TEHRAN PAPERS

Nuclear issue from New York to Beijing

March 15, 2025 - 22:36

TEHRAN - Donya-e-Eqtesad, in an analysis, addressed the formation of a new JCPOA arrangement and wrote: The Iranian nuclear case has once again become the focus of high-level talks from New York to Beijing, which has demonstrated a new JCPOA arrangement in a 3-vs-4 confrontation.

It seems that in the next few months and ahead of schedule, the snapback mechanism and threats will become more practical, technical, and significant. This means that the parties will try to find a credible diplomatic solution for a new (nuclear) agreement or update the 2015 JCPOA agreement or prepare themselves for new risks with the possibility of an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities by the United States and Israel and a reciprocal decisive response from Iran. However, we must wait and see what response Iran will give to Trump's letter. The first assumption is that this letter is nothing more than an escalation of pressure in a new format; but the second hypothesis argues that since the letter is under review, it provides important details that take Trump’s message beyond an invitation to negotiate or a threat.

Ham Mihan: Strategy to counter maximum pressure

In a note, Ham Mihan discussed Iran’s strategy against Trump. The paper said: Donald Trump’s re-imposition of maximum pressure on Iran and his ultimatum to the Iranian government have raised concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East. However, the United States is facing an Iran that has learned lessons from the first Trump administration, so it can anticipate Trump’s policies. Iran’s strategy to counter Trump involves first forming a circle of friendly relations with neighboring countries in the Middle East. Second, strategic overture and readiness to cooperate with the West. Third, deepening relations with Russia and China, which are a support if the previous two strategies fail. Under the “neighbors first” policy, Iran has established friendly relations with the Persian Gulf countries to weaken America’s ability to strike Iran. Also, Russia and China represent Iran’s key partners, who collectively face U.S. sanctions and U.S. efforts to limit their influence. Hence, this “axis” has been trying to build economic and military relations independent of U.S. pressure.

Shargh: Peacemaking or power-showing?

Shargh wrote about the trilateral meeting in Beijing: China delicately balances support for Iran and maintaining relations with Arab countries and Trump. However, Beijing knows that it cannot completely be a supporter of one side, as this could harm its economic and political interests. Therefore, by presenting itself as a neutral but powerful mediator, China is simultaneously trying to gain the trust of Tehran and the Arab countries. This approach not only allows China to strengthen its role as a global peacemaker but also allows it to use regional rivalries to advance its strategic goals. Ultimately, China’s entry into the mediation process in the Tehran-Washington tension in the Middle East marks an important development in global diplomacy. Beijing, with a combination of economic interests and strategic goals, is trying to simultaneously prevent regional crises and take advantage of upcoming opportunities to strengthen its position against global competitors. This move will affect not only the future of the Middle East but also the balance of power in the world.

Etemad: Joining FATF is effective with revival of JCPOA

Etemad discussed the issue of the FATF in an interview with Mohammad Ali Vakili, a political activist. He said: In order to solve its fundamental economic problems, Iran must prepare the ground for the revival of the JCPOA and improve communication and economic relations with the world. In a situation where Trump has chosen the language of threats against Iran, joining the FATF may not be able to fulfill all of Iran’s demands. However, if it is combined with a revival of the JCPOA, it will greatly help improve the economic situation. The maximum benefits of the FATF for Iran will be realized when the prospect for the revival of the JCPOA becomes clear and our foreign relations enter a new level. In this case, joining the FATF and leaving the blacklist would help Iran. But in the current circumstances, joining the FATF would not be of much help to Iran. Iran must first revive the content of the JCPOA and then look for solutions that can maximize the benefits from the JCPOA. In this case, the FATF is one of the solutions that will help Iran realize its interests.

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