SHANGHAI - March 10, 2025, marks the second anniversary of the big event of the Iran-Saudi reconciliation under China’s mediation two years ago. Though sustainability was once doubted as the rivalry between the two was long and profound, the process finally proved to be steady and successful, which has contributed to the stability of the region.

The years ahead will see the new momentums of the reconciliation, but new efforts will have to be invested in. And the reconciliation will be a part of any arrangements of future regional order.
    
The last two years have seen Iran-Saudi reconciliation progressing steadily. Iran’s late president Ibrahim Raisi paid a visit to Saudi Arabia in November 2023 to participate in the conference of Islamic and Arab countries for the Palestine issue; The incumbent Iranian President Pezeshkian and Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister exchanged phone call dialogue in November 2024. The two had conducted even more frequent dialogues by different means at military and foreign ministerial levels. The three parties of Iran, Saudi and China had conducted two trilateral meetings at the level of deputy foreign ministers respectively in 2023 and in 2024.
    
The reasons contributing to the sustainability of the process are numerous, but primarily and fundamentally lies in that the reconciliation is in accordance with regional aspiration for peace and stability. After decades of clashes and frustrations, the region is in urgent need of stability, though it is still facing severe challenges as a result of Israel’s encroachment of the legitimate rights of Palestinians. What’s more, it also aligns with the macro trend of the world for peace and stability, and the Middle East is one part.
    
The significance of the reconciliation can never be emphasized enough, particularly within the context of the latest round of the Palestine-Israel conflict since October 7, 2023. The region had plunged into the most serious turmoil as a result of the conflict and its spillovers. Albeit turbulent, the region has maintained the minimal needed stability. The reconciliation should be one of the major factors among others contributing to such stability.

The reconciliation also benefited Iran and Saudi Arabia respectively in different ways. With the reconciliation, Iran has been able to enhance its diplomatic relations with its neighboring countries in a rather comfortable way, and been able to concentrate its resources on its struggle with regional mess. And Saudi Arabia has taken advantage of the reconciliation to push forward some of its most important domestic and regional agendas.
    
For the future, it should be noted that the reconciliation should be an indispensable part of regional order. Both Iran and Saudi Arabia are among the most powerful regional players in terms of political and strategic influences. Both of the two command large amounts of territories, huge populations and rich resources, and the two represent significant cultural and traditional influence. To put it another way, sustainable reconciliation will serve to maintain necessary peace and stability; confrontation as a result of disrupted reconciliation will make the region more dangerous. And the two are neighbors that will not move away.
    
Fortunately, the reconciliation is being re-empowered by new regional dynamics. Firstly, their shared support for Palestinians’ legitimate cause will drive the two working together. Though the two have different positions regarding the solution of the Palestine issue, yet the two share the same solidarity with legitimate rights of Palestinians both at national and people’s levels. 
    
It was because of the very same cause that Saudi has held several conferences on the Palestine issue since October 7, 2023, and Iran’s late President Ibrahim Raisi visited Saudi Arabia for the conference in November 2023, and the two conducted several dialogues. These indicate that interactions on Palestine issue anyway will be a new dynamic in the relations between the two. And the future will see more interactions between the two on this very important cause.
    
Secondly, awareness of maintaining security on their own will be a new momentum of the reconciliation. Actually, the success of the 2023 reconciliation largely lies in regional awareness that the security guarantee of an external actor was illusive, and it was the reconciliation, instead of the security guarantee of external powers, that has served to create a stable and peaceful neighborhood. The story of Ukraine, which the U.S. is abandoning, should be a fresh lesson for learning. Dependence on an external actor is never a real solution. A political solution to disputes could be the least costly, and reconciliation could be the best way to maintain security. Such awareness will grow stronger in the future.
    
Thirdly, the reconstruction of regional order needs the two to cooperate with each other. The last months have seen that Israel’s Netanyahu was boasting his plan to make a new Middle East order. Netanyahu’s scheme, however beautifully coated, will mean maximizations of Israel’s security and territorial interests. Whether it will be displacing Palestinians or occupying Palestinian, Lebanese or Syrian territories, it will run against the positions that have been long taken by both Iran and Saudi Arabia, and will undermine the geopolitical interests and reputations of the two. The two will have to cooperate to deliver a more balanced and fair regional order if realized. This kind of cooperation should also be new dynamics of interactions between the two.
    
All in all, the Iran- Saudi reconciliation in 2023 should be a real milestone in modern Middle East history. Its success lies in the fact that it is part of a regional aspiration for peace and stability, and the significance of the event goes far beyond the interests of the two countries. It benefits the whole region. The future will see the reconciliation to be empowered by new regional dynamics, and will be an indispensable part of regional order.
    
 

Dr. Jin Liangxiang is a senior research fellow at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (SIIS)