TEHRAN - A professor of international business and international affairs at the George Washington University says Saudi Arabia “wants to make development of Iran's and Iraq's oil and gas less attractive for international oil companies at a time when Iran will be specially looking to attract investors to increase its oil output.”

Hossein Askari who served as special advisor to Saudi minister of finance, also says for the future “oil will trade in the $45-$60 for the next 10 years or so.”

Askari, a former member of executive board of the International Monetary Fund, also says the high oil prices of “the first decade of the 21st century enabled heavy investment in alternatives and these investments and their direction are irreversible.”

Following is the full text of the interview:

Q: Why in its recent meeting in Vienna did OPEC make no decision to reduce oil production to drive prices up?

A: First, please note that things have changed in the last 10 years because of the shale oil/gas revolution. OPEC is not the force it was. As important, more than ever before whatever remains of OPEC, Saudi Arabia is OPEC. Saudi Arabia is producing 10.3 MBD. A record for Saudi Arabia at a time when there is a glut of oil on the market. It wants to maintain or increase its market share. It wants to make development of Iran's and Iraq's oil and gas less attractive for international oil companies at a time when Iran will be specially looking to attract investors to increase its oil output by 1 MBD in the next 14-16 months and by 3 MBD over the next 3-5 years. Cutting back output, Saudi Arabia would make life easier for Iran. So why would Saudi Arabia want to cut back its output? No reason at all.

Q: What is your prediction of oil price for the coming years?

A: As you know, 18-24 months ago, I said West Texas Intermediate crude would trade in the $50-$60 range per barrel and people thought I was nuts! Well, it got down to that low level quicker than I thought. For the future, while oil prices could spike for a few months, I believe that oil will trade in the $45-$60 for the next 10 years or so. Why? For a number of reasons that will keep pressure on oil prices: the shale revolution is here to stay, slower global economic growth (global economic growth is the driver of oil prices) for the next decade or so, energy savings measures that have resulted from the earlier high prices that have not been fully passed through, another major financial crisis (the West, especially the United States still has not addressed badly needed financial reforms) and deep recession, competition between Saudi Arabia (supported by the GCC) and Iran and Iraq.

Q: Some plans are underway for “new energy” or “alternative energy”. So what is the impact of low oil price on these plans? And which energy firms will lose more in such a situation?

A: Sure, low oil prices reduce the profitability of competition from non oil/gas fuels. But to my mind, the high prices of the first decade of the 21st century enabled such heavy investment in alternatives and these investments and their direction are irreversible. Specifically in response to you, I would say that energy firms that are not diversified will be losers relative to those that are diversified.

Q: Qatar recently announced that it will face budget deficit in 2016. So is it possible to see that Qatar put pressure on Saudi Arabia and OPEC in general to pump less oil to raise prices?

A: No. Qatar with its new Emir and Saudi Arabia with its new king are trying to get along. They need each other. As important, Qatar has an excellent credit rating and significant external assets that exceed $200 billion. It is not in a position that it needs higher oil prices to survive. Political survival is what matters. And for that cooperation with Saudi Arabia is now more important than ever before. So Qatar is not in desperate financial need and it is also not in a position to pressure Saudi Arabia to raise prices. Saudi Arabia cannot simply raise prices by itself. The only way it can raise prices is to cut back output. And for the reasons outlined earlier, it will NOT agree to production cutbacks