TEHRAN- Iran is expected to experience warmer than normal autumn and winter this year, the National Center for Drought and Crisis Management has forecasted.

"The amount of precipitation will increase from next week on, and the average temperature during autumn is expected to rise above normal,” Ahad Vazifeh, the head of the Center has said.

In the first month of autumn (September 23-October 22) this year, an average rainfall of 6.5 mm was recorded in the country, while the average normal rainfall in this period is 5.1 mm.

In the same period, the average temperature was 21.9 degrees Celsius, while the average temperature in the long term is recorded to be 21.2 degrees Celsius.

He went on to say that most of the meteorological patterns demonstrate that the air temperature will be warmer than normal in these two seasons, but due to the dominance of El Niño in the Pacific Ocean, the temperature of the northern hemisphere tends to be lower than normal in winter.

Increasing precipitation

In September, Vazifeh said according to the latest data, the rapid growth of El Niño anomaly is expected to have a strong impact on increasing precipitation.

“Statistical research has shown that during the El Niño phase, the accumulated precipitation in autumn in Iran is usually normal or above normal,” he added, Mehr reported.

“Conversely, rainfall patterns during La Niña tend to be less than normal in most of the country's provinces.”

He pointed out that over the last three years up to the end of the past Iranian calendar year (March 20), moderate La Niña conditions prevailed in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and the rainfall amount in autumn was significantly less than normal.

“This year, the conditions of El Niño Southern Oscillation, known as ENSO, are special, and unlike the past, this index did not enter the neutral phase. The cycle is moving from a three-year la Niña straight into an El Niño.”

The National Center for Drought and Crisis Management has forecasted during the autumn and winter, the country will likely face a moderate El Niño event.

In case of being accompanied by other effective factors, it will cause normal precipitation in different regions and heavier than normal rainfall, especially in the western half of the country.

It should be noted that "El Niño" is one of the world's famous weather cycles that causes great anomalies in the climate of the entire planet every 2 to 7 years.

MT/MG