TEHRAN – All eyes are now on West Asia after Iran carried out a large-scale and sophisticated operation against the occupied territories in response to Israel’s attack on its embassy in Damascus. 

Iranian officials said they wanted to teach Israel a lesson and demonstrate that a new chapter has begun in the country’s fight against the Zionist regime. “From now on, Iran will respond from its own soil to any attack by Israel on Iranian interests, assets, notable people, and citizens in any part of the world,” Major General Hossein Salami, The IRGC ’s Chief Commander, said during an interview with Iranian media. 

While Western states, which have been backing Israel in its genocidal attacks on the besieged Gaza Strip, condemned Iran for escalating tensions to “unprecedented levels”, analysts believe Tehran was forced to take the action, partly due to the West’s own conduct.

“Israel has been violating every international law and convention in the past 6 months. The West allowed that to happen by establishing that the regime is above the law. Israel broke another law by attacking our embassy and the West did nothing to condemn the act,” said Hassan Hani Zadeh, an expert on international affairs. “What was Iran supposed to do? Sit back and watch another one of its embassies get bombed? Iran had no other option but to create deterrence on its own. For two whole weeks, Tehran tried to get the West and the UN Security Council to do something but they all decided to stay silent,” he added. 

What will the future look like after Iran’s retaliation?

It is widely believed that Iran’s attack on the occupied territories has changed West Asia forever. Israel will either act more sensibly from now on or take the entire region down with it. A situation in between is also imaginable, but that depends on how the regime decides to respond to Operation True Promise. 

Ali Abdi, an expert on Israel and Palestine, believes there are five possible scenarios the regime might try to execute as it weighs a response to Iran’s retaliation:

1. Launching a direct assault on Iranian territory

2. Resurrecting the "shadow war" tactics

3. Carrying out attacks on one or two regional nations aligned with Iran

4. Targeting Rafah

5. Implementing a combination of options 2, 3, and 4 

“I don’t think Israel will directly strike Iranian soil because chances that such an attack would be successful is quite low or it might come with a high cost. The regime’s main tool to carry out airstrikes is F35 fighter jets. It would be very difficult to fly to Iran’s airspace, bomb a place, and then return unscathed” Abdi explained. 

Israel’s rogue nature means regional war is possible

Western officials have been asking Israel to refrain from responding to Iran and count the successful “downing of 99% of Iranian projectiles” as a victory. The fact that several of the missiles Iran fired still managed to hit their targets while the U.S., UK, France, and Jordan were working alongside Israel, might also demotivate the regime from further provoking Iran. However, some fear that Netanyahu might still decide to respond to Iran and eventually wage a regional war to save himself from losing his political career or ending in jail. 

“It is quite evident by Iranian officials’ remarks that they have not rolled out the possibility of Netanyahu making another idiotic mistake. They have vowed to hit Israel harder if Iranian soil or assets are harmed, and I believe they mean that. Iran will not stop until the regime backs down. This could easily lead to a large-scale war with regional and international consequences,” Senior analyst on West Asia, Seyyed Hadi Afghahi, told the Tehran Times adding that Western states are to blame for the volatile situation of West Asia. “The West let Israel do whatever it wants and now it has to deal with an uncontrollable entity that is willing to sacrifice everyone for its own sake. Israel has been losing since October 7th, it needs something big to get itself out of the Gaza predicament and a regional war is perfect for that.”