TEHRAN – On January 20, 2025, Donald Trump signed an executive order suspending U.S. foreign development assistance for 90 days, citing the need to reassess the efficiency and alignment of U.S. aid programs with his “America First” agenda.

The State Department quickly implemented the directive, freezing most ongoing foreign aid initiatives and pausing new funding efforts.  

While this move has been framed as a routine review, it has triggered an immediate wave of concern among Iranian opposition figures and exile groups. Publicly, they argue that the aid freeze will intensify human rights abuses in Iran by cutting off support for independent media and civil society organizations. 

However, a closer look suggests that these concerns are merely a cover—the real issue is that the decision threatens long-standing efforts to engineer regime change in Iran through U.S. financial and strategic backing.  

In September 2024, leaked internal emails and documents obtained by The Grayzone revealed the extent to which U.S. policymakers had been orchestrating efforts to reshape Iran’s opposition movement. The leaks point to a covert initiative, spearheaded by Carl Gershman, the former director of the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), to construct an "Iran Freedom Coalition"—a network of pro-Western activists and neoconservative operatives with the ultimate goal of destabilizing the Islamic Republic system.  

The documents also provided an accompanying list of “individuals involved or to be involved” in the IFC. Among the names listed as key figures in this coalition were Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last monarch and pretender to the country’s now non-existent throne; Masih Alinejad, a U.S.-based journalist, and Mariam Memarsadeghi, a regime-change advocate who has openly called for direct U.S. intervention in Iran.

The NED, originally established during the Reagan administration as a tool for U.S. intelligence operations, has a long history of funding groups aimed at toppling foreign governments. From backing anti-government factions in Nicaragua and Venezuela to funding opposition movements in Hong Kong, the organization has played a key role in advancing Washington’s geopolitical interests under the guise of promoting democracy.  

The leaked documents suggest that similar tactics were being deployed in Iran, with U.S. government funds channeled into opposition networks to sustain pressure on the Iranian establishment. This revelation casts doubt on the claim that U.S. assistance was primarily about protecting human rights. It appears that, in reality, the funding was an extension of Washington’s broader strategy for regime change.  

The impact of Trump’s decision is perhaps best reflected in the reaction of Dana Stroul, a U.S. official who used to be Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (DASD) for the Middle East. In a recent post on X, Stroul lamented the aid suspension, writing:  

"-Last year $65M for human rights, free flow of information, and civil society organizing. Want to enable “maximum support” policy for Iranian people as part of “maximum pressure” against Iranian regime? Hard to do with 0 resources."  

While she frames the funding in terms of human rights and democracy promotion, she explicitly ties it to the broader “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran. Her use of the term “maximum support” directly aligns with the rhetoric of Reza Pahlavi who has repeatedly called for greater U.S. assistance in bringing about regime change.  

For years, Pahlavi and his allies have insisted that international backing is necessary to weaken Iran’s ruling system. Stroul’s post indicates that U.S. officials were actively considering this approach, treating financial aid as a tool for advancing Washington’s strategic objectives rather than simply supporting civil society. Now, with Trump’s aid freeze in place, those who depended on U.S. resources to push for regime change are suddenly left scrambling.  

The opposition’s frantic response: a crisis of dependence
  
The abrupt halt in U.S. funding has triggered a wave of anxiety among Iranian opposition figures, particularly those in exile.  

Within days of Trump’s executive order, opposition activists and media outlets rushed to warn that the aid freeze would worsen human rights conditions in Iran. Yet, their response suggests a far deeper concern—the sudden loss of a crucial financial lifeline.  

Iranian exile groups have long claimed to be independent, grassroots movements representing the will of the Iranian people. However, the overwhelming distress following Trump’s order suggests otherwise.  

As Trump’s review of foreign aid continues, the future of these U.S.-sponsored efforts remains uncertain. However, one thing is clear: the temporary withdrawal of U.S. assistance has forced a moment of reckoning for Iran’s opposition.