The extensive cabinet reshuffle in Saudi Arabia recently ordered by King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud indicates that the power struggle in the court is intensifying, largely due to the poor health of the crown prince, Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud.

Although information rarely leaks out of the highly secretive royal court, it seems that the dispute over who should replace Sultan bin Abdul Aziz as first in line to the throne will cause serious internal and external political problems for Saudi Arabia.
A glance at the history of the House of Saud’s rise to power and the covert clashes between the 36 children of King Abdullah over the succession shows that the country has always had tribal and semi-modern factions. Some of King Abdullah’s children, like Malek Abdullah, despite their inclination toward the United States and the West in general, are trying to maintain the traditional customs and the current practice of succession to the throne by the oldest prince.
In contrast to such traditional lines of thought, Malek Abdullah’s brother Talal bin Abdul Aziz believes that the most qualified member of the Al Saud family should be the crown prince.
Because of his unorthodox views, Talal bin Abdul Aziz was ostracized from the royal court and has become the leader of an opposition group based outside Saudi Arabia.
The dispute between the tribal and semi-modern groups has been temporarily assuaged as a result of Malek Abdullah’s proposal to establish a council to choose a crown prince.
However, the power struggle in the House of Saud has still not been resolved as two powerful factions in the royal court are facing off against each other.
One faction, made up of the descendents of former Saudi King Faisal bin Abdul Aziz, who was assassinated in 1975, believes the position of crown prince is their birthright.
Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Saud Al-Faysal bin Abdul al-Aziz Al Saud leads this faction. They believe that their father sacrificed his life for the Arab cause so his children should succeed to the throne. However, after King Faisal died, his brother Khalid bin Abdul Aziz became king.
The other faction is comprised of the secretary general of the National Security Council, former ambassador to the U.S. Bandar bin Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud, and his brothers.
This faction maintains that after the death of their father, current Crown Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz, the position of crown prince should be assumed by his oldest son.
Due to Bandar bin Sultan’s extended stay in the United States and the strong relations he established with the U.S. State Department, Pentagon, and Congress, he enjoys the support of U.S. officials, who are worriedly following the power struggle.
Bandar bin Sultan believes that his cousin Saud Al-Faysal is no longer able to run the Foreign Ministry efficiently because he suffers from Parkinson’s disease and therefore should resign. However, Saud Al-Faysal and his brothers insist that the position of crown prince is the birthright of King Faisal’s sons.
Under such circumstances, the death of King Abdullah and his brother Crown Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz will surely exacerbate the power struggle in the House of Saud.
A number of analysts have said that after the first generation of the royal family passes away, the transition of power will not be smooth.
An analysis of recent media reports shows that the second generation of the House of Saud is making efforts to strengthen their power, and the death of the king and the crown prince will shine the spotlight on the power struggle, which the Westerners have called the war of vipers.
According to these analysts, after the king and crown prince die, Saudi Arabia will break up into several countries, and each will be ruled by a powerful member of the House of Saud.