It’s loud on the terrace of the German embassy in Tel Aviv. The noise from passing cars combines with the shrieking of sirens to make it difficult to hear German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock. But she refuses to be distracted by the din. Baerbock is in Israel for the sixth time since the beginning of the war in the Gaza Strip, before Easter, she has a message to send. A message of exasperation.

There are "1,000 arguments from different actors" for why too little food is finding its way into the Gaza Strip, says Baerbock, a member of Germany’s Green Party. She doesn’t care, she says, "who might when be right where." There’s no time for such debates, she says. "The only thing that matters," says Baerbock, "is that we get the aid into Gaza, and now."
Her tone is severe, admonishing. And demanding. The fact that Baerbock, a self-proclaimed "friend" of Israel, is speaking with such force shows that something has shifted in Germany’s relationship with the country.

When German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was in Jerusalem a week-and-a-half before his foreign minister, he too was unusually critical. In the press conference with Benjamin Netanyahu, Scholz sought to distance himself from the manner in which the Israeli prime minister is waging this war. Israel’s fight against Hamas is certainly legitimate, Scholz said. But, he added, "as important as the goal may be, is it enough to justify the horrifically high cost? Or are there other pathways to reach your aim?" It was a warning disguised as a question.
 

A stress test for Germany

"Israeli security is part of Germany’s reason of state ." It is a key statement, made by Olaf Scholz’s predecessor Angela Merkel, for Germany’s understanding of itself. Scholz repeated it when he spoke to the German parliament, the Bundestag, on October 12, five days after the Hamas attack on Israel. He also said: "At this moment, there is only one place for Germany: at Israel’s side."

"At this moment." From today’s perspective, that promise seems to have a temporary element to it. It’s almost as if Scholz already suspected the dilemma into which lasting hostilities in Gaza would plunge Germany. Are cracks now forming in Germany’s reason of state?

Following the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, Berlin’s solidarity was vast. No other European government sent representatives to Jerusalem as frequently. In international institutions, Germany placed its diplomatic heft at Israel’s service. And delivered weapons as well.

But Israel’s reaction is proving to be a test for the resilience of Germany’s support. The longer the war lasts, the stronger the trend toward disengagement has become. So far, any movement in that direction has largely been rhetorical – the sharpness of Baerbock’s tone, the doubt in Scholz’s words. But what if the suffering in Gaza grows even worse? What if Israel goes ahead with its planned ground offensive in Rafah, where 1.4 million people are packed in? Would Germany continue to stand by Israel’s side?

Some in the German government are growing skeptical, both out of concern for the civilian population in Gaza but also out of concern for Germany’s international reputation. Embassies around the world are reporting back to Berlin that Germany’s standing is suffering. Israel is in the process of isolating itself globally. Is Israel’s ally Germany facing the same fate?

Changing attitudes
Percentage of those surveyed in Germany who find Israel’s operation in the Gaza Strip to be justified or not justified

As the situation in Gaza continues to worsen, the priorities of Germany’s Middle East diplomacy are shifting. The recent Israeli attack on vehicles belonging to an aid organization, in which seven aid workers were killed, has increased doubts about the proportionality of Israel’s response. During previous visits, Baerbock focused on the fate of the Israeli hostages in Gaza, of which there are still around 130. This time, though, she concentrated on the suffering of the Palestinians.

According to official numbers from agencies under Hamas control, more than 33,600 people in the Gaza Strip have been killed since the beginning of the war. The World Bank and the United Nations have estimated that more than half of the 2.3 million people living in the Gaza Strip are "on the brink of famine." More than a million people have lost their homes.

Humanitarian questions have "become much more urgent," Baerbock said during her most recent visit to Tel Aviv. A short time before, she had paid a visit to the Kerem Shalom border crossing in southern Israel, where trucks carrying aid supplies drive into Gaza. In talking with the border officials, Baerbock apparently got the impression that the Israelis weren’t doing everything in their power to prevent a famine. She seems to believe that she needs to take the reins herself.

Baerbock instructed her ministry to hammer out a plan with Jordan to boost the number of aid convoys heading into Gaza. In mid-April, she intends to send a delegation of international law experts to discuss the conduct of the war with representatives of the Israeli government. She clearly doesn’t trust the Israeli leadership.
 

Limits of Loyalty

Yes, Baerbock emphasized, Germany bears a responsibility for Israel’s security. But Germany also has "a responsibility for international law," she said up on the terrace of the German embassy.

It was a clear warning that Germany’s loyalty to Israel is not unconditional. It is limited by international law.

Germany’s international reputation, after all, is partially based on the fact that it has drawn credible lessons from its criminal past. Stemming from that experience, German governments are more vehement in their support for human rights, democracy and the rule of law than others. But since October 7, accusations have been swirling that Berlin is applying a double standard, say sources within the government and diplomatic circles. One frequent question is: Why do you condemn Russian attacks on Ukrainian hospitals but do not do the same when Israel bombards a clinic in Gaza? The Germans don’t get very far with the observation that the Israeli onslaught was preceded by a massacre on its territory.

Government sources say that Germany is paying a high diplomatic price for its solidarity with Israel. That is especially true in the Arab world, but not only there. Berlin’s increased efforts to solidify ties with countries in Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia following the Russian invasion of Ukraine have suffered.

Nicaragua even filed a complaint against Germany at the International Court of Justice in The Hague in March, accusing the country of being complicit in genocide in the Gaza Strip. The German government does not believe the complaint will be successful, yet there is a tone of wounded pride when German diplomats talk about the proceedings. Nicaragua of all countries, hardly a beacon of freedom, is trying to show Germany up. That hurts.

“We have lost a lot of soft power in the Arab world," says Niels Annen (SPD), state secretary in the German Development Ministry.In UN organizations, German diplomats have been assailed when they speak about the atrocities committed by Hamas. During the most recent meeting of the UNESCO Executive Board in Paris on March 22, the German representative was booed by some members of the board when she spoke of the sexual violence committed by Hamas fighters. The fact that Germany’s candidate for a position as judge at the International Criminal Court ultimately failed to be elected has been interpreted by some as punishment for Berlin’s solidarity with Israel.

In confidential talks with representatives of Arab governments, the tone is actually anything but raw, say diplomats. Arab leaders have proven to be astonishingly pragmatic, they say. But pressure from the "Arab street," which strongly identifies with the Palestinians, has pushed the governments to demonstratively take a step back from Germany.

Signs of alienation

Berlin is trying to limit the damage. Which helps explain why Baerbock met the new Palestinian head of government, Mohammad Mustafa, during her most recent trip to the Middle East, despite the fact that he hadn’t yet been sworn in. Shortly before her arrival in Ramallah, the Foreign and Development Ministries back in Berlin announced that

Germany was boosting its aid for the Palestinians. Will that be enough to help Germany’s image?

Shortly after Baerbock concluded her trip, Niels Annen, state secretary in the Development Ministry, traveled to the West Bank, one of his numerous journeys to the Middle East. "We have lost a lot of soft power in the Arab world," Annen says.

In the last legislative period, Annen was a minister of state in the Foreign Ministry. At the time, after Germany had taken in hundreds of thousands of refugees during the huge influx of 2015-2016, the country’s reputation in Arab countries was solid, particularly due to the fact that Germany had accepted almost a million people from Syria. "The German government was consistently supportive of Israel’s security and its right to exist. Nevertheless, the Arab world had high expectations of Germany and relations were friendly," says Annen.

He believes that also had to do with German development aid and Berlin’s support for a future Palestinian state. Today, though, Annen feels the alienation. "At the moment, we are seeing significant disappointment, especially among our partners in civil society, over our perceived one-sided position."
Germany has foundations linked to its major political parties that often have satellite offices around the world that function as a kind of early warning system. They maintain direct contact with local groups and see shifts in moods firsthand.

And no matter who you talk to these days – whether they are from the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, which is linked to the center-right Christian Democratic Union, the Social Democratic-linked Friedrich Ebert Stiftung or the Heinrich Böll Stiftung linked to the Greens, whether in Africa or the Middle East – they are all reporting pretty much the same things: rejection, loss of trust and a more challenging working environment. Longtime partner organizations have, in some cases, suddenly broken off cooperation, events have been cancelled and there have even been calls for boycotts. Human rights advocates and peace activists are being alienated, precisely the people that Berlin actually wants to strengthen, complains one German representative.

A "massive credibility problem"

"Germany has a massive credibility problem in the Middle East," says Ronja Schiffer, who is the head of the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung’s office in Cairo. "Our civil society partners believe that Germany’s position on Israel’s conduct of war in Gaza is too uncritical. They are asking us how Germany’s approval of the military operation is consistent with a values-based and feminist foreign policy, to which the government and Foreign Minister Baerbock have pledged themselves."

The former European Parliament president and SPD chancellor candidate Martin Schulz is head of the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung. He says that the war in Gaza has made itself abundantly felt in the daily operations of the foundation. "One example: Children of our Israeli staff are involved in the war as soldiers – the war from which we must protect our staff in Gaza along with their children."

Schulz believes that the criticism of Germany is the result of a generational shift. "The German government’s unwillingness to publicly criticize Israel must increasingly be explained, because memories of the German crimes committed during the Nazi period are fading – and with them, understanding for Germany’s responsibility for Israel," he says. This responsibility continues to exist. It is, and remains, a reason of state, Schulz insists. At the same time, though, Germany is rightly expected to stand by international law. "It’s not us as a foundation that is coming under pressure, but German diplomacy as a whole," he concludes.

Berlin is trying to carefully lower the pressure. Baerbock is one valve, the SPD is the other. "Doubts are growing within the SPD about the proportionality of the operation," SPD foreign policy specialist Nils Schmid told DER SPIEGEL in late February. His comments had been cleared with leaders of both the party and the SPD parliamentary group. SPD head Lars Klingbeil echoed the sentiment. In a speech about foreign policy, he said there were "significant doubts" that Israel was respecting human rights.

Two days earlier, Chancellor Scholz had said during a meeting with Netanyahu: "We cannot stand aside and watch as Palestinians starve. That’s not us. That’s not what we stand for." Chancellery staff had worked hard on the precise wording of the statement. While Scholz hasn’t gone quite as far as Baerbock, this statement marked a clear step back from his position at the beginning of the war, when he said he had "no doubt" that Israel would uphold international law in its war against Hamas.

Many in the SPD weren’t pleased by that first statement, but they said nothing. Now, criticism of Israel’s operation is growing louder by the day.

Israel’s ambassador in Berlin, Ron Prosor, is concerned about the growing criticism. "We are closely listening to our friends in Germany and the U.S.," he says. It makes a difference, though, he says, whether critics approach Israel constructively or accusingly as Israel continues its fight against Hamas.

The war in Gaza is putting the German government to a crucial test. On the one hand, Berlin is obligated to uphold Israeli security, but on the other, it must help prevent the deaths of civilians in Gaza. Germany wants to continue delivering military equipment to Israel, but the country is also making airdrops of aid over Gaza. Government representatives aren’t even trying to resolve this contradiction. Instead, there is a lot of talk about dilemmas.

The Chancellery and the Foreign Ministry are willing to endure this tension for quite some time to come. The loss of reputation, say officials in Berlin, is the price Germany must pay for the fact that it is one of the few countries left that Jerusalem will listen to. Ties to Israel are too important, they say, both for working towards an improvement of the situation in Gaza and ultimately, for getting closer to the ultimate goal, the two-state solution.

It sounds like a plan. But perhaps it's just a mirage.