TEHRAN - A review of the earthquake risk and the possibility of a tsunami caused by it should be carried out on the coasts of the mainland and the islands of the Persian Gulf.

The Persian Gulf coast is a region that faces various natural hazards, one of the most important of which is tsunamis and earthquakes.

In the Persian Gulf, the probability of a tsunami is less compared to the Oman Sea. Large landslides can cause tsunamis if they occur on the sea floor.

The severe earthquakes of 978 and 1008 AD that happened in the Siraf region, near the current Taheri port and Asaluyeh, were accompanied by a tsunami. Historically, some evidences indicate the occurrence of tsunamis in the Persian Gulf region.

The Tsunami phenomenon (Soo-nah-me) is long-wavelength waves that are generally caused by submarine earthquakes (subduction zones).

Tsunami waves are produced by a sudden impact in the deep ocean, such as an earthquake, sliding parts of the earth's crust, volcanoes in the depths of the seas, atomic explosions, etc., but the most important cause of this phenomenon is the movement of plates and the creation of a step-like vertical displacement in It is the bottom of the sea.

The coasts of the Persian Gulf are prone to tsunamis due to being located along active faults such as the Zagros pit fault and the curvature of the Zagros mountain front.

Qeshm Island is 110 km long, 10 to 35 km wide, and stretches east-northeast, northwest of the Strait of Hormuz, on the southern edge of the Zagros continental collision zone, and is the largest island in the Persian Gulf.

The mechanism of earthquakes whose faults have a northeast-southwest trend is usually left-lateral strike-slip compression. In the vicinity of salt domes, such as the Qeshm salt dome and Gachin salt dome, strong earthquakes (with a magnitude of about 6) are quickly reduced by shaking a wide area.

However, the earthquake of September 10, 2008, in Qeshm with a magnitude of 6.0 resulted in the death of seven compatriots and the injury of around 46 people.

Two strong earthquakes in the evening of November 14 2021 in the north of Bandar-Abbas (Fin) also occurred within a minute of each other, but they left little damage and casualties, because the epicenter of the two events was uninhabited or sparsely populated, therefore only one person was killed and a few injured.

Whereas, if the epicenter of the earthquakes was in the densely populated urban areas, it would leave a lot of damage and casualties like the 2003 Bam Iran, Mw6.5 earthquake.

Strait of Hormuz, Qeshm and Bandar Abbas region experienced the Sarkhoon earthquake on March 16, 1975, the Khorgo earthquake on March 21, 1977, a magnitude 6 earthquake on November 27, 2005, and a magnitude 6 earthquake on September 10, 2008, in Qeshm Island.

Development of the local seismographic network called the early warning system is needed for coastal areas that can be equipped for tsunami warning, which unfortunately has not happened yet.

Although there is a seismograph and accelerometer station in Hormozgan, the early warning system has not been installed yet. On the other hand, there is no tsunami system in any region of Iran.

Basic infrastructures such as hospitals, power plants, refineries, and ports must be rebuilt, retrofitted, and modernized, and their resilience against severe earthquakes must be increased.

Previous experiences and documents show that there is a possibility of stronger and more intense earthquakes in the region because the region is prone to earthquakes, but to predict closer to reality and with stronger possibilities, the seismological infrastructure should be strengthened and the scientific and research infrastructure should be developed in the region.

Earthquake rapid response systems with reliable and near-real estimates of ground motion and post-earthquake losses help officials to take appropriate measures in the event response phase if needed.

Kish Island is also in the vicinity of the bending fault of Zagros mountain front, which is a compressional fault with a slope towards the north and in this area with an east-west trend, according to history, the earthquake of 1703 AD, Qays (Kish) at the end of the Safavid period with an estimated magnitude 6.8 has destroyed Kish and Hengam islands.

After the earthquakes of 978 AD and 1008 AD of Siraf (Taheri Port - Asaluyeh), the destruction of Siraf and its decline in prosperity caused many merchants to migrate to Kish, and thus Kish has prospered.

In addition, there are speculations about the destruction of the historical port of Harira in the historical earthquakes of Kish (especially the earthquake of 1703 AD).

The coast of the Persian Gulf is home to a large and growing population, with many cities and towns located in low-lying areas, making them more vulnerable to tsunamis.

To reduce tsunami risks, several countries in the region have implemented earthquake and tsunami early warning systems, evacuation plans, and public awareness campaigns. The purpose of these measures is to reduce human and financial losses in the event of a tsunami.

Floods due to rainfall and storms caused by tropical storms affected the Persian Gulf coastal region in February 2024. Typhoon Gonu reached Kalba city in 2007 and caused serious damage.

The height of the wave attributed to this storm reached 1.8 meters. Water covered many areas of the city. In 2021, a breakwater project was inaugurated to protect Kalba Beach from monsoons.

It is recommended that any construction on the east coast of the UAE, including the cities of Fujairah, Diba, Sharm, and Dadaneh, should include flood and tsunami reduction planning along with public awareness and education to deal with disasters.

The coast of the United Arab Emirates is 644 km in the Persian Gulf and 90 km in the Gulf of Oman. Big cities like Abu Dhabi and Dubai are located along this coast.

Therefore, any rise in sea level will have a significant impact on the United Arab Emirates; Because about 85% of the population, more than 90% of the infrastructure, sensitive environmental subsystems, and the main population and social gatherings are located in the coastal area.

The main driving force behind sea level rise is global warming (mainly attributed to carbon emissions). The sea level rise due to climate change shows a range of sea level rise between 0.37 and 0.59 meters by the year 2100. Experts predict with a probability of five percent that the rise of the sea level will exceed two meters by the year 2100. With this scenario, rising sea levels could cause the UAE to lose six percent of its current coastline.

As a result, the coastline can move about 25-30 kilometers to the south and has the potential to inundate an area of 1,155 square kilometers to almost 5,000 square kilometers.

For geomorphological reasons, the desert is considered a hazard; Because, unlike other hazards, it can affect residential areas due to the expanding land area.

The Arabian Peninsula is listed as one of the five main dust-producing regions in the world. A dust storm can raise more than 200 tons of dust and eventually deposit it.

As a large part of the UAE is covered by desert, movement of sand is very likely. Between 1994 and 2003, 173 dust events and dust storms were reported. Sand accumulates on the roads and causes accidents and fatalities.

The UAE spends millions of dollars annually on road cleaning to minimize accidents and prevent road burying.

Coastal flooding is also possible due to tsunamis caused by earthquakes. Makran earthquakes (magnitude 8.1) in 1945 and Banda Aceh in western Indonesia with magnitude 8.1 on December 26, 2004, were both accompanied by tsunamis, on the northeast coast of UAE.