MADRID- After the operation "Al-Aqsa Flood" in the early hours of October 7, 2023, which marked the beginning of a genocide in Gaza, every new development has raised concerns about the expansion and dimensions of this conflict over the past ten months. 

The gradual involvement of all components of the Resistance Axis, from Hezbollah to Ansarullah and paramilitary groups based in Iraq, has led analysts to believe that Israel will spare no efforts to engage the main pillar of this Axis, Tehran. Using the environment created after Operation "Flood," Israel has continued to attempt to provoke a military confrontation between Iran and the United States.

In this context, Israel has carried out several actions deemed openly provocative by Tehran. First, on December 25 of last year, Israel launched three missiles from the occupied Golan Heights, assassinating Sayyed Razi Mousavi, who was responsible for supporting the resistance in Syria. Mousavi, who had previously been identified on July 4, 2022, by Israel's Channel 14 as "the director of the office of communication between Damascus and Tehran and the brain behind the transfer of equipment from Damascus to ammunition storage facilities in Syria or to Hezbollah in Lebanon," was the target of this attack. Iran interpreted this assassination as the first attempt to draw Tehran into the battlefield. General Esmail Qaani stated, "They assassinate martyr Razi Mousavi because they could not achieve anything on the Gaza battlefield, and Iran will not fall into their traps."

The second act of provocation occurred on April 1, when the Iranian consulate in Damascus, located next to the embassy, was attacked with six missiles fired from F-35 aircraft. In this attack, Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the third-in-command of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, died, making him the most significant figure to be assassinated since Commander Qasem Soleimani's death.

The most recent military attack by Israel against Iran was the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, head of Hamas's political bureau in Tehran. According to the third statement from the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, "The attack was carried out with a short-range projectile with a warhead of approximately 7 kg, causing a violent explosion from outside the perimeter of the guest residence."

This strategy of targeted assassinations has been used by Israel for decades. The Mossad has a long history of targeting Palestinians and other opponents of Israel in Europe, Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, and Iran. This same strategy is employed both in Gaza and in the West Bank. However, if the ultimate goal of this strategy of assassinations is to weaken the groups opposed to the colonization of Palestine, this strategy has failed and will continue to fail in the future. Every person assassinated has had a successor.

The Most Significant Assassination Operations by Israel

1973: An Israeli operational team, led by Ehud Barak, who would later become Prime Minister of Israel, conducted an attack in Beirut. During this operation, Kamal Adwan, a member of the Palestinian National Council in the West Bank; Mohammed Yousef Najjar, an operative member of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO); and Kamal Nasser, a prominent poet and spokesperson for the PLO, were assassinated. This attack was part of a series of killings of Palestinian leaders carried out by Israel following the events of the Munich Olympics.

1988: In the late 1980s, Khalil al-Wazir, also known as "Abu Jihad" and a military leader of the PLO, was assassinated in Tunisia. Al-Wazir was Yasser Arafat's deputy in the PLO. The news of his assassination became public in 2012.

1992: On February 16, Sayyed Abbas al-Musawi, one of the founders and the second Secretary-General of Hezbollah, was killed while traveling to Jibsheet to attend a commemorative ceremony. His convoy was attacked by Israeli helicopters, resulting in the deaths of Musawi, his wife, and his son.

1995: On October 26, Fathi Shaqaqi, one of the founders of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, was assassinated in Malta by two motorcyclists. Shaqaqi had traveled to Libya to assess the situation of Palestinian refugees. Israel sought to weaken the opposition to the Oslo process, including the Islamic Jihad and Hamas.

1996: On January 5, Israel executed the assassination of Yahya Ayyash, known as "The Engineer," in an attempt to curb the rising operations of Hamas against Israel. Ayyash died when his mobile phone, rigged as a bomb, exploded. Following his death, Hamas intensified its attacks.

1997: Israel attempted to assassinate Khaled Meshaal, one of Hamas' leaders, under the orders of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Mishka Ben-David, head of the assassination team, described how agents prepared to use a poisonous spray against Meshaal. However, the intervention of Meshaal's daughter and the driver led to the agents being arrested by Jordanian authorities. Netanyahu negotiated with Jordan's King Hussein to release the Mossad agents and provide the antidote. King Hussein had threatened to cancel the recently signed peace treaty with Israel. Israel also had to release 20 Palestinian prisoners.

2002: On July 22, Salah Shehada, the second military leader of Hamas, was killed in an Israeli airstrike with a one-ton bomb targeting the building where he lived with his wife and 14-year-old daughter. The attack left 150 civilians injured and caused several deaths.

2004: Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, founder and leader of Hamas, was assassinated in Gaza on March 22. Yassin had spent several years in Israeli prisons. He was arrested in 1983 and sentenced in 1989, but was released in 1997 in an agreement between Israel and King Hussein of Jordan. After prayer, while leaving the mosque, an Israeli helicopter attacked him, resulting in his death along with several of his companions. Ismail Haniyeh, then head of Sheikh Yassin's office, assumed leadership of Hamas. Shortly thereafter, Abdelaziz Rantisi was killed in an Israeli attack while traveling by car in Gaza on April 17, 2004. Rantisi, known for his staunch stance against Israel, died three days after a meeting between U.S. President George W. Bush and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. Gideon Meir, Israel's Deputy Foreign Minister, confirmed Israeli responsibility and warned that any successor to Rantisi would be a "legitimate target."

2008: Imad Mughnieh, a high-ranking military commander of Hezbollah, was killed in Damascus on February 12 in a joint operation by the CIA and Mossad. The attack was carried out with a bomb attached to his vehicle. Mughnieh was known as Hezbollah's military mastermind. His elimination did not halt the group's military progress. In 2015, his son, Jihad Mughnieh, was also killed in an Israeli airstrike.

2010: Mahmoud al-Mabhouh, a senior Hamas operative, was assassinated in his hotel room in Dubai by Mossad agents. Twenty-six Israeli agents, who entered Dubai with false passports and under the guise of tourists, were involved in the operation. Israeli authorities did not take responsibility for the attack. Al-Mabhouh was one of the founders of the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, Hamas' military wing, and played a crucial role in numerous operations against Israel.

2010-2012: During this period, Iranian nuclear scientists became a primary operational target for Israel. In 2010, Masoud Ali-Mohammadi, an Iranian physics professor, was killed by a remote-controlled bomb placed in his car by a motorcyclist. That same year, Majid Shahriari, a nuclear engineer, was also assassinated in Tehran. In 2011 and 2012, two more Iranian scientists, Dariush Rezaei-Najad and Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan, were similarly targeted and killed.

2023: Seyyed Reza Mousavi, a prominent commander of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), was assassinated in Syria while overseeing "support to the resistance." Mousavi died as a result of an Israeli attack in the Zaynabiyah area of Damascus. He was one of the most experienced Iranian military figures in Syria and a close collaborator of Generals Qassem Soleimani and Mohammad Hejazi. The Israeli attack, carried out with three missiles launched from the Golan Heights, resulted in the death of the IRGC commander.

2024: Israel conducted a drone attack in Beirut that resulted in the death of Saleh al-Arouri, the deputy head of Hamas' political bureau and the organization's leader in the West Bank. Al-Arouri, who had been released in 2007 after more than a decade of detention, was arrested again and released in 2010. In that year, he was appointed to Hamas' political bureau and rose to the position of vice president in 2017. In 2021, he became the leader of Hamas in the West Bank.

These operations reflect Israel's prolonged strategy of conducting targeted assassinations aimed at weakening its adversaries. While these tactics have succeeded in some cases, in many others, the targeted groups have managed to replace their leaders and, in some instances, even become stronger.

2024: In April, an Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus resulted in the deaths of seven senior IRGC officials. Among the victims were General Mohammadreza Zahedi, commander of the Quds Force for Syria and Lebanon, and General Mohammadi Haji-Rahimi, his successor. This attack triggered Operation "True Promise," a significant shift in Iranian strategy from "strategic patience" to "active deterrence," in an attempt to respond directly to each Israeli attack on Iranian sovereignty.

Escalation of the Conflict

Operation "True Promise" marked a fundamental shift in Iran's strategy, moving from "strategic patience" to a policy of "active deterrence." This change involved a direct response to each Israeli attack on Iranian sovereignty. In an unprecedented move, Iran launched a massive attack with over 300 ballistic and cruise missiles, complemented by kamikaze drones. Despite efforts by the United States, the United Kingdom, Jordan, and Israel to intercept most of the projectiles, some managed to hit occupied territory, causing damage to various military and intelligence facilities.

The attack on the morning of July 31 revealed that Iran's deterrent power had not yet been fully restored and demonstrated Israel's determination to continue the conflict and escalate tensions. This event occurred at a critical moment when diplomatic channels were reactivated to negotiate a ceasefire and prisoner exchange, and when Ismail Haniyeh, a prominent figure in the Palestinian resistance advocating for dialogue, was involved in the process.

The late leader of Hamas' political bureau had previously stated in an interview: "Netanyahu does not want the Gaza war to end; rather, he seeks to expand the conflict into a regional war and hopes that the United States will join the military front against Iran, serving Israel's interests. The Zionist enemy is responsible for this escalation of regional tensions, the denial of our people's rights, the continued aggression against our people and sacred sites, especially Jerusalem and Al-Aqsa, and the continuation of the war and genocide in Gaza."

From the perspective of the Islamic Republic of Iran, responding to the recent Israeli aggression has become virtually inevitable given the scale of the attack on its own capital. In recent days, various local media have reported that Iran has informed several regional mediators that there will be no room for negotiation or moderation this time.

On its part, the United States, seen by Iran as Israel's main backer, is preparing to deploy combat aircraft to the West Asia region in an attempt to deter Iran. The Pentagon has sent a squadron of U.S. Air Force fighters to the region to bolster Israel's air force. Additionally, the U.S. Department of Defense has ordered the deployment of warships and destroyers to the area.

The United States is preparing to counter a potential attack, which could take the form of missile and drone offensives similar to those launched by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps on April 13. According to U.S. sources, these attacks could be more extensive than previous ones and might involve Hezbollah.

The Consequences of the Assassination of Ismail Haniyeh and Iran's Response

In conclusion, Israel's selective assassination policies, particularly the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran during the inauguration ceremony of the new president Masud Pezeshkian, have crossed a red line for the Islamic Republic. This attack has generated a profound sense of humiliation in Iran, suggesting that the response will be proportional to the severity of the grievance.

As noted by political scientist and Hezbollah expert Amal Saad: "It will be a massive and very likely coordinated response. I believe it will force Israel to reconsider its red lines, although it will not be sufficient to trigger a full-scale war."

The scenarios discussed in the Iranian press include the assassination of a high-ranking figure in Israel or a third country, or a specific attack within Israel. Indications suggest that Iran may not undertake a direct response through its Axis of Resistance allies, although they could become involved if the retaliatory operation has a broader scope than the previously mentioned "True Promise."

Recent Israeli attacks on Iraqi resistance groups, bombings in Yemen, and increased tensions with Hezbollah have raised the possibility of a joint response. These groups might support Iran in a coordinated action against Israel, further amplifying the regional crisis and exacerbating the already tense geopolitical situation.