For the first time since 2000, Turkey’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) failed to secure the majority in parliamentary polls. Following the elections, the Republican People’s Party, the Peoples’ Democratic Party and the Nationalist Movement Party secured more seats in the parliament.

The biggest political development in Turkey could be the fact that the Peoples’ Democratic Party, gaining 13 percent of the votes and 80 seats in the parliament, secured equal seats as the Nationalist Movement Party.

The AKP also lost the absolute majority in the parliament after the elections. Had the AKP gained two-third of the votes, Erdogan could have changed the constitution to cement his authority and increase presidential power. The AKP secured only 258 seats, followed by the Republican People’s Party which achieved 131 seats.

On July 9, Erdogan tasked Davutoglu to form a coalition government within a legally allowed 45-day time. All Davutoglu had to do was to persuade the parties to join forming a coalition government. Kemal Kilicdaroglu discussed the five major issues of his party with Davutoglu and asked for significant political, economic, and educational reforms. Kilicdaroglu also raised the issue of the constitution and the Kurds with Davutoglu. If a coalition government had to be formed, Kilicdaroglu said, at least the three ministries of the interior, national education, and foreign affairs must have been assigned to the People’s Republican Party.

He also put much significance on foreign policy, saying in case a coalition government is to be set up, the country’s foreign policy should undergo great reforms. Kilicdaroglu also asked for the independence of the judiciary.

Failing to form a coalition government with Kilicdaroglu, Davutoglu started negotiations with Devlet Bahceli, the chairman of the Nationalist Movement Party. The talks however bore no results.

Following these developments, Erdogan met with Parliament Speaker Ismet Yilmaz and assigned Davutoglu to form a caretaker government until the November elections.

After five days, a caretaker government was made up of representatives of the parties in the parliament. The AKP, which was tasked with appointing a caretaker government, claimed the prime minister should pick the representatives. The Peoples’ Democratic Party insisted that the party’s head should do so. Davutoglu however said that the constitution authorizes him to appoint members of the caretaker government as the prime minister.

The Nationalist Movement and the Republican People’s Party refrained from advocating representatives for the caretaker government. The Peoples’ Democratic Party however insisted that following Davutoglu’s failure to form a caretaker government, Erdogan should have assigned Kilicdaroglu to form a government. Erdogan challenged this, saying “those who do not know the way to the Presidential Palace are not allowed to form a caretaker government.”

Based on the law, in the new government the posts of the ministers of the interior, justice, and transportation should be filled by independent parties.

The list of the distribution of the ministers should have been endorsed by Prime Minister Davutoglu, based on which, besides the three independent ministers, the AKP would have eleven, the Republican People’s Party five, and Nationalist Movement and the People’s Democratic Party each had three ministers in the caretaker government.

The caretaker government would however face grave difficulties till November. Many believe that the AKP seeks absolute power and wants to have the full backing of the Army.

Engulfed in clashes with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and faced with ISIL threats and a falling Turkish lira, the caretaker government would face tough challenges ahead.

Based on surveys, the AKP has lost its past hegemony and would never secure the absolute majority it enjoyed from 2002-2015. The leftists and Kurds would still support the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), and in the new elections, the party is expected to secure another 10 percent of the votes unless Ankara decides to dissolve the party, an illogical move which would drag the country back to the crisis of the 1990s.

MD/PA