By Sami Moubayed

@T=Lebanon's prime minister-designate Saad Hariri finally admitted defeat last week after failing to get his proposed cabinet approved following the victory of his March 14 coalition in June's elections.
Hariri submitted his resignation to President Michel Suleiman, plunging Lebanon once again into a political stalemate that many view as a victory for the Hezbollah-led opposition.
Suleiman now has to consult parliament to designate a new prime minister. There is talk of the outgoing premier, United States-backed Fuad Saniora, being put forward again, or even of Hariri resubmitting his candidacy.
Hariri, who is close to Saudi Arabia, France and the United States, had tried for 70 days to reach a compromise with the opposition, which is backed by Syria. When that failed, in frustration, he unilaterally presented a 30-man cabinet proposal to the president Tuesday, which was flatly rejected by both Hezbollah and its heavyweight ally, Michel Aoun, leader of the Christian Free Patriotic Movement (FPM).
During the parliamentary elections in June, Hariri's allies won 71 seats in the 128-member assembly, while the opposition maintained its status quo with 57 seats.
Backed by the majority, Hariri was invited to form a government, and from day one he promised to include all parties, including Hezbollah and Aoun, in his cabinet.
The opposition insisted on a blocking third within the government - the right to veto any legislation that it did not approve, which Hariri flatly rejected, claiming that constitutionally it was not entitled to such a privilege.
It was then decided that to please all parties, the March 14 coalition would receive 15 seats in the 30-seat cabinet, while Hezbollah and its allies would get 10. Suleiman, who stands at arm's length from the Saudis, the Syrians, the Iranians and the Americans, would then get to name five ministers. These would include the minister of defense, interior and three ministers of state, being a Sunni, a Shi'ite and a Christian.
As a last-minute compromise, it was agreed that the opposition would name one of the three state ministers affiliated with the president. Legally, they would still not have veto power, but de facto they would have influence over 11 - rather than 10 - ministers, thereby giving them the blocking third veto power. This veto is important for Hezbollah as it will not tolerate any legislation that attempts to force it to disarm.
But this did not work because Aoun insisted that he be given the interior portfolio. Aoun also made a fuss when Hariri refused to name the former's son-in-law, Gibran Bassil, as a minister, as Bassil had lost in the elections in June.
Aoun's opponents, the Lebanese Phalange, a Christian heavyweight party that is allied to Hariri, wanted industry for its Sami Gemayel. Another Christian party, the Lebanese Forces, made loud demands for tourism and social affairs. An Hezbollah ally, Nabib Berri, the speaker of parliament, asked for his share to be foreign affairs and health, while Hezbollah was promised energy.
Hariri sidestepped Maronite chief Suleiman Franjiyyieh, an ally of Hezbollah and Syria, failing to meet with him during consultations, and then gave him a cabinet post with no portfolio, effectively saying: “If you want a seat, go take it from Michel Aoun's allocated posts.”
Finally, fed up with playing cat-and-mouse with all these parties, Hariri formed a cabinet, allocating seats to different players according to what he saw as best, and presented it to Suleiman.
Aoun was the first to immediately and flatly reject it, claiming it had been drafted without the opposition's approval. Aoun said, “He (Hariri) wants to have fun and play with the cabinet formation according to his mood.” Aoun, who holds 27 of the 57 seats of the Hezbollah-led opposition, has been the main stumbling bloc for Hariri, demanding four out of seven Maronite portfolios in the cabinet, including the posts of interior and telecommunications.
Hariri had proposed giving Aoun three of the four seats requested, refusing, however, to name Bassil as minister. In a statement released by his office, Aoun called on members of his FPM “to resign immediately from any cabinet that includes their names”.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah also rejected the cabinet lineup, saying of Hariri's move: “I don't think that the method employed today takes Lebanon out of the government-formation crisis. On the contrary, it further complicates the problem.”
He also described Hariri's move as “inappropriate” and said the March 14 coalition had not made any concessions in talks aimed at agreeing on a new unity government.
Although Hariri's resignation might be a delaying tactic, Nasrallah and Hezbollah could feel emboldened to demand an outright blocking third. If not, Lebanon will continue in a state of political limbo.
Sami Moubayed is editor-in-chief of Forward Magazine in Syria.
(Source: Asia Times)