Historically, except for the former Yugoslavia and Serbia, no forces have ever been made to surrender through air power alone. Therefore, they need to put boots on the ground.

This is not something that the Israelis really want to do, because they understand that resistance will lead to heavy casualties. As a result, for the past 35 days, the military campaign has been limited to aerial bombing. The objectives of occupying Gaza, which is something Benjamin Netanyahu desires, are therefore unlikely to be achieved.

“Ending the war and Netanyahu staying in power—are fundamentally incompatible.”However, there is a point raised yesterday (Saturday, April 19) by Ronen Bar, Netanyahu's spokesperson and the minister responsible for hostage negotiations. He told the families of the hostages that they could be released in six months, which suggests that Netanyahu has given himself six months of continuous warfare to determine whether he can achieve his objectives or not.

Q: In light of the growing protests against Netanyahu's policies, especially within Israel, how do you assess the way Israeli political leadership, particularly Netanyahu, has manipulated the ceasefire for his own domestic political survival?

A: Look, for the first time in history, we see the population asking a foreign leader — namely, Donald Trump, the President of the United States — to help free their people held captive in Gaza, because they do not trust their own prime minister.

However, the opposition remains relatively powerless, even if the protests involve hundreds of thousands or even a million people. At the Knesset, Benjamin Netanyahu still holds a majority with 68 seats, supported by his far-right allies. Therefore, the opposition can achieve very little and Donald Trump is not listening to them.

We heard that one of the Israeli hostages holds dual nationality, including American. Yet, the United States has not reacted. This is not surprising. We have seen a similar lack of response when Israeli forces killed Shireen Abu Akleh, the Al Jazeera correspondent who also held U.S. nationality. America did not move to condemn Israel or hold it accountable.

Because there is no accountability, the Israelis can do whatever they want.

Therefore, the opposition against Benjamin Netanyahu feels powerless. He is strong enough politically that they can do very little to persuade him to change course.

Q: So, do you think there is any risk of civil war within Israel regarding the tensions related to the Gaza conflict?

A: Well, the only way today is for the resistance to resist and to wait for the Israelis to move in their forces, and not limit themselves to bombing the civilians.

This is what Israel is doing today, and it inflicts pain on Hamas and the Islamic Jihad by killing their families and civilians to force them to come out and surrender, but such an event will not happen.

Q: Do you believe that there is enough international political will to investigate war crimes in Gaza?

A: Well, the International Criminal Court has already issued a condemnation and an arrest warrant against Benjamin Netanyahu and his former military minister, Yoav Gallant. However, the problem is that all the signatories of the treaty have refused to apply it to Netanyahu.

So, the European leaders said they would not arrest Netanyahu if he came and visited them, and he did visit European Union member countries, returning unharmed without being arrested.

Therefore, investigating war crimes is relatively easy, as Israeli officials openly declared their war crimes and crimes against humanity, and even their intent to commit genocide, which the International Court of Justice is now looking into in the case of South Africa against Israel.

However, the International Court lacks the resources, such as soldiers, to arrest criminals unless UN member countries decide to act.

And since the UN is led by the United States, there is little hope for accountability for Israeli leaders who have openly committed war crimes and crimes against humanity, as shown on television, social media, and videos they themselves published.

The demonization of Palestinians, with the intent to kill civilians and starve them, constitutes war crimes and crimes against humanity, with clear evidence. The real challenge is how to implement these accusations against Israel. That is the key, and unfortunately, in today's world, this is not possible.

Q: So, regarding the growing protests, especially in U.S. universities and some European cities recently, how do you evaluate the Western media's framing of the Gaza war?
Q: Do you think that, regarding these growing protests, the dominant narrative has shifted since October 2023?

A: Oh, yes, of course. The narrative has shifted among the population, but not in the media. The media is still very shyly covering the Palestinian cause and the Palestinian suffering.

The choice for the Western media is very limited. Here, it's either you accuse Israel of war crimes and crimes against humanity, which Israel is committing, or you accuse the Palestinians of whatever accusations can be manufactured.

So we have seen in Europe that the media fell into a kind of complete coma, where the clock stopped on the 7th of October, but then the ceasefire started, and when the ceasefire started, everybody advertised for it.

But now nobody's talking about how Israel is violating the ceasefire and is not respecting it, even though Hamas agreed to the ceasefire. To the point that even the U.S. envoy, who went to talk to Hamas in Qatar, said that Hamas are nice people, and they can talk to them, was removed from his position. So, the double standard is overwhelming, and one can walk down the media path and forget completely about it.

Q: Do you think that social media was able to defeat this mainstream narrative? Did social media change the game in favor of the Palestinian narrative?

A: Yes, one thing Israel has lost indeed is the narrative. And Israel today is the most hated entity in the world for its actions and its crimes against the civilian population.

Because of what Israel is doing, it is investing millions of dollars to try and soften the attacks against it, but it's not succeeding because there are so many videos and proofs posted by the Israelis themselves, proving that this is the most unethical and immoral army in the world, repeating crimes against humanity, making it impossible for anyone not to watch and share it.

This is where Israel has lost. But for the Israelis, this is not something that they care about, because they believe time is the biggest healer.
We've seen how in 1948, despite all the massacres that the Israelis committed against the Palestinians, although time has changed, and today we have the Internet and social media, people have the tendency to forget.

Q: Thanks a lot for sharing your insight, Mr. McNair. Before we wrap up, is there anything you'd like to add?

A: On this fine note, the only thing is that I don't think it is enough to support the Palestinian people, because it is not a question of giving up, even if the world is not listening. But it's important to continue highlighting, raising awareness, and speaking about Israeli crimes based on the evidence provided by the Israelis themselves.