TEHRAN - As hawkish Republicans in the United States exert all their efforts to persuade the Biden administration to attack Iran, it appears unlikely that such an attack will occur, at least in the foreseeable future.

Various U.S. officials have been attempting to dismiss Iran's involvement in Hamas's October 7th attack on Israel.
Contrary to popular belief, the Biden administration is not as naive and foolish as many portray it to be. The United States is currently preoccupied with the Ukraine conflict and has made significant miscalculations in provoking Russia's attack on Ukraine.

Washington credulously believed that heavy economic sanctions would bring Moscow to its knees. Additionally, Ukrainian soldiers have proven to be highly ineffective in utilizing the weapons provided by the West. With upcoming elections across Europe and the United States, global support for Ukraine is expected to diminish. Given that China is viewed as the biggest threat by the United States, Washington would much rather gear its remaining military and intelligence might towards competing with Beijing, rather than launch another endless and futile war in West Asia. 

Even for Netanyahu, who has consistently claimed that reining in Iran's influence is his top priority, a full-scale war with Iran is not desirable at the moment. The Hamas attack on the occupied territories followed 38 weeks of continuous protests against Netanyahu's government. The current Israeli cabinet, arguably the weakest in the history of the Zionist regime and filled with right-winged extremists, seems to be pointing the finger of blame at Iran mostly to save face and avoid further humiliation. 

For Netanyahu, a wider and significantly larger conflict with Tehran could potentially bring the end of his political career, though it is already expected that he won’t be able to escape the same fate that followed Golda Meir after the Yom Kippur War. Meir was not remotely as detested as Netanyahu by the Israeli public. He was even considered to be one of the establishers of the Zionist regime. 
Aside from the potential future implications a war with Iran may have for Israel, it is evident that the Israeli army is facing significant challenges in effectively facing Hamas. The current state of the Israeli military appears disorganized, lacking proper coordination, and plagued by a sense of demotivation. Israeli soldiers find themselves starring down the barrel of a disaster that they were told would never occur.

One of Israel's fundamental priorities has always been to prevent war from spilling over into the occupied territories. Throughout history, Israel's conflicts have primarily involved offensives into the neighboring Arab countries, and the occupied territories have remained largely impervious to infiltration by resistance groups or other Arab fighters. However, with the dismantling of the barrier between Gaza and the occupied territories, Israel has suffered its most substantial intelligence defeat in the past seven decades. Some reports suggest Hamas forces practiced the October 7 offensive at least four times, in 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023, inside the besieged Gaza Strip. Yet the Israeli regime’ intelligence forces, which have been touted as the world’s most robust spy apparatus, failed to put the pieces together and pick up on Hamas’s plan. Not only Mossad and Shabak, but even CIA and MI6 who have a large presence in West Asia and are known as the most powerful intelligence services of the planet could not see the attack is coming. 

This turn of events has shattered the notion of a "safe land for Jews" that Israel had strived to establish. Imagine being an Israeli soldier who now has to face the “biggest threat”: Iran. It seems impossible for forces struggling to stand up to Hamas to now muster up the courage to go against Iranian forces, who have won every battle they’ve entered in the past 4 decades. 

Even if Israeli politicians decide to make another blunder and incentivize a war against Iran, the U.S. would much rather focus on resolving the Ukraine war and countering China’s influence, than repeat the woefully vain sagas of Iraq and Afghanistan. In fact, much to Israel’s chagrin, the U.S. has already begun a gradual pullout of its troops from West Asia and has been trying to abandon the role of the regime’s god father by promoting the two state-solution. 
Overall, it seems that the proponents of attacking Iran are expressing their unfulfilled wishes while posing as analysts and wise politicians.