Will Trump’s victory strengthen Netanyahu’s bet on achieving a worthy victory?
BEIRUT - The people under the yoke of the US-led Israeli genocidal war are fully aware that any American president - Republican or Democrat - seeks only to advance Israeli interests, even if it is not completely in line with their geostrategic interests.
Despite everything the Democratic administration has done in terms of arming, supporting, backing, and directly participating in the Gaza genocide, Netanyahu hopes that the victory of the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, will lead to a qualitative shift in relations between Tel Aviv and Washington and guarantee him an “absolute victory.”
Netanyahu also hopes that Trump will quickly facilitate the complete occupation of the Palestinian territories - Gaza and the West Bank - and perhaps Lebanon as well.
With great concern, however, experts worry that Trump’s term may not serve the war on Gaza and Lebanon, which may expand to Iran. They warn against excessive optimism, especially since Trump’s positions are often volatile and ambiguous.
Given the heroic operations of the steadfast and determined resistance movements, it does not seem that the war will be long, especially after Yoav Galant's dismissal.
Galant's dismissal has nothing to do with the dispute between him and Netanyahu over war tactics, but rather with Netanyahu's stubbornness and insistence on forgetting about the prisoners of war held by the Palestinian resistance; negotiating on his own conditions; concentrating on Gazan-occupied areas; and refusing to recruit the Haredim (the same reason for his first dismissal in March 2023).
In order to preserve his government coalition, Netanyahu had to expedite Galant's dismissal, as the Haredim are seeking to pass a legislation exempting them from military service, otherwise, they would not endorse the budget and thus Netanyahu’s government would fall apart.
Further, Netanyahu also fears the repercussions of the scandal of the leaks of his office. Besides, it is expected that the Chief of Staff, Herzi Halevi, and the head of the Shin Bet, Ronen Bar, will be dismissed due to their major role in the leaks. Netanyahu is also expected to dismiss Gali Baharav-Miara, the government's legal advisor.
One year after the ongoing war, Galant believes that the war on Lebanon is nearing its end due to its socio-economic repercussions; Hamas no longer poses an existential threat to the occupying entity; there is no point in occupying some areas in Gaza; the exchange of prisoners of war is a must; and recruiting the Haredim is pivotal (as he signed an order to recruit 7,000 Haredim for compulsory service, which Netanyahu considered a threat to his government).
Unlike the right-wing coalition, the anti-Netanyahu colonial settlers are seriously concerned about his authoritarian and dictatorial tendencies and its repercussion as they fear that Netanyahu will excessively violate local laws. Hence, in the coming period, protests are expected to continue within the entity, but not with the same momentum as in the past, as a large percentage of the reserve soldiers are in military service.
The Israeli political division does not revolve around the usefulness or legitimacy of the current war, but rather around the mechanisms that can restore deterrence and achieve what Netanyahu has failed to achieve. Will Trump save Netanyahu? It is a challenging question given Trump’s unpredictable psycho-political fluctuations.
Whatsoever, the only hope for the resistance’s loyalists lies in the achievements of their heroes on the battlefield.
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