The 2011 turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa region has caused the collapse of the so-called moderate camp (Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt), resulting in the emergence of new coalitions and strategic alliances. 

 

Egypt, experts agree, will be tied down for a considerable period of time, getting its house in order and sorting out civil-military relations in this new era. These uprisings have undermined the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s public posture and prestige.  Moreover, Shia revivalism has intensified since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003 and has returned to Bahrain’s political scene with a vengeance. This means that there will be a perceptible shift of influence in the Middle East from the traditional Arab heartland to two countries that were once on the sidelines of regional politics: Turkey and Qatar.    

 

What brings Turkey and Qatar together is two-fold.  First, their reactions to any military strikes against Iran: both high ranking Turkish and Qatari officials have said that, “there will be no act of aggression from their countries against Iran.”  Secondly, both have vested interests in maintaining normal and friendly relations with Iran.  That said, the crisis in Syria has created a tension between these two countries and Iran.  Syria has become a conundrum without easy solutions.  

 

Turkey, by providing a buffer zone for the Syrian opposition groups, has positioned itself diametrically opposite of Iran. Likewise, Qatar's support for Hamas-Fatah reconciliation efforts has made Qatar a key player in the region, while interposing it in what has until recently been a privileged Tehran-Damascus-Hamas connection.  Aware of its deficiency in hard power, Qatar has been energetic in enhancing its soft power by positioning itself in high-leverage reconciliation efforts.  This frees Qatar from Saudi Arabia’s overshadowing influence in the region.  With the same goal in mind, Qatar maintains cooperative relations with Iran—Saudi’s regional rival.  Iran and Qatar also share one of the world’s largest natural gas fields.

 

Turkey’s broader foreign policy objectives overlap with Qatar’s ambitious mediation efforts.   The Turkish objective of creating a broad region of free trade and unbridled movement of goods, people, and ideas is well-served by Qatar’s highly valued mediation efforts.  Because of this, as well as political and economic imperatives, Turkey continues to seek neighborly relations with Iran, which underlines their cultural affinity and Islamic identity.  Iran has sought prestige in the Arab world by embracing the Palestinian cause.  To fulfill this mission, they have cooperated with Syria to arm and support both Hezbollah and Hamas. 

 

Iran is in a predicament because supporting their allies in Damascus may negatively impact their relations with the Arab world.  Turkey is in a bind in that if it militarily intervenes in Syria, it might be political suicide for the AKP government.  To not intervene, on the other hand, is an admission of powerlessness in its own backyard.  The contradiction in which Qatar finds itself is that as much as they want to take the side of the Sunni majority in Syria, they cannot afford to antagonize Iran.  Since these three regionally ambitious states are each in a similar predicament, the possibility of three-way mediation to resolve the Syrian crisis should not be ruled out.  

 

Mahmood Monshipouri is Associate Professor of International Relations at San Francisco State University.  He is the author of Terrorism, Security, and Human Rights: Harnessing the Rule of Law (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2012) and is currently working on a book about the Arab Spring.