TEHRAN – The much-anticipated peace talks between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban in Istanbul have dramatically collapsed after four days of negotiations leaving mediators from Qatar and Turkey stunned at the breakdown. The negotiations were a step toward regional stability but instead exposed deep mistrust, disunity, and competing agendas, particularly over the issue of U.S. drone operations and cross-border terror.

Media reports that the meeting began with cautious optimism. With only one issue left unresolved when the talks collapsed.

During the talks it was revealed for the first time about an agreement between Pakistan and the United States permitting drone operations from its territory. Pakistani officials reportedly insisted that this pact “cannot be broken”, provoking outrage on the Afghan side.

Pakistan’s Information Minister Attaullah Tarrar accused the Taliban of being “indifferent to Pakistan’s losses” even though “Pakistan has always desired, advocated and immensely sacrificed for peace and prosperity for the people of Afghanistan.” Tarrar wrote on his X social media platform that “Pakistan’s patience has run its course,” and warned that Islamabad would “continue to take all possible measures necessary to protect our people from the menace of terrorism.”

Earlier on Tuesday, three Pakistani security officials with direct knowledge of the negotiations told the Associated Press that talks in Istanbul had reached a deadlock due to Kabul’s reluctance to accept demands that Afghan soil not be used against Pakistan. The failure to reach an agreement on Islamabad’s security and border demands was quoted as one of the reasons for the breakdown of talks.

“Pakistani delegation’s position is logical and indispensable for peace,” a Pakistani security official was quoted as saying.

The Taliban team were operating under direct instructions from Kabul. According to Pakistani officials, the Taliban delegation was “not fully willing” to accept Pakistan’s proposals and continued to seek guidance from Kabul before making decisions.

Afghanistan’s RTA outlet made similar accusations against Pakistani side, saying Kabul “made every effort to hold constructive talks,” but the “Pakistani side does not seem to have this intention.”

Doha agreement

Pakistan’s Inter-Service Public Relations (ISPR) released a statement Sunday that five Pakistani and 25 militants were killed in the latest round of cross border clashes while the two neighboring countries were holding peace talks in Istanbul. 

After a ceasefire agreement between Afghanistan and Pakistan was struck in Doha on October 18, a follow-up meeting was held in Istanbul on Saturday to hammer out the mechanisms for enforcing the truce. The details of the meeting remain murky as many issues in the negotiation have not been finalized.

After nearly 15 hours of discussions that stretched into the early hours of Sunday the Taliban delegation submitted a draft proposal that calls Islamabad to honor Afghanistan’s airspace and refrain from supporting armed groups opposed to Taliban, according to RTA.

In addition, the Afghan negotiators advocated the creation of a four-party monitoring mechanism that would include representatives from both nations as well as mediating countries, to oversee ceasefire implementation and facilitate information sharing on potential violations.

Pakistan’s delegation submitted its revised version of the draft signaling continued engagement and responsiveness to Afghanistan’s proposals.

Pakistani media, citing official sources, reported that Islamabad submitted its own security framework focused on dismantling what it called as terrorist sanctuaries used by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a banned militant group blamed for a surge in attacks against Pakistan’s forces.

The talks in Doha -- mediated by Turkey and Qatar – demanded verifiable actions against militant groups from both sides, with Pakistan pushing for monitoring mechanisms and Afghanistan prioritizing territorial integrity.

The Afghanistan delegation in Istanbul was led by the Deputy Interior Minister Haji Najib. Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif, led his delegation along with senior security officials.

On Saturday, Asif publicly warned that if no agreement was reached from the Istanbul talks, Pakistan retains the option of “open war” with Afghanistan. “But I saw that they want peace,” he added.

During the early morning hours of October 9, explosions were heard across Kabul. At the time Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid downplayed its severity and did not ascribe any blame. But the next day, the Afghan Ministry of Defence accused Pakistan of launching air strikes on its capital Kabul. Islamabad has denied this accusation.

Until now, neither side has claimed responsibility for the October 9 Kabul bombing. Each side has accused the other of initiating the deadly clashes.

India-Afghanistan reset ties

The October 9 explosions in Kabul coincided with the arrival on the same day of the Taliban Foreign Minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, in India for a six-day visit, the first trip since Taliban’s return to power. 

During his visit Muttaqi held talks with his Indian counterpart S. Jaishankar in New Delhi.

At the end of the visit both sides called for closer bilateral cooperation and Jaishankar thanked Muttaqi for his invitation to “Indian companies to explore mining opportunities in Afghanistan.”

Later announcement was made for the commencement of direct flights between Kabul and Indian cities.

India already relies on Chabahar Port for trade with Afghanistan. Improvement in Kabul-New Delhi ties will inevitably lead to more trade between the two countries, increasing transit via Chabahar.

After the closure of Atari-Wagah border crossing following hostilities between the two sides in April-May, Chabahar Port remains the only viable route for trade between Afghanistan and India. The U.S. has revoked the 2018 sanctions waiver that allowed India to develop the port and access Afghanistan and Central Asia, bypassing Pakistan. Under the circumstances, India should take advantage of this waiver and encourage its private sector to continue cooperation with Iran for the completion this project.

Kunar River flow

Amid recent violent border clashes a directive to begin work for construction of dams on the Kunar River was given by the Taliban leader Mawlawi Habitullah Akhundzadeh, reports India Times. The Afghan Ministry of Water and Energy announced that Akhundzada had instructed construction of dam along the 480-kilometer-long Kunar River which originates from Afghanistan’s Hindu Kush mountains and flows southward into Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa region. If these dams are built, they could severely impact Pakistan’s water supply, as the Kunar River feeds into the Kabul River, which ultimately joins the Indus River.

The Taliban government’s plan to build dams on the Kunar River will escalate tensions with Pakistan over water control. While this plan will take years to bear fruit, it is very likely that Afghanistan will use this for leverage at the negotiating table with Pakistan.

The dam construction announcement follows Muttaqi’s visit to India when both sides reaffirmed cooperation on hydropower and dam projects to support Afghanistan’s energy and agricultural development.

The failure of the Istanbul talks is unfortunate and will hinder mistrust amongst the two Muslim nations. All border crossings between the two sides have remained shut for more than two weeks, with trucks carrying good stranded. People living around the 2,640-kilometer Durand Line, the international border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, will experience the harsh economic reality of border shut-down for now.