Myanmar PM Soe Win heads for refuge of China
Even as Myanmar's fellow Southeast Asian neighbours show growing signs of unhappiness over the regime's political and human rights records, China has remained solidly behind the generals while looking to broaden trade links.
"We expect that this visit will further expand and deepen the traditional friendship between China and Myanmar," Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Kong Quan said last week when asked about Soe Win's trip, which begins on Tuesday.
Kong said the two nations would sign trade agreements during Soe Win's four-day trip, while he is scheduled to receive red carpet treatment during meetings with President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao.
However the United Nation's former envoy to Myanmar, Rizali Ismail, called on China to belatedly start pressuring the junta to reform.
"China has a critical role to play in the efforts to bring reforms and democracy in Myanmar," Rizali, a Malaysian diplomat who resigned in frustration in December after being denied access to the country for two years, told AFP. "The Chinese know if they exert the political will, they can get Myanmar back on the track towards reforms. China is extremely close with Myanmar."
However China has given no indication it will encourage the junta to reform, with Kong insisting his government will not deviate from its strict policy of not interfering in Myanmar's "internal affairs".
The director of the Honolulu-based Center for Strategic and International Studies' Pacific Forum think tank, Ralph Cossa, said China's stance had become more important for the junta as other regional governments abandoned them.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations for a long time followed a similar policy of "non-interference" with member Myanmar, but last year demanded it move towards democracy and release opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
"China has become not only an important economic contributor, but also its political protector," Cossa said.
Cossa said this support had become "critical" in multilateral forums, with China lobbying other nations privately and publicly to avoid pressuring Myanmar's generals.
"You see the Chinese at every one of these meetings speaking out for Myanmar. No one else is carrying the flag for them. Politically it helps to take some of the heat off Myanmar," he said.
The United States said last week it was considering introducing a resolution at the UN Security Council to step up international pressure on Myanmar over its human rights abuses.
China, a permanent member of the Security Council, would likely veto any such move, with Myanmar so confident of the fact that Soe Win would not even raise the matter this week, according to a former Thai ambassador to the UN.
"Burma doesn't have to lobby," Asda Jayanama told AFP, referring to Myanmar by its former name.
One of the reasons for China's steadfast loyalty is Myanmar's strategic importance on military, economic and geopolitical fronts, with the nation bordering India and giving Beijing access to the Indian Ocean.
China has been the junta's biggest military supplier, delivering more than one billion dollars worth of hardware during the 1990s, according to various academic reports.
Meanwhile, with Myanmar's economy suffering from the junta's mismanagement and Western sanctions, China's growing trade links are assuming an even greater importance in helping the junta remain in power, according to Thailand's Asda.
"China is the last refuge for Myanmar, not only in terms of political relations but also in terms of trade," he said.
Bilateral trade was worth more than 1.15 billion dollars in 2004, according to official Chinese figures, but the true figure is undoubtedly much higher taking into account the enormous informal border trade.
Environmental watchdog Global Witness last year accused China of being involved in the illegal trade of timber from Myanmar worth around 300 million dollars annually.