The assassination of General Igor Kirillov, the commander of Russia's Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Defense Forces, along with his aide in Moscow, has sparked intense speculation and discussions regarding the forces behind this bold operation. Kirillov was killed by an explosive device hidden in a motorcycle outside a residential building. The device was remotely detonated as he exited the building. While the Russian Investigative Committee has accused Akhmad Kurbanov, an Uzbek citizen, of terrorism under multiple articles of the Russian Criminal Code, the implications of this event extend far beyond an isolated act of violence.

A deeper analysis reveals a complex network of geopolitical maneuvers and covert operations, potentially involving multiple actors, with the assassination unit of the Israeli Mossad emerging as the primary suspect. The rapid attribution of responsibility by Ukrainian sources to the BBC raises further questions about the true nature of the incident, suggesting a multi-layered narrative designed to obscure the real organizers behind it.

The operational precision and method of execution bear striking similarities to patterns observed in assassinations attributed to Mossad. Historically, the intelligence agency of the Israeli entity has employed such precise tactics in high-risk operations targeting figures in Lebanon and Syria. These incidents often involve advanced technology, sophisticated planning, and a network of collaborators to carry out missions with minimal risk to the agents involved.

The selection of General Kirillov as a target further underscores the strategic significance of the assassination. As a pivotal figure in Russia's defense apparatus, Kirillov's role extended beyond national security; he was an integral part of Russia's global military influence. His death not only destabilizes a crucial aspect of Russian defense but also sends a broader message to the Kremlin about vulnerabilities within its security apparatus.

Geopolitical foundations: Ukraine and the Zionist entity

Ukraine's adoption of responsibility for the assassination, while plausible on the surface, serves as a smokescreen concealing the truth. The Ukrainian government has every reason to portray itself as capable of striking at the heart of Russian power, especially amidst the ongoing conflict. However, the complexity of the operation points to the involvement of a more experienced entity. Ukrainian intelligence, despite its growing capabilities, lacks a proven track record of conducting complex overseas assassinations with the precision demonstrated in Moscow.

Here, the shadow of Israeli Mossad looms large. The Zionist entity's interest in undermining Russian influence, particularly in regions like Syria, aligns with its strategic objectives. Over the years, the Israeli regime has sought to curtail Russian support for governments and factions hostile to its security. In Syria, for instance, cooperation between the Zionist entity and Ukraine in intelligence sharing and drone warfare has been evident. This cooperation has significantly disrupted Russian operations, forcing Moscow to reassess its commitments and strategies in the region.

The Syrian example is illustrative. Through joint efforts, the Israeli regime and Ukraine have successfully eroded Russian dominance, compelling it to withdraw troops and military assets from strategic locations such as Tartus and Latakia. Therefore, the assassination of a senior Russian official like Kirillov can be seen as an extension of this broader campaign to weaken Russia's global footprint.

Strategic implications for Russia

The assassination reveals a critical vulnerability in Russia's security framework. If external actors can target one of the most protected figures within Russia's military hierarchy, the implications for national security are dire. Even more alarming is the potential for a domino effect, with more military and political leaders becoming targets in a calculated effort to destabilize the Kremlin's authority.

Russia's response to this incident will be pivotal in determining its future security posture. Ignoring the broader implications of this assassination would embolden adversaries to carry out similar operations. Conversely, a strong and calculated response, whether diplomatically or operationally, would deter further aggression.

Deconstructing Mossad’s modus operandi

Mossad's reputation as one of the world's most effective intelligence agencies is built on its ability to carry out extraterritorial assassinations. It has consistently demonstrated its willingness to act unilaterally in pursuit of the Israeli regime's security interests, which now perceives Russian influence as a challenge.

The similarities between Kirillov’s assassination and previous Mossad operations are hard to ignore. The use of remotely detonated explosive devices, combined with the precise selection of a target whose elimination would yield maximum strategic gains, indicates a level of expertise rarely seen outside the intelligence apparatus of the Zionist entity. Furthermore, the timing of the assassination, amidst escalating tensions between Russia and Western-allied forces, adds another layer of complexity, serving multiple geopolitical interests simultaneously.

The broader context of Zionist entity-Russia relations

Despite occasional collaboration, particularly in managing the delicate balance of power in Syria, the Israeli regime and Russia remain at odds on several fronts. Moscow’s support for regimes and groups hostile to the Israeli entity has long been a point of contention. Conversely, the Israeli regime’s alliance with Western powers and its covert support for Ukrainian forces have further strained relations.

The assassination of Kirillov may signal a shift in this dynamic. It would represent a bold statement from the entity, indicating its willingness to confront Russian interests directly when they conflict with its own. Such a move would not be without risks, as it could provoke a severe response from Moscow. However, the benefits, ranging from eliminating a key Russian figure to psychologically impacting the Kremlin, might outweigh the potential repercussions.

The role of psychological warfare

Beyond the immediate tactical advantages, the assassination serves as a powerful tool of psychological warfare. By targeting a figure of Kirillov's stature, the perpetrators sent a clear message to Russia: no one, regardless of rank or importance, is beyond the reach of assassination. This has profound implications for morale within Russia's military and political elite, introducing an element of fear and uncertainty.

The psychological impact extends to Russia’s adversaries as well. For Ukraine, the operation, whether directly involved or not, acts as a morale booster, showcasing the ability to strike deep within enemy territory. For the Zionist entity, it reinforces its image as an entity capable of decisive and effective action against its adversaries.

A Call for Strategic Reassessment

For Russia, the assassination of General Kirillov is a wake-up call. The Kremlin must recognize the multifaceted threat posed by actors such as Mossad and its allies. This necessitates a comprehensive reassessment of Russia’s security policies, both domestically and internationally.

Domestically, Russia must address the gaps that allowed such an operation to succeed. Strengthening counterintelligence capabilities, enhancing surveillance measures, and investing in preventative technologies are essential steps. Internationally, Russia must recalibrate its diplomatic and military strategies to counter the growing influence of its adversaries, particularly the Zionist entity.

In the short term, Moscow may seek retaliation, either through its own covert operations or by exerting pressure on entities it holds responsible. However, this approach will only succeed if accompanied by more assertive policies toward the Israeli regime.

Mohammad Ali Senobari is director of the New Vision Center for Strategic Studies