TEHRAN – As tensions flare across West Asia, many are asking what lies ahead for the ‘Axis of Resistance’ after its leadership and some of its capabilities took important blows. 

Yet the movement’s influence does not depend on massed brigades but on dispersed networks and disruptive tactics. Across all fronts, its factions exercise greater flexibility and individual autonomy, embodying a shift toward decentralization that allows them to absorb pressure while sustaining asymmetric operations. 

Hezbollah

Disarming Hezbollah faces an almost insurmountable uphill battle and is unlikely to succeed in the near term. Beirut simply lacks the institutional muscle and political cohesion to wrest control of the group’s vast arsenal. The Lebanese Armed Forces, chronically underfunded and overstretched, cannot mount a credible, unilateral operation against Hezbollah strongholds in the south or the densely populated southern suburbs of Beirut without significant external backing either it be the U.S. or it regional allies. Hezbollah is deeply embedded in both Lebanon’s security architecture and its political system and the group is widely seen as the only reliable bulwark against repeated Israeli incursions.

Any attempt to seize arms depots risks igniting more than isolated clashes—it could trigger a broad-based uprising capable of reigniting sectarian fault lines. In effect, what starts as a disarmament push could spiral into a full-blown civil war, fracturing the fragile consensus that has held the country together for many years. Hezbollah still commands tens of thousands of fighters and an arsenal that rivals many national militaries. 

However, the group has shifted from an offensive?deterrence posture to a more cautious, defense?oriented stance. With Damascus no longer under Assad’s control, there has been reroutes of arms shipments by sea and air. Even so, Syria remains a crucial transit hub, as some actors are willing to keep supply lines open and ready to challenge central government. 

Hamas

The sustained Israeli offensive has exacted a heavy toll on Hamas’s senior commanders, rocket stockpiles, and tunnel networks, degrading its ability to launch large?scale operations. Yet the movement retains a decentralized command structure: local brigade leaders and tunnel crews continue to orchestrate ambushes. 

This guerrilla resilience means that even after major setbacks, Hamas can inflict persistent casualties on Israeli forces. Israel’s planners and their Western backers face a stark dilemma: to occupy and govern the 365 km² of Gaza would require deploying—and sustaining—tens of thousands of troops in one of the world’s most densely populated territories. Urban warfare in refugee camps and high-rise complexes multiplies the risk of Israeli casualties and civilian collateral damage, undermining both domestic support and international legitimacy. 

Also, any large-scale displacement of Gaza’s over two million Palestinians is logistically unfeasible: there are no safe corridors or host countries, and the UN relief apparatus is already overstretched. Politically, mass expulsions would provoke uproar across the Arab world, reigniting regional protests and jeopardizing Israel’s budding normalization deals. 

With no durable governance plan or regional partner ready to assume responsibility, Tel Aviv’s strategic choices narrow to a limited deterrence posture, temporary buffer zones, or negotiating a ceasefire that leaves Hamas in place. 

Ansarallah

Yemen’s conflict arena has proven uniquely intractable for the U.S. Ansarallah has weathered over two years of intensive air campaigns by U.S. and Israel, emerging with its core command structure intact. The movement’s disruptive tactics have done real damage to Israeli shipping and over all forcing shipping lines to reroute, which inflates global energy prices. Rocket and drone salvos aimed at Israel further underscore the group’s ability to project power— and signal to regional adversaries that no front is beyond their reach. 

On the opposing side, anti-Ansarllah groups backed by Western and Persian Gulf states remain hampered by disunity and resource shortfalls. Competing commanders vie for territory, and chronic funding gaps limit sustainment of complex operations. U.S. policymakers face their own constraints. Sustained airstrikes risk civilian casualties that undermine Trump’s peacemaking messaging. At the same time, there is no appetite in Washington—or among Persian Gulf partners—for committing American ground forces to what can be turned in to a quagmire. 

Despite external pressures, Yemen remains the axis’s most durable front. The Ansarllah blend of home-grown innovation, legitimacy among many Yemenis, and access to asymmetric tools means they can absorb blows and keep chipping away at strategic chokepoints. 

The Axis of Resistance has decisively entered a new era and each faction has weathered direct blows to their leadership and arsenals, yet maintain operational autonomy. As West Asia enters uncharted territory, the line between battlefield and political arena blurs. The true test will be whether U.S. and its allies can innovate faster than the Resistance Axis rebuilds. In this contested landscape, adaptability, coalition building, and nuanced diplomacy may prove as powerful as any missile or drone.