TEHRAN – U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is reportedly poised to unleash a renewed "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran. The Trump team aims to “bankrupt” Iran in his second term, according to a report published by the Financial Times. 

The report, citing a national security expert close to the transition team, says executive orders targeting Iran, mainly its oil exports, could be signed on the first day Trump enters office. 

The so-called "maximum pressure" campaign refers to a set of policies initiated against Iran in 2018 after Trump withdrew Washington from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The deal signed in 2015 limited Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for the termination of economic and financial sanctions. Trump called the deal a “disaster” and said he was going to make sure Iran would never develop nukes, promising that he would limit Iran’s regional influence in the meantime. 

What did Trump target during his first term?

Since 1979, Iran has faced a continuous barrage of sanctions. The Trump administration's "maximum pressure" campaign wasn’t so much about inventing new bans but drastically expanding the reach and enforcement of previous or existing ones.

After withdrawing the U.S. from the JCPOA, Trump immediately brought back sanctions on Iran's energy, shipping, shipbuilding, automotive, and petroleum sectors in an executive order issued on August 6, 2018. The key difference was the aggressive use of what’s known as "secondary sanctions," which penalized foreign entities for conducting business with Iran, regardless of whether those transactions violated their own domestic laws. 

The goal was to significantly pressure international actors to comply with U.S. sanctions.

In May 2019, the Trump administration targeted Iran's metals industry — its second-largest export revenue source — by tightening sanctions on its iron, steel, aluminum, and copper sectors. This included sanctions against any foreign financial institutions facilitating significant transactions related to these sectors.

A third major executive order under Trump targeted the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) and any entity or individual conducting financial transactions with it. The stated aim was to curb Iran's ballistic missile production, weapons that the then U.S. Special Representative for Iran, Brian Hook, believed only existed thanks to Photoshop. 

The succeeding Biden administration, despite expectations, did not put an end to Trump’s policies. All sanctions were kept in place, with hundreds more added, according to Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

Did Trump’s policies work?

“The effectiveness of U.S. sanctions against a foreign government is measured not by the economic damage inflicted,” said Amir Ali Abolfath, an expert on North American affairs. “But by the extent to which the sanctions achieve their policy goals and alter the target government's behavior.”

A look at statistics before the launch of the “maximum pressure” campaign shows even though Trump made it more complicated for Iran to make money through its oil and metals exports, it did not manage to reduce them to the point Iran would have to alter its policies.  

"Iran produces strategically important goods," explained Abolfath. "As long as demand exists, those goods will find a market. While Iran no longer sells oil to Europe, increased sales to China — willing to withstand U.S. pressure due to discounted prices — demonstrate this. The same principle applies to Iranian metal exports."

“There is no doubt that Trump and Biden gave Iran a difficult time. But did they manage to achieve their goals? Absolutely not,” Abolfath stated. “Iran's uranium enrichment level has increased from 3% to 60%, and its weapons capabilities have advanced significantly over the past seven years. You don’t see its bond with Resistance forces any weaker than it was either.”

When it comes to domestic needs, Iran successfully reduced its dependence on European and allied partners (like Korea and Japan) by finding alternative suppliers. The withdrawal of European automakers led to a surge in Chinese car imports, establishing Iran as a major market. Furthermore, Iranian engineers and experts independently completed gas and oil field development projects previously reliant on Western collaboration. This self-reliance eventually extended to other previously import-dependent industries like food and medicine. 

What’s there other than sanctions?

A central tenet of Trump's West Asia policy from 2017 to 2021 involved attempting to drive a wedge between Arab nations and Iran, while simultaneously positioning Israel as a key regional security partner.

This approach is now considerably less viable. Iran's improved relations with countries such as Saudi Arabia, and ongoing efforts to normalize ties with others like Egypt, undermine this strategy. Furthermore, the October 7th attacks dispelled any notion of Israeli invincibility, and the regime’s actions over the past year made the continuation of Trump-era normalization agreements ("Abraham Accords") a distant possibility. 

Experts believe the only other untested option — the military one —carries immense risk. Such action could trigger devastating consequences for the West, potentially leading to widespread disruption of oil supplies, attacks on Western bases in West Asia, and a fundamental shift in Iran's nuclear policy.

"Washington must eventually recognize that pressure alone won't achieve its goals regarding Iran," Abolfath concluded. "Addressing American concerns requires acknowledging Iran's as well. A win-win solution is the only off-ramp out of this logjam.”