SHANGHAI - The China-Iran relationship is always the focus of the international community. Despite some potential inconsistencies in Iran’s foreign policy framework, the inauguration of Masoud Pezeshkian will lead the Iran-China relationship into another stage on the course of improvement. It is reasonably expected that China-Iran relations will grow stronger. The reasons could be numerous, but the following three are particularly worthy of mentioning.

Relationship has become more institutionalized

The years 2022 and 2023 saw Iran’s full membership in SCO and BRICS respectively. The significance of Iran’s admissions into these two blocs is obvious in many ways. As a great civilization and a major player in regional and international affairs, Iran, by its participation, will greatly enhance the legitimacy and functions of the two institutions. And the full SCO and BRICS memberships will also enhance Iran’s standing in the international community.

As two important members of SCO and BRICS, China and Iran will see their relationship more institutionalized. The two institutions provide abundant mechanisms for dialogue at ministerial and presidential levels. As a result, presidents of the two countries could meet several times a year. Hopefully, President Xi Jinping and President Pezeshkian will meet in Russia at the BRICS summit in the coming October, and they can frequently address the issues of common interests directly and in principle. And the ministers can address issues in much more detailed ways for implementation.

The world is entering a new stage defined by centennial change and power shift. China and Iran, as two members of the two blocs, will be able to work together with other parties to work for orderly multipolarity. And the two were also able to support the agendas of the other side at the institutional level. For instance, the two institutions have backed Iran’s legitimate quest to remove sanctions.

Relationship has been more solidly based on shared interests and concerns

 For thousands of years, the relationship between China and Iran has been based on mutual appreciation of the civilizations of the other. The last decades have seen the complementarity of the two economically, as Iran is a major oil producer while China a major consumer. And Iran is updating its infrastructure while China is good at construction. The two also have shared interests in countering terrorism and share the same position in opposing power politics and bullying.

The future will see shared interests grow. The two are also concerned about the terrible humanitarian disaster in Gaza as a result of the brutal war; the two share interests in maintaining stability in the Persian Gulf; the two are worried about the potential spillover of the Israel-Palestine conflicts as the two regard peace and stability are primarily in the interests of the two.

Also, China and Iran have to prepare for the worst weather as Donald Trump could be elected as the next U.S. president. Having anxiety over its relative decline, the U.S. could be extremely crazy and even mad in its policy, which could be a disaster for all countries in the world. China and Iran will be two of the most seriously and negatively affected. Trump claims to levy taxes on commodities produced in China and has a tough policy to contain China. On Iran, Trump could likely once again launch his notorious “maximum pressure” policy.

China and Iran will have to work together with countries sharing similar concerns. Politically, the two will have to support each other on issues related to political security. Economically, the two will have to import more commodities produced in the country of the other for sustainable development and welfare. The two will also have to cooperate on strategic issues in the West and Central Asian regions.

Relationship has become much more mature

 Despite enjoying strong and friendly ties, China and Iran did experience some levels of misunderstandings and misperceptions in some ways. There could be multiple reasons. However, these misunderstandings are mainly due to the over-expectation of the other side and poor communication between the two sides.

The recent years have seen that the two have become more reasonable about their expectations. China has gradually understood Iran’s very complicated policy-making process due to very complicated calculation often characterized by fierce debates about policy directions, for instance, the dimension of the East-West approach. And Iran has also become much more aware of the even more complex nature of the foreign policy agendas of a country with a huge population and of sophisticated calculation, for instance, on its relations with PGCC countries.

 The last decades had seen intensive matching-up interactions between the two. Misunderstandings are always there but have been significantly reduced. With closer interactions at official and academic levels, mutual trust between the two is reaching the new highest level.

 The payment issue will remain for some time. However, the China-Iran economic relations have been growing over the last couple of years. With the passage of time, the two, together with other victims of the dollar system, will sooner or later solve the problem so long as mutual trust is there.

 An Iranian government official dealing with China issues said in an IPIS conference in December 2023 that the two sides are not satisfied with the current level of economic cooperation, but are satisfied with the efforts that the two have made. This statement should be an accurate description of the status of the current China-Iran relations, indicating the maturity of the relations between the two sides.

 All in all, the relationship between China and Iran is not only between two nation-states but also between two civilizations. Within the global context defined by centennial change, shared friendship, together with shared interests and concerns, and with perseverance and patience, will deliver a very bright future for the relations between the two.

 Jin Liangxiang is a Senior Research Fellow at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (SIIS)