TEHRAN - Rafah is the southernmost city in the Gaza Strip, adjacent to Egypt. Located approximately ۱۰۷ kilometers west of occupied al-Quds (Jerusalem), the city covers an area of less than ۵۵ square kilometers, which expanded to around ۶۴ square kilometers during the recent war due to the settlement of refugees in its vicinity.

In 1982, when the Israeli regime handed over the Sinai Desert to Egypt based on the Camp David Accord, the city of Rafah was divided into two parts. 

Its southern part became part of Egyptian territory, while its northern part became part of the Gaza Strip. In the early years of the new century, with the Israeli military withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, the northern part was handed over to the self-governing Palestinian Authority.

In the circumstances of 140 days since the Israeli invasion of Gaza, it can be reasonably asserted that the only point that has remained immune so far from the full-scale ground assault of the Zionist regime is Rafah, a city that once had a population of around 200,000. However, Israel’s invasion and the transformation of the Gaza Strip into a devastated war zone forced the majority of Gaza’s population to seek refuge in this area. 

Today, Rafah’s population is estimated to be around one and a half million, while the entire area of Rafah province is approximately 64 square kilometers. 

In other words, nearly 23,500 people live in each square kilometer! It is worth noting that almost half of this population of one and a half million are children.

The population density, alongside the harsh obstacles on the Egyptian border and the Zionist regime’s barriers to sending humanitarian aid, has led to minimal living conditions in Rafah. 

Even the ongoing Israeli war on Gaza without a ground attack may pose grave challenges for the people in these areas in the coming months.  

According to a report by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees (UNRWA), nearly half a million people in Rafah are grappling with various illnesses, and providing treatment or care for them has become almost impossible. 

In such a situation, the Netanyahu cabinet strangely insists on attacking Rafah. The Israeli premier has publicly declared six times that the only area still under the control of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad is Rafah, and a ground operation must be pursued in this region to break Hamas’s power. Benny Gantz, considered a centrist figure, has also stated that if captives are not released by the month of Ramadan, a ground operation will be initiated in Rafah.

Even former Israeli military figures critical of Netanyahu, such as Amos Yadlin, have implicitly expressed their support for the invasion of Rafah. It can be reasonably said that the current atmosphere in the Netanyahu cabinet is almost uniformly supportive of a military assault on Rafah. 

Consequently, it must be noted that unless external parties intervene, Tel Aviv is likely to launch the Rafah operation soon.

The serious consequences of attacking Rafah

In such a situation, an attack on Rafah could become a major disaster for two reasons:

1- Rafah is the only remaining part of the Gaza Strip that has remained immune from the Zionist regime’s ground assault. In their ground operation, the Israelis have literally “plowed” the region, implementing the “scorched earth” strategy, eliminating the possibility of life and survival. In such a situation, Rafah is the last place where the people of Gaza can continue their lives, despite all the challenges.

2- Currently, close to one and a half million people live in Rafah. In other words, the population density reaches around 23,500 people per square kilometer. 

Given these two points, a military offensive would lead to two major catastrophes; firstly, a large-scale humanitarian massacre would occur, and thousands, if not tens of thousands, would perish within a short span of a few weeks. Secondly, a substantial portion of the population, in the hundreds of thousands, would be displaced.

An invasion of Rafah could lead to a major tragedy with “the displacement and migration of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians” outside of Gaza. It would be a catastrophe that West Asia has not seen for five decades and no political, security, or military authorities have any experience in dealing with such situations. 

It is noteworthy that from the six-day war until 2023, the number of Palestinian martyrs – even at its highest estimates – was less than 50,000. 

However, just in the ongoing Israeli war on Gaza, around 30,000 individuals have become martyrs, and with the potential invasion of Rafah, this figure will likely surpass even that harrowing death toll. 

The reality is that the Middle East has not experienced forced migrations or displacement on this scale within such a short time frame since1967. 

Hence, it must be emphasized that neither politicians nor security and military experts have an accurate estimation of the consequences of this catastrophe. 

It is unclear how security equations will change and what the long-term security implications will be for the region if a full-scale Israeli military assault goes ahead. 

Why does Netanyahu insist on attacking Rafah?

Against the backdrop of the ongoing situation, why does Netanyahu insist on carrying out the ground operation in Rafah? The truth is that after “Operation Al-Aqsa Flood” Netanyahu has been pursuing three main goals. 

1- Eliminating Hamas (at first Netanyahu vowed to destroy Hamas and now he wants to dismantle its structure)
2- Releasing captives 

3- Changing the governing system in Gaza and establishing a system that can guarantee Israel’s security. 

Netanyahu argues that he has continued the war for nearly five months to fulfill his first and third goals. So, if he stops the war, he has practically abandoned his project. In other words, fulfilling the first and third goals depends on the complete seizure of Rafah. 

With regard to the second goal, Netanyahu told Biden in a phone call that two Israeli captives were released following a raid in Rafah. 

Various sources in the Netanyahu cabinet claim that a significant number of captives are held in Rafah and they cannot be released unless a ground operation is conducted there. 

The right-wing prime minister insists on launching a ground incursion into Rafah and ignores international pressure.  

Western countries’ efforts to prevent Rafah operation 

Western and regional countries have ramped up efforts to deter the ground military operation in Rafah. 

On behalf of the United States, Brett McGurk is engaged in serious talks to dissuade Israel from the ground military operation in Gaza in exchange for a political agreement. 

In line with that, he traveled to Tel Aviv and Cairo and he is now leading Paris negotiations.

This comes two weeks after Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns visited the region where he discussed ways to reach a political deal and ceasefire in Gaza. 

CNN also reported high-ranking American officials believe that the anticipated operation in Rafah makes any agreements on ending the Gaza war and reaching a ceasefire impossible.  They also believe Netanyahu is not interested in reaching a political deal. 

The European Union has a more transparent approach in this regard. 

26 out of ۲۷ EU states have called for an immediate ceasefire and urged Israel to avoid its imminent ground incursion into Rafah. 

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said foreign ministers from 26 member states had agreed on a statement calling for "an immediate humanitarian pause that would lead to a sustainable ceasefire".  He said Hungary was the only European country that did not give its consent. 

In a statement, Belgium, which took over the six-month presidency of the Council of the European Union from Spain on January ۱, called on Israel not to attack Rafah. The Israeli foreign minister also said 26 EU countries have made a similar demand.  

Belgium's deputy prime minister also called on his government to adopt sanctions against Israel and investigate the bombings of hospitals and refugee camps in Gaza.

“It is time for sanctions against Israel. The rain of bombs is inhumane," Deputy Prime Minister Petra De Sutter told Nieuwsblad newspaper in November. “It is clear that Israel does not care about the international demands for a ceasefire,” she said.

Senior Spanish and Irish officials have also called for reviewing ties with Tel Aviv. 

President of Ireland Michael D. Higgins said in November, "Collective punishment is not something we can accept and claim to be advocates of international law."

He added, "It is simply unacceptable that hospitals and those being cared for within them are threatened by the basic lack of resources, damaged or indeed threatened with destruction, or those within them forced to be evacuated." 

Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has also said that Israel has been systematically occupying the Palestinian territories and called for the recognition of the State of Palestine.

In a post on X, Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares has also said, “Extending operations to Rafah would be a grave threat to the lives of more than one million Palestinian refugees ... and would increase the humanitarian catastrophe”.

The French president has also said Israel must stop bombing Gaza and killing civilians and there is "no justification" for the bombing.

When asked whether Israel had breached international law, Emmanuel Macron replied: "I'm not a judge. I'm a head of state" who sought to be "a partner and a friend" to Israel.
However, in a phone call, Macron strongly criticized Netanyahu for his regime’s planned ground incursion into Rafah.

He said the Israeli military action “would constitute violations of the international humanitarian law and would pose an additional risk of regional escalation.” 

He made similar remarks in a phone call with the King of Jordan. 

"An Israeli offensive in Rafah could only bring about an unprecedented humanitarian disaster and would be a turning point in this conflict," Macron said.

Glimmers of hope

Such efforts have pushed Netanyahu to send a high-ranking delegation to Paris for talks. This is while, a week earlier, Israel dispatched a delegation with limited authority to the Cairo meeting which only discussed humanitarian issues. In Cairo, the Israeli team announced that it would neither hold talks on a ceasefire deal nor plans to do away with the anticipated incursion into Rafah. 

Reports suggest that high-ranking officials including Mossad director David Barnea, Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, Nitzan Alon, the Israel military’s point man for captive negotiations, and Netanya’s top advisor are present in the Paris meeting. 

However, the delegation that was dispatched to Paris, called Qatar’s ceasefire proposal dilutional and demanded considerable privileges in a way that the world construe it as a sign of Hamas’ surrender.

It seems that Israel makes these excessive demands as it looks for excuses to launch a ground offensive in Rafah.