TEHRAN – As Iraq concludes a hard-fought election, attention is now turning to the challenge of forming a new government.

Preliminary results from the Independent High Electoral Commission show that Prime Minister Mohammad al-Sudani’s Reconstruction and Development alliance secured the most votes, winning 45 seats. But the tally falls far short of the 165 seats required for an outright majority in Iraq’s 329-seat Council of Representatives.

No party has ever reached that threshold since elections began in 2005. In fact, in the contests of 2021, 2018, 2014, and 2010, the party that won the most seats did not ultimately form the government, often due to pushback from rival factions. 

This history of elections underscores an important point: a strong showing at the polls does not guarantee Sudani a second term.

Coalition talks are already underway among the major winners, including Sudani’s alliance; former parliament speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi’s Progress Party; former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law coalition, placed second and third respectively; and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) led by the Barzani family. 

There have also been exploratory meetings involving Qais al-Khazali of Sadiqoun, Hadi al-Amiri’s Badr Organization, and other influential groups that performed well.

In 2021, Shia parties formed the Coordination Framework, which ultimately chose Sudani, then a relatively unknown former mayor, as prime minister. 

This year, those parties within the Coordination Framework ran separately, but there are signs they may be edging toward reuniting. Still, based on early numbers and political signals, the next government may require a broader parliamentary coalition that extends beyond Shia factions to include Sunni and Kurdish partners.

Reports suggest that major components of the Coordination Framework have secured about 93 seats without Sudani. 

On the other hand, Halbousi’s Progress Party performed strongly, ranking second in Baghdad, the country’s political center. For many, the ideal outcome would be a tripartite alliance strong enough to swiftly shape parliament, form a government, and select a president.

Before the vote, some in the Coordination Framework were reportedly opposed to renewing Sudani’s mandate. But after the polls, Sudani emerged as the strongest winner among the Shia parties in several provinces, giving him leverage as coalition negotiations begin. He now has a credible claim to lead talks with Shia, Sunni, and Kurdish parties.

This election could break old patterns, but Iraqi politicians are well aware that the largest party that emerges as the winner rarely forms the government, even when it leads in multiple provinces. 

Much will depend on whether Shia parties can assemble a unified and coherent coalition. If they do, Sudani’s chances of a second term will improve. If not, a consensus candidate acceptable to Sudani’s Alliance for Reconstruction and Development, which led Shia voting in Baghdad and other areas, could emerge instead. 

For now, all scenarios remain on the table. Under Iraq’s power-sharing system, the premiership must go to a Shia Arab, the parliamentary speakership to a Sunni Arab, and the presidency to a Kurd. 

For ordinary Iraqis, the priority is ensuring the country avoids a constitutional vacuum, and with it, another stretch of weak caretaker governance unable to make meaningful decisions.

Many remember the year-long paralysis that followed the 2021 election, when the Sadrist movement won the most seats but failed to form a government amid record-low turnout. The resulting deadlock ultimately erupted into deadly street clashes between Sadr’s supporters and government forces inside Baghdad’s Green Zone.

Voters want a swift, stable government formation process capable of addressing domestic needs and safeguarding Iraq’s sovereignty. The mandate handed to these newly elected politicians reflects that hope.