SHANGHAI - The Middle East saw the most turbulent tensions after Hamas’s attack on October 7, 2023, through the first half of 2024. The rationales behind the growing tensions are numerous, but the primary one should be Benjamin Netanyahu’s crazy unreachable and unreasonable objectives. Judging by Netanyahu’s incalcitrant character, the tensions will continue, and the Middle East should prepare for the worst weather.

    Shortly after the breakout of Hamas’s attack, Netanyahu and his war cabinet listed out three of the objectives of Israel’s military actions in the Gaza Strip of Palestine, namely, the rescue of the captured, the elimination of Hamas and the creation of new security mechanism in Gaza. The last one could be interpreted as actual Israel’s military occupation of the Gaza Strip. It is strongly evidenced by Netanyahu’s refusal to America’s proposal that Gaza should be governed by the Palestinian Authority led by Mahmoud Abbas the day after.
    The above-mentioned are the openly spoken objectives. Besides these, Netanyahu is having three unspoken objectives according to speeches and real actions taken by the incumbent Israeli government. 
    The first one is that Netanyahu is to achieve his personal political survival. According to various reports, Netanyahu has been charged with fraud, bribery and breach of trust in three cases filed in 2019. He can be sentenced to up to 10 years in jail and/or a fine if convicted in a bribery case. It is reasonably believed that Netanyahu is intentionally prolonging the war to sustain his political life. So long as the war is there, Netanyahu could enjoy a certain level of immunity.

    Secondly, Netanyahu intends to occupy all the territories in the Gaza Strip. It seems that Netanyahu only focuses on maximizing the interests of Israel but minimizing or even zeroing the interests of the other side. He might have this mentality himself or share this kind of mentality with his fellow rightist cabinet members. It is believed that Netanyahu is intentionally reducing the population of Gaza and making the area uninhabitable. And Israel’s behavior is widely perceived as genocide.

    Thirdly, Netanyahu intends to weaken Iran’s strength in the region. It seems that Netanyahu has no intention to refrain from Israel’s military actions. Instead, Israel has taken military actions on all fronts, particularly in the front against Hezbollah of Lebanon, and even attacked Iran’s consulate building in Syria. It is believed that the real intention of Netanyahu is to drag Iran into a direct war with Israel so as to get the U.S. involved finally. Netanyahu might seriously mean that the U.S. could launch a war toppling down Iran’s government and political system as a result of pressure from Jewish lobbyists so as to solve the so-called Iran threat overnight.

    Netanyahu might seriously believe that he can achieve all the objectives, but it is more reasonably believed that he well understands that none of these objectives could be achieved. For instance, Israel can never eliminate Hamas as Hamas is an ideology; Israel cannot weaken Iran’s strength in the region either as Iran has grown to be a systemic power in the region. 

    By laying out the unachievable objectives, Netanyahu really seeks to sustain the conflictual status of the situation, which could drive the conflicts and tensions in the direction of the worst scenario and that could be very detrimental to the security situation in the region. 

    The coming months could see even worse prospects. Netanyahu has rejected all the ceasefire proposals even by the United States, though they are all apparently in favor of Israel, and has been immune to U.S. persuasion of containing spillovers. 

    Netanyahu is actually waiting for Donald Trump to come back to power. Netanyahu could reasonably believe that Donald Trump would support any of Israel’s requests, legitimate or not, and Israel could have the best deal in bargaining with the United States. Four years ago, Trump moved the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and recognized Israel’s annexation of occupied territories and illegal settlements, which suggested that Trump could even go further in supporting Israel unconditionally.

    Therefore, Netanyahu will expectedly maintain a certain level of military actions in almost all fronts so as to finally drag the current status of tensions into the next U.S. presidency, which will make the region more turbulent. If Trump really gets elected, Netanyahu could take even bolder and crazier actions, which will push the region toward a much worse scenario. Palestinians could face more serious humanitarian disaster, and other countries in the region, including Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, could see more serious situations.

    History is always indicative. Where there is hegemony, there will be resistance, and where there is oppression, there will be struggle to counter the oppression. It is also noted that the resistance could even grow stronger than the forces of oppression. That is the very case in the present Middle East. 

    All through years of their confrontation, the forces of resistance have grown stronger. In addition to Hezbollah, the Houthis have grown to be a force with more than 30,000 troops. Syria, led by Bashar Assad, has survived the external interference, and Iran has grown to be one of the most powerful regional powers in the region. 

    Iran has demonstrated its strategic patience sufficiently in its interactions with Israel. For instance, Iran retaliated in April with more than 300 drones and missiles against Israel with a prior notice, by which Iran demonstrated its capability while limiting the impact so as to avoid escalation. Iran might continue to demonstrate its strategic patience, but Iran’s reactions could expectedly be proportionate. 

    All in all, the calculations of Israel led by Netanyahu, and his personal incalcitrant character, together with America’s indulgence could cause new level of regional escalation.  The region will have to prepare for the worst weather while expecting better.