Biden, by escalating tension, has bolstered Yemen’s Ansarullah: analysis

January 17, 2024 - 11:27
Ansarullah mocks Biden and Sunak’s effort to re-establish deterrence against Yemen

Yemen’s Ansarullah has already succeeded in “inflicting a cost onto Israel’s economy and making a mockery” of U.S. President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s effort to re-establish deterrence in the Red Seat against Yemen, the Time magazine said in a commentary on January 15.

The United States and Britain launched missile strikes in Ansarullah-controlled areas of Yemen on January 12. The aerial raids were aimed at halting attacks on Israeli-affiliated ships in the Red Sea by Ansarullah.

Ansarullah was only targeting ships destined to and from Israel in response to the regime’s indiscriminate attacks in the Gaza Strip, which have been described as concrete examples of war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide.

Ansarullah insisted if Israel halted attacks on civilians and allowed humanitarian aid to its 2.3 million population, it would stop its attacks. However, Biden’s administration not only blocked UN efforts for a ceasefire, it even formed a coalition with Britain, Australia, Canada, the Netherlands, and Bahrain and attacked Yemen.

Since that attack on Yemen, Yemen’s Ansarullah has said from now on American and British ships are not immune from attacks.

Time said escalating tensions will strengthen Ansarullah and elevate the potential for the conflict to expand into a full-fledged regional war.

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan also said on Tuesday the attacks by Ansarullah “are connected to the war in Gaza,” urging an “immediate” ceasefire in the conflict.

Following is an excerpt of the article titled “How Biden Can Stop Ansarullah Missile Attacks—Without Risking War”:

There is a simple reason why American and British military strikes against Yemen’s Ansarullah will not achieve their objective of re-opening the crucial Red Sea lanes for international shipping: The Ansarullah don’t have to succeed in striking additional commercial vessels, or even successfully retaliate against U.S. military ships. All they need to do is to try. That is enough to sustain a de facto shipping blockade of the Red Sea, through which a staggering 12% of global trade flows. Many Western commercial vessels will simply not risk moving their ships through those waters, not in spite of Biden’s military strikes, but now because of them.

The irony is evident as the wealthiest nation in the world bombs one of the poorest. Biden, by escalating tensions with Ansarullah, has inadvertently bolstered the group’s ability to disrupt international shipping. Ansarullah had managed to increase the cost of container shipping in the wake of the Israel-Hamas war by launching missile attacks at cargo ships passing through the vital waterways. But the Biden Administration’s retaliatory strikes on Yemen’s Ansarullah have turned off shipping companies, perhaps irrevocably, until the war ends.

Ansarullah has continued to fire missiles at ships almost daily since Thursday. An Ansarullah missile on Sunday was shot down by the U.S. Navy. It never hit its target, but it still served its purpose: Keeping tensions high and scaring away Western ships heading toward Israel. But even the U.S. ability to continue to shoot down missiles is hardly guaranteed: on Monday, an Ansarullah missile struck an American-owned container ship in the Gulf of Aden. As such, the Ansarullah have already succeeded in inflicting a cost onto Israel’s economy, all the while making a mockery of Biden and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s effort to re-establish deterrence.

Biden can certainly choose to up the ante and intensify the targeting of Ansarullah weapons depots and missile launchers. But unless there is a substantial degradation of Ansarullah military capabilities—a scenario that seems improbable given their large arsenal of anti-ship missiles and estimated 200,000 fighters—continued strikes will only beget more of the same: escalating tensions that strengthen the de facto Ansarullah blockade and elevate the potential for the conflict to expand into a full-fledged regional war. This is an outcome the Biden Administration claims to want to prevent.

“Under the guise of restoring deterrence, Biden has done the opposite.”

It didn't need to reach this point. Ansarullah had consistently expressed their demands publicly: an end to attacks on Red Sea ships in exchange for Israel halting strikes on Palestinians in Gaza, which have killed at least 24,000 so far, most of them women and children.

There's no guarantee the Ansarullah would have upheld their commitment post-ceasefire. But when a temporary truce did reign in Gaza from Nov. 24 to 30 of last year, the number of confirmed Ansarullah attacks in the Red Sea significantly diminished, according to the Institute for the Study of War. Ansarullah issued a statement on the last day of the truce, reaffirming their “full readiness to resume its military operations” when fighting resumed in Gaza.

Biden ignored this warning. In his last call with Netanyahu on Dec. 23, 2023, Biden did not even raise the issue of a ceasefire. Earlier, he had told reporters that there was “no possibility” for a ceasefire. And, of course, his administration vetoed multiple UN Security Council resolutions calling for pauses in the fighting.

Yet a ceasefire is far more likely to curb Ansarullah and Iraqi militia attacks; reduce tensions on the Israeli-Lebanese border, where regular exchanges of fire have been taking place; secure the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas; and, most important of all, stop further civilian casualties in Gaza.

Instead, under the guise of restoring deterrence, Biden has done the opposite.

If, in the worst-case scenario, Biden’s escalation against the Ansarullah sparks a regional war, there should be little doubt that this is another war of choice—and one without Congressional authorization. Not because Biden desired it, but because he refused to pursue the most obvious and peaceful path to prevent it.

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