MADRID – Mohammad Javad Zarif, the Strategic Vice President of Iran, delivered a lecture at the headquarters of the Institute for Iranian and Eurasian Studies titled “World Order and Iran's Foreign Policy.”

At the beginning of his speech, Zarif briefly referenced the debates from the 55th World Economic Forum in Davos (2025), highlighting that much of the discussion centered on the "restoration of hard power," with particular emphasis on the potential return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency.

The distinction between hard power and soft power was first introduced in the 1990s by American political scientist Joseph Nye. In general, Nye defines power as the "ability to influence others to achieve desired outcomes." Hard power, in contrast, is based on coercion, using incentives or threats to exert control. Its main tools include military intervention, coercive diplomacy, and economic sanctions.

According to Zarif, many of the attendees at the Davos Forum agreed that Trump seeks to restore hard power, but by using tariff tools instead of military resources, which was already anticipated in Nye's hard power theory.

In 2018, during his first term, Donald Trump implemented the "America First" agenda, which included imposing new tariffs on various imports. Among the affected products were solar panels and washing machines, with rates ranging from 30% to 50%, while steel was taxed at 25% and aluminum at 10%. Although the primary target of these measures was China, the tariffs were also extended to imports from other countries.

In his new term, Trump plans to impose tariffs of up to 60% on imports from China and between 10% and 25% on products from countries like Mexico and Canada, among other measures.

A clear example of the hard power policy through economics occurred during the so-called "mini economic crisis" with Colombia. After the Colombian government refused to accept two military flights carrying illegal Colombian migrants to the United States, Trump responded by announcing a 25% tariff on Colombian products, along with visa restrictions for Colombian citizens. The measure caused tension in bilateral relations, but ultimately Colombia agreed to accept the flights, leading to the suspension of the tariffs by the United States.

The former Minister of Foreign Affairs also addressed the debates surrounding the post-bipolar world, highlighting that several participants agreed that Europe seeks to implement a relative hegemony of the United States. This means that Europe desires to maintain an influential relationship with Washington, but without it exerting total control, aiming for shared leadership and a balance of power where European powers have a voice and influence in global decisions. However, according to Zarif, this vision is not shared by Donald Trump.

In this context, Zarif recalled that over the years, he has pointed out in several conferences that many Americans and observers believed that an American order had been established and that the unipolar world had been consolidated. However, in his opinion, this was merely an illusion about the unipolar order, rather than a reality. 

In this erroneous scenario, the United States believed they had truly won the Cold War, that the Soviet Union had lost and become a "slave." But, according to Zarif, this was not true, as international relations are not zero-sum games.

For Zarif, the bipolar order has collapsed, and with that collapse, events have emerged that go far beyond the disappearance of this system. One such event is the rise of what he refers to as the "post-international world," also known as the "networked world." In this new scenario, new actors have emerged, leading to the concept of the "post-Western world," where power dynamics have diversified and are no longer exclusively dominated by the United States or the West.

Regarding the new international order, Zarif stated: "A new bipolar system will not emerge in the international arena in the near future. Some interpret this situation as the beginning of chaos, but in my opinion, chaos will not necessarily unfold. Instead, we are facing a new international reality, where 'temporary alliances' will arise, rather than 'permanent blocs.'" According to Zarif, the fact that there is no longer a system of fixed loyalties can be understood within these flexible and specific alliances. However, he added that some of these alliances, due to their nature and objectives, may be more durable.

During his lecture at the Institute for Iranian and Eurasian Studies, the current strategic vice president also pointed out that certain sectors outside of Iran, including Zionists and some Iranian opposition groups, seek to consolidate the idea that Iran is at its weakest and simultaneously most dangerous. This perception has spread so much that, as Zarif recounted, during one of the sessions at Davos, a senior European official repeatedly insisted that Iran had weakened in recent years. 

"In the end, I said to him: let's assume your statement is correct, and that Iran has weakened. How can you continue claiming that Iran is disrupting peace in the Middle East? If, according to you, we no longer have the power to do so?" Zarif explained. In these discussions, his central argument was that the lack of peace in the Middle East is not due to Iran, but rather the unresolved issue of Palestine.

Zarif continued his intervention by pointing out that some argue Iran has been "weakened" and that the only remaining option would be to develop nuclear weapons, justifying military action. However, he emphasized that recent statements by Donald Trump suggest that he is not so convinced by these arguments.

According to Zarif, Trump’s position is not fixed, and depending on the circumstances, he might change his paradigms. In this regard, Zarif highlighted that Trump might not see Iran as an immediate nuclear threat and, instead of opting for confrontation, might consider reaching an agreement.

Regarding the future of the United States, the former Foreign Minister emphasized that while the country will remain the world’s leading power, it will experience a decline if it does not maintain its hegemony. In this context, he explained that Europeans claim they want the United States to remain the hegemonic power, but he pointed out that the U.S. itself has no interest in maintaining that position.

Zarif also stressed, "We do not need to establish a friendly relationship with the United States; instead, we must ensure that when other countries decide to engage with us, they do not feel the need to confront the United States, because if that happens, they will not choose us."

Finally, Zarif addressed the European concern about Iran’s alleged support for Russia in the Ukraine war, a key issue for Europe that needs to be resolved. He also criticized what he sees as the repetition of U.S. and Israeli narratives within Iran, particularly when the government is labeled a "traitor" for the possibility of engaging in negotiations with the United States.