TEHRAN –Due to dry weather conditions between January and May 2025, when the main wheat crops are at vegetative stages, La Niña event is anticipated to have an adverse impact on yields in Iran, according to a country analysis report released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) on November 22.

La Niña is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, compared to El Niño, which is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific.

El Niño and La Niña are opposite extremes of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which refers to cyclical environmental conditions that occur across the Equatorial Pacific Ocean.

During El Niño, precipitations are more than normal in fall and winter, while in La Niña, the rains are less and the temperature is higher than normal. 

According to the Metrological Organization, the country is forecast to receive less than normal rainfall and experience above-normal heat from the start of the second month of autumn (October 22) to the end of the first month of winter (January 19, 2025).

From the beginning of the current water year (September 22) till October 21, rainfalls were mainly distributed in the southern part of Alborz as well as the northern part of the country. 

The average rainfall was recorded to be about 38 percent less than normal, ISNA quoted Ahad Vazifeh, an official with Metrological Organization, as saying.

In the same period, the temperature was about 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above normal average, he added.

Most of the numerical weather prediction models have forecast below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperature to continue for the next five or six months. They are not due to El Niño and La Niña, but neutral conditions, Vazifeh noted.

The country is predicted to go through weak La Niña conditions during autumn and winter as the water temperature in the tropical Pacific Ocean will not drop significantly.

For the upcoming 2024/25 season, the government plans to raise the wheat production level from the previous year, with the aim to achieve self-sufficiency by providing support to farmers and increasing the procurement price to IRR 20 500/kg of wheat, encouraging farmers to expand the planted area.

The wheat harvest, completed at the end of September 2024, is estimated at 14 million tonnes, about 10 percent above the five-year average.

The large outturn in 2024 mainly reflects favourable rainfall amounts across the producing regions, coupled with sustained governmental support through the provision of subsidized inputs, low-interest rate loans, and technical training during sowing and harvesting. In addition, the guaranteed government procurement price of IRR 17 500 /kg for wheat, about 50 percent higher than the previous year, prompted farmers to plant large areas, further contributing to the above-average wheat harvest.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, as of mid-October 2024, the government procured over 12 million tons of wheat, around 16 percent year-on-year increase.

Cereal production in 2024 is estimated at 22.4 million tonnes, about 10 percent above the average.

In the key cereal-producing Khuzestan Region, planting wheat and barley crops is expected to start in mid-November 2024.

The government has allocated water supply to irrigate about 650,000 hectares, while about 300,000 hectares will rely on rainfall.

MT/MG