TEHRAN - Concerns over the potential for a full-scale war between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah resistance movement have once again been pushed to the forefront of media debate amid escalating cross-border attacks between the two sides.

Hezbollah and Israel have been trading fire since October 8. That’s a day after Israel declared war on Gaza following a surprise military operation conducted by Hamas in southern Israel. 

Hezbollah carries out strikes against Israel in solidarity with Palestinian people in Gaza. The resistance movement has stressed that the attacks won’t stop unless Israel ends its war of genocide on the besieged Palestinian territory. 

But, clashes have grown in number and scale over the past few days. 

Hezbollah said this week that it had launched a “swarm of drones” at Israeli military sites.

The resistance movement noted that it had hit Israel’s Iron Dome defense system in the northern village of Ramot Naftali, using a guided missile. 

Israeli warmongering 

Israel has also intensified attacks against Lebanon. Human Rights Watch said on Wednesday Israel used white phosphorus incendiary shells on residential buildings in at least five towns and villages in southern Lebanon. The prominent rights group added that the move harms civilians and violates international law.

Israeli officials, meanwhile, began to beat the drum of a full-scale conflict with Hezbollah. With Prime Miniter Benjamin Netanyahu saying “we are prepared for a very intense operation in the north. One way or another, we will restore security to the north.” 

Netanyahu’s comments came after his far-right ministers made similar threats. 
 
“They burn us here, all Hezbollah strongholds should also burn and be destroyed. WAR!” National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir said on Tuesday in a Telegram post.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich also said on Monday, “We must move the security strip from inside Israeli territory in the Galilee to southern Lebanon, including a ground invasion, occupation of the territory and distancing Hezbollah terrorists and hundreds of thousands of Lebanese among whom Hezbollah hides to the other side of the Litani River.”

Military officials also tried not to fall behind. Israeli Chief of the General Staff Herzi Halevi said on Tuesday that the regime’s army was ready to move to an offensive in Lebanon. 

Israel’s hostility towards Hezbollah dates back to the early 1980s when the resistance group was established to fight the regime’s invasion of Lebanon. 

Rising resistance 

Israel launched an offensive in Lebanon in 1982, sending its tanks all the way to the capital Beirut. Israel occupied southern Lebanon for nearly 20 years until it was driven out by Hezbollah in 2000. 

Israel carried out the assault after coming under attack from Palestinians in Lebanon. 

Sporadic clashes between Israel and Hezbollah continued even after the regime was forced to leave southern Lebanon.

July War 

Tensions boiled over in 2006 when the regime went to war with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.

The war started on July 12, 2006 – days after the Lebanese resistance movement captured two Israeli soldiers. 

The conflict ended on August 14 after Israel failed to defeat Hezbollah.

Israel killed more than 1,000 Lebanese, mostly civilians in the 34-day conflict.  More than 120 Israeli soldiers were also killed. 

Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has said on multiple occasions that the 2006 war, known as the July War, was a success for the resistance movement. 

“This is the historic and strategic accomplishment that the resistance achieved for Lebanon in the July War: security and safety over the past 15 years,” Nasrallah said in August 2021.  

In mid-August 2021, an Israeli inquiry acknowledged the regime’s failure to achieve its goal in the 2006 war describing the conflict as “unsuccessful” and “missed opportunity”.

“Israel initiated a long war, which ended without its clear military victory,” the inquiry said. 

Hezbollah military capabilities 

The military capability of the Lebanese resistance movement has grown since then. 

Nasrallah has already said that the resistance group has 100,000 fighters.

Hezbollah has also increased its stockpile of missiles from 14,000 in 2006 to about 150,000 and has developed precision-guided missiles and its drone programs. 

Presently Lebanon will have the upper hand in case of a full-scale war. But, the movement has reiterated it does not seek to expand the war.

“Either way, we have decided not to widen the battle and we do not want an all-out war. But if it is imposed on us, we are ready and we won’t retreat,” Sheikh Naim Qassem, deputy chief of Lebanon’s resistance movement, said a few days ago. 

In early March he also issued a stern warning to Israel saying, “We, hereby, declare that if they commit a foolish act and attack our territories, there would then be a new version of the 2006 July war.”

Israel’s recent threat of military action against Hezbollah comes as the regime is under global and domestic pressure to reach a ceasefire deal with Hamas. 

But the only way that can help Netanyahu remain in power is a permanent state of war. This is because if the war ends, he will be held to account for his failure to prevent the October 7 attack by Hamas that dealt severe blows to the regime’s military and intelligence.

The Israeli premier is currently walking a tightrope. 

On the one hand, Netanyahu will lose power if he puts a halt to his regime’s warmongering policy. 

On the other hand, if the Netanyahu regime chooses to go to war with Hezbollah, it will have to face a doomsday scenario. 

The Hamas’ October 7 attack highlighted Israel’s extreme vulnerabilities.

Israel’s serious weakness further came to light in April when Iran launched a salvo of more than 300 drones and missiles at the regime’s military bases. The operation dubbed True Promise was in retaliation for the Israeli killing of seven Iranian military advisors in Syria.  

Just hundreds of Iranian missiles shook Israel to the core and proved that without the US support the regime would be wiped off the map in a short period. 

In case of an all-war with Hezbollah, tens of thousands of missiles could be fired toward Israel and turn it into complete ruins. 

The US involvement in such a scenario would turn West Asia into a hell on earth for American forces. This is because anti-US sentiment has already been high over Washington’s unwavering support for Israel’s war on Gaza.