TEHRAN - Despite earlier projections of abundant rainfall in Iran during autumn, the country has been confronted with severely low precipitation, raising concerns over its impact on water resources and agricultural sectors.

In marked contrast, neighboring countries in West Asia region, such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, have enjoyed substantial rainfall and snowfall. Subsequently, the puzzling disparity sparked inquiries into the underlying causes of Iran's precipitation deficiency.

Several videos of the Iran-Turkey border went viral, exposing the stark contrast between snow-covered mountain ranges on the Turkish side and the barren landscape on the Iranian side. 

These recordings have triggered discussions among experts who suggest that rain shadow, orographic effects, and pollution in cities, coupled with climate change, may account for these irregularities. However, such explanations failed to address the abnormally low precipitation in Iran.

The divergence in precipitation levels between these two regions in borders highlighted a notable discrepancy, prompting questions about the situation in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. 

While some experts argued that snow and rain are not uncommon in Arab countries, referring to historical records of snowfall in certain cities, again, their explanations had yet to fully convince skeptics. 

In response to growing concerns, Ali Salajegheh, head of the Department of Environment, recently announced plans for a ground-breaking study on the causes of low rainfall in the current water year and the consequences of climate change. 

Nonetheless, it is challenging to attribute precipitation patterns solely to climate change; maybe extreme events like drought or heavy rainfall can be influenced by it, although with limited certainty. Moreover, Climate change is expected to have a significant impact on the entire West Asia region.

Some rumors were spread surrounding the existence of anti-hail devices near Mount Sabalan whose primary purpose is to convert hail within clouds into rain, safeguarding crops in the area from potential damage. Addressing the issue, the director general of Ardabil province’s Meteorology Department, Majid Kohi, stated that there is no scientific evidence to support the ability of these devices to disperse clouds or inhibit rainfall.

However, a report from IRNA news agency in 2021 featured the head of the Maragheh Environmental Protection Department, Gholamreza Zare, who highlighted the potential impact of anti-hail devices on local rainfall. 

Zare noted that in recent years, these devices have been used in the apple orchards of the city, and irregular usage has led to cloud dispersal and decreased rainfall, particularly on the southern slopes of Sahand. 

Anti-hail devices have gained widespread use in Iran, particularly within the agricultural sector, for more than a decade. The Parliament Research Center’s report (2014) has also mentioned the counteractive nature of anti-hail devices in contrast to cloud seeding methods.

All this while official statements from the Iranian government have recently confirmed the country's precipitation levels have fallen 30% below the average recorded over the past three decades. 

Mansour Sohrabi, an agroecologist, has also expressed concerns over the Urmia Lake basin that have witnessed a drastic 40% reduction in rainfall and changes in precipitation patterns from autumn into late winter and early spring. 

According to long-term data, more than 45% of rainfall in the basin historically occurred during the autumn season. In this sense, only abnormal winter conditions until mid-April 2024 can compensate for this rainfall deficit.

Naser Karami, a climatologist, remained hopeful about the months ahead. Karami believes that Iran may still experience a promising water year, with the possibility of rainfall in March and April, citing recent precipitation patterns observed during these periods.

Iran naturally receives less rainfall or snowfall compared to its neighboring country Turkey, primarily due to its geographic features like mountain ranges and desert regions. 

Moreover, its fluctuation in precipitation levels can be attributed to a combination of factors, including larger atmospheric circulation patterns, regional weather systems, and natural climatic variations. 

However, despite the potential impact on the entire West Asia and Central Asia regions, it is noteworthy that many countries surrounding Iran have experienced favorable levels of precipitation from Turkey to Afghanistan, and even in arid regions like Saudi Arabia and the UAE considering all of these factors, it is inevitable to ponder the impact of cloud seeding projects on enhancing precipitation to combat drought in these countries.

In compliance with an order newly issued by Salajegheh, the inaugural scientific seminar concerning regional interventions and their potential impact on the country's rainfall variations was conducted. 

The decision to undertake this investigation was prompted by alarming warnings from the Meteorological Organization about the insufficient rainfall, as well as an overwhelming outpouring of public opinion that vividly showcased the devastating effects of the low precipitation on water shortage. 

However, Due to the absence of proper legal international mechanisms, Kaveh Madani, head of the United Nations Water Think Tank, has also stressed the importance of approaching the potential risks of cloud seeding investments in neighboring countries with scientific investigation rather than emotional accusations, emphasizing that it is easier to refute such claims than to prove them.

Earlier in 2018, senior Iranian officials determined that the country's precipitation was being manipulated from the clouds. General Gholam Reza Jalali, a prominent figure in The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, specifically, accused Israel and another unnamed nation of interfering with Iranian clouds, causing a decrease in rainfall. 

Nonetheless, their worries were not rooted in upstream dams or depleting aquifers, but rather in atmospheric phenomena. Remarkably, the unnamed country behind these actions was revealed to be the UAE, which had launched an ambitious cloud-seeding initiative to alleviate dry conditions. The primary motivation behind their endeavors was rather a desperate attempt to provide relief to arid lands.

Altogether, in an era where aridity and competition for limited water resources continue to intensify, the drive for innovative solutions like cloud seeding becomes a crucial component in addressing the pressing issue of water scarcity. Geoengineering technologies present a viable option to mitigate the harmful consequences of climate-induced droughts on the environment.

China boasts the most ambitious cloud-seeding program worldwide. Its goal is to stimulate rainfall in half the country, particularly in the drought-stricken region. As West Asia and North Africa grapple with increasingly arid conditions, regional countries are racing to develop effective chemicals and techniques capable of extracting raindrops from seemingly unyielding clouds. 

Cloud seeding is increasingly seen as a promising solution to address this urgent challenge. Affluent countries like the UAE and recently, Turkey and Saudi Arabia have initiated a large-scale effort, investing hundreds of millions of dollars into cloud-seeding projects, taking the lead to ensure access to rainfall before water scarcity becomes even more dire.

Other West Asian and North African nations are also joining the race, despite uncertainties surrounding the effectiveness and cost efficiency of the technique. Therefore, regardless of the uncertainty surrounding their efficacy, it is imperative to establish regulations for their implementation.

Iran already has cloud-seeding programs; In light of Iran, what strategies can the country undertake? Should Iran also allocate additional resources toward practical cloud seeding projects to combat anomalous low precipitation patterns, or alternatively, invest time to engage in negotiations with international entities to standardize regulations for cloud seeding worldwide?!