Iran's Economic Growth Projected at 6 Percent

August 4, 2002 - 0:0
TEHRAN - Mohsen Nourbakhsh, The head of the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) commenting on the latest report of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), stated that IMF in it's evaluation of the Iranian economy, predicts a rate of between 5.8 to 6.0 percent economic growth for Iran.

He iterated that, the 5.8-percent figure represents the minimum economic growth rate for the country. Nourbakhsh stressed that the gross domestic product (GDP) figure includes oil and non-oil sectors, but usually the non-oil sector growth have contributed more to the GDP figure.

He added that due to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) fixed production quotas within the last two years, the oil sector has not contributed much to the growth rate. However other sectors especially housing, industry and agriculture have contributed more to the rate of economic growth.

Nourbakhsh confirmed that the economic growth rate predicted by the IMF is in line with the government's three year Economic Development Plan.

He further added, the AAf institute formed by five hundred international banks has confirmed the 5.8 percent rate for economic growth in Iran.

At first glance, it may seem appropriate to rely on economic studies carried out by international organizations and institutions as noted by the head of the CBI, but one should also concentrate efforts to mobilize domestic participation as well.

Surely Iran is endowed with intelligent and well-educated people. First, the major problem seems to be the lack of will on the part of the authorities to establish an up to date and well-researched economic database. Second, after compiling precise and usable information, Iranian academics, professional advisors, and anyone willing to offer valuable advice in economics should be truly invited to participate.

Obtaining exact and complete data in all branches of science, which definitely includes economics, is an absolute necessity. This is what is missing in Iran at present. The supplied information and data is either patchy or incomplete. So no wonder that we may not be able to rely on domestic resources.

If IMF and other international organizations can gather economic data about Iran, it seems possible that better and more reliable information can be compiled domestically.

According to economic theory, developing countries (especially the oil-rich developing nations) can accommodate growth rates in excess of 10 percent with slightly higher inflation compared to developed nations. Thus it is reasonable to doubt the accuracy of the above international forecasts.

Iranian authorities are well advised to seek and secure proper economic monitoring and make use of the readily available domestic resources.