Mirage of regime change: Will the JCPOA be sacrificed?
TEHRAN – The recent wave of unrest in Iran has caused a clear streak of hesitation in the Biden administration regarding Iran, dampening hopes of an end to Washington's contradictions in regard to diplomacy with Tehran.
With calm restored to Iran in the wake of the unrest, the Biden administration has resorted to dubious ways to obscure its Iran policy. On one hand, Biden officials say they are no longer focused on resuscitating the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). On the other, the Biden administration has been reaching out to Iranian officials regarding the nuclear talks, according to Iran’s top diplomat.
Over the last few weeks, the Biden administration has been engaged in a diplomatic messaging campaign intended to show support for what they call “democrats on the ground.” Several Biden officials openly voiced support for unrest in Iran in what appeared to be a move to distance the Biden administration from his former boss. Biden himself expressed support for Iran unrest, and his senior officials met with so-called Iranian activists.
Meanwhile, the Biden administration quickly moved to undermine Iran’s internet sovereignty by paving the way for Elon Musk’s SpaceX to activate its Starlink satellite internet service in Iran. Having already stalemated the JCPOA talks with arcane demands, the Biden administration threw its weight behind the project of illegally getting Starlink terminals to Iran as a way to demonstrate the White House's seriousness in favoring regime change policy over nuclear diplomacy.
“Why haven’t we figured this out sooner?” a U.S. official said of the efforts to smuggle Starlink terminals into Iran in remarks to CNN. “We’re putting so much effort into the JCPOA [nuclear deal]. It’s an ongoing national security interest to get rid of this regime. Here’s how: empower those democrats on the ground in Iran and the number one way to do it is to find ways to support tech like that in the country, and we haven’t, we’ve failed.”
A senior Biden official told CNN that right now, the JCPOA is “not on the agenda.” National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications John Kirby echoed that on Thursday, telling reporters that “we are way far apart with the Iranians in terms of a return to the deal.”
But behind the scene, the Biden administration has been actively trying to reach a deal with Iran, according to Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian.
Commenting on the state of nuclear negotiations, Amir Abdollahian said, “The words and actions of the Americans are contradictory. Three days ago, we received a message from the Americans.”
“Our assessment of the message of the American side is that making a deal is not only their priority but also they are in a rush to do so,” he said on Saturday.
Judging from Amir Abdollahian’s remarks, the Biden administration’s messaging campaign seems to be intended to create a sense of policy reorientation on Iran to propitiate Iran hawks in Washington. But that could inadvertently victimize the JCPOA, particularly if the White House fails to appreciate the need for flexibility in the JCPOA talks.
Leave a Comment