TEHRAN - Ankara appears to be riding a wave of euphoria following the unexpected fall of Bashar al-Assad's government last year. The country, sometimes prone to hasty and uncalculated foreign policy decisions when perceiving victory, is now targeting one of its most important neighbors – and regional rival –Tehran. In doing so, it is ignoring the blunders it has made in the past decade and sidelining the help Iran offered during times of desperation.

In a move dripping with irony, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan recently took aim at Iran in an Al Jazeera interview, seemingly faulting Tehran for helping Assad combat the very Daesh terrorists Ankara has long been suspected of bankrolling. "If this is Iran's policy in Syria, I do not think it is the correct one," Fidan declared, before levelling accusations of "instability" against Iran. He conveniently omitted any explanation as to how Iran's role in preventing the rise of a Daesh-controlled terrorist state across Syria and Iraq in the 2010s somehow equates to regional "instability." Instead, in a veiled threat, he asserted that Iran's "resources and capabilities are also available to others," adding that if Tehran seeks to protect its own "glass house" from shattering, it should think twice before "throwing stones at others”. 

Western media swiftly seized upon Fidan's remarks, framing them as a critique of Iran's "proxy strategy" – a loaded term favored by Israel and Washington to demonize Tehran's relationships with regional Resistance groups. Ankara, despite its frequent pronouncements of support for the Palestinian cause, now appears to be conveniently adopting this same rhetoric.

The first Iranian official to address Fidan was the Foreign Ministry spokesman. In a post on X, Esmail Baqaei concurred that "the region must be freed from the culture of one country dominating others." He added that the only force currently ignoring this principle is the Israeli regime. 

"For the past five decades, Iran has not pursued any regional ambitions. Our sole concern has been supporting the Palestinian people and their struggle," the spokesman wrote. He then argued that the "betrayal" by certain regional actors over the past 1.5 years is the primary reason Israel has been able to perpetrate a genocide in Gaza and is now openly discussing the displacement of the remaining Palestinian population.

While Baqaei stopped short of directly naming Turkey in connection with the Gaza situation, his remarks sparked renewed scrutiny of Ankara's stance on the issue over the past 18 months. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly condemned Israel since October 2023, even threatening to deploy troops to regions under attack by the regime. Simultaneously, however, Turkey has continued shipping Azeri fuel used by Israeli fighter jets in attacks across Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, and Syria. Moreover, despite a blockade by Yemeni armed forces in the Red Sea aimed at halting the Gaza genocide by severing access to the Israeli port of Eilat, Turkey has reportedly increased its export volume to the occupied territories.

Speaking with the Tehran Times, Ebrahim Rezaei, spokesman for the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, offered a more pointed rebuke of what he described as Turkey's "uncalculated role" in the region. "All these years, Iran has focused on combating terrorism and the Israeli regime. Adhering to the principles of the Islamic Republic, it is only natural that we have forged ties with Resistance groups and freedom fighters in the region, and we will continue to do so. Our country has never had 'proxies," he said. 

Rezaei also stated that Iran would not passively await a "stone to hit its window," but would instead dismantle "the house" of the aggressor.

The Turkish top diplomat’s "glass house" reference has also triggered a resurgence of interest in past remarks by Iran’s Vice President for Strategic Affairs, Mohammad Javad Zarif. In an interview with Iranian media last year, Zarif recalled his time as the country's foreign minister and his involvement in Iran's efforts to thwart the 2016 coup attempt in Turkey. "I remember that night; the Turkish envoy, Martyr Soleimani, and I stayed up the entire night," he recounted, revealing the central role played by Lieutenant General Qassem Soleimani, the late commander of the elite IRGC Quds Force, in Iran's engagement with the situation. "I hope our Turkish friends do not forget those days," Zarif added.

Conflicting reports suggest that Turkey's Erdogan may have been transported to the Iranian city of Tabriz on the night of the attempted coup. While Zarif stated he believes it "unlikely" that the president was actually in Iran that night, he confirmed that Tehran was "fully prepared" to facilitate such a transfer.

Reflecting on Zarif’s comments, online observers suggested that Fidan should perhaps consider "who really resides in a glass house."

Turkey’s penchant for creating unnecessary friction 

Fidan's provocative statements to Al Jazeera created unprecedented tensions in the history of Iran-Turkey relations. However, in the past decade alone, Turkey has made numerous similar pronouncements and taken actions that it has quickly come to regret.

Ali Heidari, writing for Tasnim News Agency, has compiled a list of the most notable of these seemingly uncalculated moves:

Relations with Egypt: After the ousting of Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi in 2013, Ankara strongly criticized the new Egyptian government and called President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi a dictator, leading to the eventual expulsion of Turkey's ambassador. A decade later, Turkey had to normalize relations with Egypt at a high cost, without achieving any of its initial demands.

Downing of the Russian bomber: In 2015, Turkey shot down a Russian bomber near the Syrian-Turkish border, leading to severe sanctions from Russia. Initially, Ankara dismissed the consequences, but after significant economic losses, the Turkish president apologized to his Russian counterpart and guaranteed such incidents would not happen again.

American pastor's arrest: In 2016, the arrest of American pastor Andrew Brunson on charges of involvement in the coup led to tensions with the United States. Despite Ankara’s initial defiance, it eventually released Brunson in 2018 without gaining any concessions from the U.S., drawing criticism within Turkey.

S-400 missile system purchase: In 2017, Turkey's decision to purchase the S-400 missile system from Russia triggered a series of repercussions from the United States. Washington responded by sanctioning Turkey, canceling the sale of F-35 fighter jets, and expelling Ankara from the joint production program for the aircraft. 

This U.S. action reportedly cost Turkey an estimated $12 billion annually. Since then, Turkey has sought to either purchase the F-35 fighter jets or recoup its financial losses; however, facing continued obstacles in acquiring the F-35, Ankara has requested to purchase F-16s instead.

To date, the U.S. has ignored these requests. The policy that led to U.S. sanctions, particularly given the S-400's unclear operational status and alleged lack of use, has faced significant criticism within Turkey.

Refugee crisis: Turkey's decade-long policy of supporting terrorist groups in Syria led to the displacement of millions of refugees, many of whom sought refuge in Turkey. This situation has put enormous pressure on Turkey's social fabric, leading to frequent clashes between Turkish citizens and Syrian refugees. The refugee crisis has also been a huge contributing factor to runaway inflation in Turkey, which stood at almost 70% last year. 

Jamal Khashoggi incident: In 2018, Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi opposition figure who had fled the country, vanished after entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. In the aftermath of the failed coup, Turkey, whose relations with Saudi Arabia were already strained, attempted to capitalize on the situation. For a year, Turkish media and officials incrementally released information regarding Khashoggi's fate, thereby exerting pressure on Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. 

However, through his alliances with Western powers, bin Salman effectively mitigated any lasting repercussions on Saudi Arabia. Consequently, Saudi Arabia and Turkey severed diplomatic ties until 2023. While Ankara’s strategy succeeded in generating media pressure on bin Salman, the resulting severed relations cost Turkey billions of dollars.

Relations with the UAE: In 2021, Turkey also severed relations with the UAE, with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu alleging that the UAE had played a significant role in supporting the 2016 coup plotters by providing $3.5 billion in financial assistance. However, within a few years, economic pressures forced Turkey to normalize relations with the UAE to avert further financial losses.

Syria: Tehran's loss, not necessarily Ankara's gain

The recent inflammatory remarks against Iran by the Turkish Foreign Minister, echoing similar statements made in recent months, appear to stem directly from the evolving situation in Syria.

While Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was an ally of Iran, the relationship mostly deepened because of Daesh. Iran’s presence in Syria during the 2010s was necessary, as it prevented Iranians from having to fight ISIS within their own borders one day. The remnants of Daesh that are now trying to gain power in Syria have been trying to rebrand themselves, knowing that any pivot towards extremism could lead to the same reaction Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon showed during the 2010s. 

Sources have informed the Tehran Times that Iran alerted Assad to the impending November terrorist offensive in northwestern Syria, but the president reportedly dismissed the warnings. He, along with the rebel factions themselves, apparently underestimated the potential for an offensive in Aleppo to lead to his downfall.

This unexpected turn of events seems to have emboldened Turkey beyond what is realistic. While Iran faces a complex relationship with the new Syrian leadership, the future of the Turkish-backed acting president in Syria remains uncertain and potentially precarious. 

Since the fall of Assad, Israel has launched extensive attacks on Syria’s military and defense infrastructure, as well as its scientific and research centers, reportedly destroying over 90% of them. Furthermore, Israel has reoccupied all of the Golan Heights and, through continued expansionist policies, has seized control of significant and strategic portions of Syrian territory.

Beyond Israel's growing presence, Syria faces a genuine risk of disintegration, an outcome that would undoubtedly be supported by Tel Aviv. Kurdish separatists, harboring deep resentments toward Turkey, represent one significant group and could potentially even lay claim to Turkish territory in the future. Furthermore, increased violence will likely trigger further displacement within Syria, leading to a larger influx of refugees into Turkey and exacerbating Ankara's existing economic challenges.

Leaders in Turkey should carefully consider their past experiences before prescribing foreign policy solutions to others and reflect on whether they are once again acting too hastily, this time in regards to Iran.