MADRID – On February 3, Iranian Vice President for Strategic Affairs Mohammad Javad Zarif unveiled the Strategic Consensus Document for National Security, a comprehensive strategic roadmap.

During a Tehran gathering also attended by journalists, Zarif said the document was devised with the help of scholars, analysts, historians as well as a team of officials working for him. 

With a historical perspective spanning from the Qajar era to the Islamic Revolution, the document points out that Iran's security has been under constant threat due to its vulnerability to external actors. On this basis, it highlights the role of the Islamic Republic as the guarantor of national stability and emphasizes its strategic approach on the international stage over the past four decades.

The initiative is presented as an exercise in “historical and rational calculation,” directed both at the international community and various sectors of Iranian society. Its purpose is twofold: on the one hand, to construct a coherent narrative on national security; on the other, to outline a roadmap for its effective implementation amid growing regional and international tensions.

Zarif began his analysis by situating what he described as “the first act of Iran’s modern history”: a period marked by conflicts that not only redefined its regional position but also exposed its vulnerability to major world powers. In the early 19th century, the country became embroiled in two wars against Russia (1804–1813 and 1826–1828), which resulted in the loss of vast territories in the Caucasus. The Treaties of Golestan and Turkmenchay sealed these defeats and ushered in an era of foreign intervention that, according to the document, shaped Iran’s political and economic development for more than a century.

This persistent external pressure, the report argues, hindered the consolidation of strong internal structures and obstructed the formation of a stable governance model. Throughout the 19th century, Iran became a battleground for imperial interests between Russia and the United Kingdom—a dynamic that intensified in the 20th century with the discovery of oil. The exploitation of natural resources by foreign companies, combined with externally imposed economic pressures, further weakened the country’s sovereignty. In this context, nationalist movements and reform efforts emerged, shaping Iran’s trajectory in the century that followed.

Second act: 1945-1970 – a turn towards the West

For former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, the second half of the 20th century marked a turning point in Iranian politics, characterized by an increasingly close alignment with the West, particularly the United States and the United Kingdom. Following the Allied occupation during World War II and the subsequent withdrawal of foreign troops, Iran, wary of growing Soviet influence, strengthened its ties with Washington in pursuit of stability, economic assistance, and military support.

Although Tehran sought to maintain some degree of autonomy by keeping limited relations with Moscow, its foreign policy was ultimately defined by its dependence on the West. The economic growth fueled by oil exploitation—largely controlled by foreign interests—generated internal tensions that would eventually lead to profound political and social transformations in the following decades.

Third act: 1970-1979 – the consolidation of a dependent power

In the 1970s, Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi aligned Iran’s position with the Nixon Doctrine and consolidated its role as a strategic ally of the United States in the Persian Gulf. With unprecedented military and economic backing from Washington, the Iranian monarch adopted an interventionist foreign policy to expand his influence in the region.

One of the most significant milestones of this period was Iran’s intervention in Dhofar (Oman) in 1973, where Iranian troops suppressed a leftist insurgency that threatened the stability of the Strait of Hormuz—achieving Iran’s first military victory in over a century. Shortly afterward, between 1974 and 1975, Iran clashed with Iraq over control of the Shatt al-Arab waterway, a conflict that culminated in the signing of the Algiers Agreement, granting Tehran a strategic advantage over Baghdad.

However, this regional expansion contrasted sharply with growing internal instability. The Shah’s dependence on the U.S., combined with rising economic inequality and social unrest, fueled widespread discontent. These tensions ultimately erupted into the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which toppled his regime and ushered in a new era for Iran.

Fourth act: 1979-2019 – challenging the international order

The 1979 Islamic Revolution marked a turning point in Iran’s contemporary history, redefining its position on the global stage. With the fall of the Shah and the establishment of the Islamic Republic, the country adopted a foreign policy centered on independence and defiance of the Western-led international order. 
The most significant episode of this period was the with against Iraq (1980-1988), a conflict that, for the first time since 1796, saw Iran resist an invasion without ceding territory. Despite facing an Iraqi military backed by the United States, the Soviet Union, and Persian Gulf monarchies, Tehran sustained the war for eight years, solidifying its resilience and reshaping its military doctrine.

Fifth act: 2019-2024 – achieving balance

In recent years, Iran has demonstrated a growing ability to deter and respond to its adversaries, establishing itself as a key regional actor. Zarif believes that through a combination of calculated military actions and diplomatic maneuvers, Tehran has avoided direct confrontation with powers like the United States and Israel while strengthening its influence in West Asia.

One of the most symbolic moments of this alleged strategy came in 2019, when Iran shot down a U.S. drone over the Gulf of Oman, testing Washington’s limits without triggering a military escalation. A year later, the U.S. assassination of General Qasaem Soleimani in Baghdad marked a critical turning point in bilateral relations. In response, Iran launched missile strikes on the Ain al-Asad base in Iraq—an unprecedented retaliation that, despite its impact, did not lead to open war.

More recently, on April 13, 2024, Iran launched a direct attack on Israel in retaliation for the bombing of its consulate in Syria. This marked a shift in its strategy, opting for a direct response from its own territory. The operation reaffirmed Iran’s deterrence capabilities and demonstrated its willingness to respond to external aggression, reshaping the regional balance of power.

During this period, Iran has strengthened its position without triggering full-scale war, combining shows of force with calculated pragmatism to solidify its role in the new regional order.

Iran: 220 years in pursuit of security

The historical analysis concluded with a categorical statement: after a century and a half marked by military defeats, territorial losses, and foreign interference—followed by more than three decades of alignment and dependence—Iran embarked on a transformative process in 1979 to establish itself as a self-sufficient state in security and defense.

After the historical analysis, Zarif proceeded to outline the necessary measures to ensure long-term stability, emphasizing that Iran must transcend a purely military approach and address both internal and external strategic challenges. In this regard, the National Security Consensus Strategic Document identifies several key challenges for the coming years.

Among these, the environmental crisis stands out as an urgent threat: water scarcity and soil degradation are severely undermining the country’s sustainability. Domestically, social cohesion is recognized as a critical pillar, with a focus on reducing inequalities and strengthening national identity as the bedrock of stability.

The report also emphasizes the need to shift from a defensive stance to a development-driven strategy. To achieve this, Iran must bridge the gap with its regional competitors through economic and technological advancements, while simultaneously improving its international projection. 

Another pressing challenge is overcoming the impact of economic sanctions, which have restricted access to vital markets. Gradual economic liberalization and enhanced foreign investment are proposed as crucial pathways to ensure sustained growth.

In conclusion, the document asserts that, in the face of ongoing geopolitical shifts, Iran must balance its military power with a pragmatic vision that incorporates internal stability, economic growth, and a more prominent role on the international stage.

At the close of the presentation, the vice president for strategic affairs addressed concerns about the country’s current challenges with a resolute message:

"We have faced various challenges for 40 years, and those who believe we will yield to recent difficulties should know that if we were ever going to surrender, we would have done so long ago."