By Shahrokh Saei

Are post-war Gaza scenarios realistic?

January 31, 2024 - 21:33

TEHRAN - Since the establishment of Israel in 1948, Western countries have thrown their full weight behind the regime. 

They have turned a blind eye to the plight of the Palestinians who have been subjected to atrocious crimes and mass ethnic cleansing campaigns carried out by the occupying regime. 
Nonetheless, the October 7 military operation by the resistance movement Hamas which dealt a heavy blow to Israel’s security and intelligence system, marked a turning point in the region.  
The Hamas attack, which further shattered the image of Israel’s invincibility, caught European officials and diplomats off-guard. Soon after Israel waged a deadly war on Gaza following the Hamas strike, the repercussions of the regime’s onslaught pushed Europeans to place new plans on the agenda over the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

EU proposal 

One of these plans was drafted by the European Union in January. 

News sources said the EU proposal includes a series of steps that could eventually bring peace to the Gaza Strip, establish an independent Palestinian state, normalize relations between Israel and the Arab world, and guarantee long-term security in West Asia.

The bloc has conducted preliminary consultations with Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the League of Arab States, and other key partners in this regard. 

The EU plan largely focuses on Gaza’s post-war era. 

It indicates that the Gaza Strip and the West Bank would be represented by the Palestinian Authority (PA) and Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), rather than Hamas.

According to the draft, a peace conference should be held via the participation of Arab countries, the U.S., the EU and the UN. The conference would have one year to design the framework for a peace plan, taking into account the feedback from all involved parties, UN resolutions, European Council conclusions and previous mediation efforts.

One of the main goals of the EU measure was aimed at bringing an end to Israel’s war on Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, however, has poured cold water on such ideas. 

Paris conference

France hosted a conference on Sunday in an effort to help establish a ceasefire in Gaza. 

CIA chief William Burns, top Egyptian and Qatari officials as well as the heads of the Israeli Mossad intelligence agency and Shin Bet attended the Paris meeting. 

U.S. media outlets revealed that an agreement was discussed under which Israel suspends its war in Gaza for about two months in return for the release of more than 100 captives held in Gaza.     The yet-to-be-sealed deal would also allow the release of large numbers of Palestinian prisoners who are in Israeli jails and more humanitarian aid into Gaza.

The proposed deal, however, would not end the war. This is because Hamas demands that Israel completely stop fighting, and pull its forces out of Gaza. But Netanyahu insists that the regime’s army will continue the Gaza onslaught till the elimination of Hamas.  

Some two weeks ago, Netanyahu said the war on Gaza will continue till 2025, threatening that the fighting won’t stop till Hamas is completely destroyed. 

But his previous comments indicate that the eradication of Hamas is just an excuse to press ahead with the war. 

The embattled premier reiterated last month that Israel must retain security control over Gaza after Hamas is “destroyed”, a move that contradicts the demand for Palestinian sovereignty. 

Weeks after Israel launched its onslaught on Gaza, it also floated the idea of pushing Palestinians from Gaza to Egypt — and not allow them to return after the war. 

Saudi meeting 

Last month, U.S. media also revealed that senior national security officials from Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt and the Palestinian Authority secretly met in the Saudi capital to coordinate plans for Gaza’s post-war era and discuss ways to involve a revitalized Palestinian Authority in governing the enclave.

According to Axios, Saudi Arabia's national security adviser Musaed bin Mohammed al-Aiban hosted the meeting in Riyad. The other participants were the director of Palestinian General Intelligence Service Majed Faraj and his Egyptian and Jordanian counterparts. 

They discussed how a new prime minister will receive some of the authority that has been centralized under President Mahmoud Abbas in recent years, if a new Palestinian government is formed, according to the news outlet. 

The three Arab countries stressed that reforms are needed for the Palestinian Authority to return to governing Gaza after a post-war transition period.

Regardless of the positions of participants in the Paris and Riyadh meetings and the EU’s stance, it seems that Netanyahu and his far-right cabinet are a major stumbling block in the face of efforts to end the Gaza war. 

Netanyahu believes that a permanent state of war offers him a lifeline because he is under fire for the regime’s failure to prevent the October 7 attack by Hamas. This is in addition to other Netanyahu’s headaches including corruption charges and previous mass protests over his judicial overhaul plan.  

Arab and Western countries are pressing ahead with plans for Gaza’s post-war era. However, several questions in this regard remain unanswered. 

First, Israel was humiliated over its intelligence and security failure on October 7 and it is now more vulnerable than ever. The regime has committed massacres in Gaza to whitewash its vulnerability. So, how can it contribute to regional security? 

Second, the expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank is another sore point. Israeli forces routinely kill Palestinians who protest against home demolitions and the regime’s land grand policy. While tensions remain high in the West Bank, is it possible to ensure security? 

Third, occupation is the root cause of instability and insecurity in West Asia. What should be done with regard to Israel’s occupation of Syria’s Golan Heights and parts of Lebanon?

Fourth, the Palestinian Authority remains unpopular in the West Bank over its inaction towards Israel’s atrocities. How can it represent the entire Palestine?
These are among the questions that should be taken into consideration in line with efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian issue and bring peace to the region. 


 

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