d]

@h= The United States’ flawed and dangerous analysis of Syria
@b= Alexey Makinin
political analyst
@b= The United States continually states its commitment to destroy Daesh; however, in reality it appears that defeating Daesh is not a high priority among its regional policies. Unfortunately, it appears that Washington’s top priority in Syria is to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad and his government at any cost.
The United States refuses to cooperate with the Syrian government, and continues to believe that a political solution will end the crisis in Syria. However, any political solution Washington is willing to accept involves replacing President Assad and his government. The American analysis of the situation in Syria is deeply flawed, as they ignore the realities and results of the regime changes that occurred in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya as a result of the Arab Spring uprisings. None of the countries that transitioned into new governments were able to provide quick stability, maintain security, or create effective political systems. Moreover, these countries saw a rapid expansion in security threats, the spread of extremist ideology, and terrorism. Given these facts, it should be abundantly clear that a political transition in Syria will not be an effective strategy to defeat Daesh or end the Syrian civil war.
The most compelling evidence is the fact that Syria does not have a unified opposition force. In fact, the ideologies among the Syrian opposition are often conflicting, which has led to numerous accounts of violent internal fighting. Replacing President Assad will not unify the opposition, but rather will cause further divide among the rival groups which would likely only further escalate violence and instability. It is critical to remember that opposition forces to the Syrian government are heavily armed and have already demonstrated a willingness to engage in combat to achieve their political aspirations. Al-Nursa Front, an al-Qaeda affiliate, has proven itself to be a dedicated and strong opposition force; however, it is highly doubtful that the U.S.-led coalition would allow al-Nursa Front to be part of a new Syrian government. This will be a significant problem to the successful formation of a new government, because al-Nursa Front and other extremist groups do not wish to merely see President Assad removed from power, but rather they want to enforce their own extremist ideology as the center of a new political system in Syria. Therefore, al-Nursa Front and other extremist groups will likely continue to fight until they achieve their goals or are decisively defeated. Additionally, it is already obvious that the allegedly moderate opposition group supported by the United States and its allies lacks authority and has already proven itself to be incapable of controlling the radical opposition forces. Thus, it is clear that a peaceful political transition in Syria is impossible.
However, political chaos and internal fighting are not the only problems associated with overthrowing the Syrian government. The removal of the Syrian government would also have a disastrous impact on the Syrian military. The Syrian military has proven itself to be extremely loyal to President Assad; therefore, it is not unlikely that a new government would require military reform, including partially or fully replacing the military leadership and the possible dissolution of some military units. Such actions were taken in Iraq against the Republican Guard after the U.S. invasion of Iraq led to the overthrow of Saddam Hussein. Additionally, the removal of President Assad and his government would not only ruin morale, but more importantly crush the vital Syrian military operations against Daesh. A demoralized military will be ineffective in combat and can easily be defeated by Daesh, which would result in the downfall of Syria.
In conclusion, the United States strategy to end the Syrian civil war and defeat Daesh is not only flawed, but extremely dangerous. If the U.S.-led coalition successfully removes Assad and his government, it will bring forth devastating effects on not only Syria, but the entire region. The removal of Assad is the quickest way to ensure Daesh a decisive victory and takeover of Syria. Therefore, this strategy can only strengthen Daesh and lead to further regional instability and conflict, as well as a sharp increase to global security risks.