TEHRAN – As a leader who has frequently talked about how “concerned” he is about Iran’s battered nuclear program in recent weeks, Emanuel Macron of France inarguably blunted any efforts to prevent tensions from shooting up when he sat down with a Zionist journalist on Thursday and announced that Europe will re-instate UN sanctions against Iran, regardless of what the country has done or might do in the future.

Asked by Israel’s Channel 12 whether the so-called snapback was a done deal, Macron said: “Yes. I think so.”

The French President said Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had come up with a “reasonable” plan to stop the reimposition of UN sanctions, but the E3 (France, Germany, and Britain) rejected the offer because it was not supported by the “other members of the [Iranian political] structure”. 

Macron did not make the same assertions when Araghchi travelled to Cairo earlier this month to sign a deal with the Director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on behalf of his country. By signing the agreement, Iran promised that it would look for ways to allow the return of IAEA inspectors, after the Iranian parliament suspended cooperation with the agency following U.S.-Israeli attacks on three nuclear sites in Natanz, Esfahan, and Fordow. 

What is ‘snapback’?

The "snapback mechanism" is a provision of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). It enables any of the deal's signatories to unilaterally reimpose all pre-JCPOA UN sanctions on Iran if they believe Iran is not adhering to the agreement. Under the JCPOA, Iran agreed to limit its nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief.

However, the JCPOA has been largely defunct for much of the past decade. The U.S. left the pact in 2018 and re-imposed stringent embargoes against Iran, sending its economy into a tailspin. With Washington’s withdrawal, European signatories began backpedaling on their own commitments despite publicly clinging to the deal. Roughly 18 months after this collective Western cold shoulder, Iran began rolling back some of its own promises.

The other two JCPOA participants, China and Russia, believe the West is responsible for the lame-duck state of the 2015 deal, and have called on Europe and Washington to return to diplomacy.

Another significant blow to the JCPOA came with the U.S.-Israel airstrikes that targeted the very facilities the 2015 deal was meant to safeguard back in June. President Donald Trump has claimed multiple times since the attacks happened that they “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear sites. 

The looming reimposition of UN sanctions against Tehran is widely seen as the knockout blow. The E3 triggered the snapback mechanism in late August.  A day after Macron made his remarks, the UNSC rejected a resolution put forth by South Korea, the current president of the 15-member council, that called for the permeant lifting of anti-Iran UN sanctions. With no extension of sanctions relief in sight, the full re-imposition could take effect on September 27. 

While the concrete economic effects of these returning sanctions are expected to be limited, given that any imaginable limitation has already been imposed by Washington following its JCPOA withdrawal, they are still likely to spur a spike in Iran's currency exchange rate. 

The embargoes include a ban on conventional arms, restrictions on ballistic missile programs, and the freezing of Iranian assets. But the practical impact of these measures is debatable too. Iran's military program is largely self-sufficient, Tehran has repeatedly stated that its ballistic missile program is non-negotiable, and many Iranian assets have been frozen for years already. Furthermore, Russia and China, key allies of Iran within the United Nations Security Council, said in a statement published on Friday that they will not comply with the snapback, calling it “illegal” and “invalid”. 

Europe’s lost relevance 

Iran's foreign minister holds a seat on the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), a body comprised of the country's key political, judicial, and military leaders, as well as representatives of the Leader of the Islamic Revolution. The SNSC is responsible for making decisions on Iran's most critical foreign policy and national security matters. While Araghchi, as foreign minister, participates in these crucial deliberations as a member of the council, his primary role involves implementing the policies and decisions determined by the establishment.

So, the plan that Araghchi presented to the Europeans was not his own initiative; it represented a consensus agreed upon by the president, the judiciary chief, military officials, the speaker of parliament, and the Leader of the Islamic Revolution. 

In a post on X, Araghchi reacted to Macron’s remarks, and reminded him that he acts on behalf of the whole country. "I am pleased that President Macron has recognized the reasonableness of my proposal. However, he and the international community should be aware that I have the full backing of all bodies within the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the Supreme National Security Council," he wrote. 

Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman, Esmaeil Baghaei, appeared to return the accusations, questioning Macron's motivations for reassuring Israelis that the snapback was a "done deal." Israel has been averse to the JCPOA since its signing. 

“Why should President Macron be 'rushing' to choose an Israeli TV channel to dismiss what he admits is a REASONABLE proposal from Iran and instead reassure his 'selected' audience that snap-back is a 'done deal'?” Baghaei posted on X.

Iranians have long criticized Europeans for relinquishing their agency and relevance in international affairs, often characterizing them as having become proxies of the United States. Similar assertions are frequently made by analysts concerning other European-related issues, such as the war in Ukraine. European leaders have been excluded from peace negotiations between the U.S. and Russia, and the Trump administration is often described as being dismissive of European perspectives on how the war in Ukraine should end. 

After Friday’s voting, Iran’s UN mission said in a statement that Europe ignored Tehran's offer due to “political greed” and based on “baseless claims”.

What could happen next

There are few calls within Iran for the government to actively prevent the re-imposition of UN sanctions. After the dismantling of the JCPOA, years of debilitating embargoes, and a full-scale war imposed against Iran, few within the country's political and analytical circles believe Tehran should make concessions to prevent the "snapback" of sanctions. This is why the Cairo agreement received backlash within Iran, with observers accusing the government of beating a dead horse. 

Nonetheless, Iran's Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) previously announced that the Cairo agreement would not be implemented if pre-JCPOA UN sanctions were reinstated. Lawmakers and several diplomats have also stated that Iran will consider withdrawing from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) immediately following the restoration of sanctions.