The contemporary world is undergoing a transition from a unipolar order toward a multi-centered one—an order in which power is distributed among numerous actors, and the ability of states to influence global affairs increasingly depends on their geopolitical capacities, deterrent power, strategic independence, and their capability to shape their regional environment.

Throughout this transformation, the West—understood as a constellation of political, economic, and security structures that dominated global affairs for centuries—now faces deep structural challenges that have diminished its ability to maintain hegemony. This situation not only reveals a gradual decline in Western power but also creates unique opportunities for a country like Iran, which enjoys a privileged geopolitical position, historical depth, and strategic capabilities. Examining these opportunities in relation to the West’s challenges offers a more accurate understanding of Iran’s potential role in the emerging global order.

What the challenges are

Over the past two decades, Western powers have confronted a set of intertwined crises that have weakened the foundations of their global hegemony. One of the most significant of these crises is the erosion of soft power and a decline in normative legitimacy. Costly and fruitless wars, interventionist policies, double standards regarding human rights and security, and support for aligned but undemocratic regimes have all damaged the moral and cultural image of the West. This trend has weakened its persuasive power and created greater space for alternative political and security models to emerge.

Economically, the West faces serious difficulties. Stagnation, heavy government debt, dependence on Asian supply chains, the energy crisis, and intense competition from China and other rising powers have reduced the West’s economic capacity to maintain its global superiority. Weakness in the economic realm naturally affects foreign policy and limits its ability to intervene abroad.

Domestically, Western countries are experiencing social fragmentation, political polarization, identity crises, the growth of extremist movements, and declining trust in elites. These internal pressures force governments to redirect their energy and resources toward managing domestic affairs, leaving them with diminished capacity to shape the external environment.

Another defining trend is the decline of Western military dominance. The unsuccessful experiences in Afghanistan, Iraq, and other regions, along with high military costs and the inefficiency of classical warfare models, have shown that Western hard power no longer guarantees success. The rise of asymmetric warfare, advanced drones, cyber operations, and hybrid tactics has reduced the West’s strategic advantages and transformed security dynamics.

Meanwhile, the liberal international order—once based on institutions, cooperation, and free trade—is suffering from performance crises. The inefficiency of global organizations, double standards, and the predominance of power politics over the rule of law have weakened these institutions’ ability to manage global crises. This has opened more space for independent, non-Western actors to propose new mechanisms for cooperation, security, and trade.

Taken together, these developments show that the West’s structural power is eroding, creating a global and regional environment increasingly conducive to an expanded role for Iran.

The opportunities

In the context of the West’s relative decline, Iran—due to its geopolitical assets—finds itself in a position to play a decisive role in shaping regional order and influencing international relations. These opportunities can be analyzed in three major domains: regional influence, economy and energy, and security.

Regionally, the West’s failures in managing crises in West Asia have produced a power vacuum that Iran is capable of filling. Iran’s influential presence in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, as well as its role in securing the Persian Gulf and West Asia, has strengthened the country’s position as a pillar of regional stability. This influence is not based on direct intervention, but rather on social, cultural, political, and security networks that operate organically. As Western military presence declines, these strategic networks become more effective and impactful.

In the fields of economy and energy, Iran remains one of the world’s most important actors. The energy crisis in Europe and the rising demand of East Asian economies for stable resources have renewed the global significance of Iran’s energy geography. Iran’s vast oil and gas reserves, access to open waters, and its location at the crossroads of global energy routes give it the potential for a stronger role in shaping global energy dynamics. Additionally, the restructuring of global trade routes and the growing importance of land corridors have elevated Iran’s position in Eurasian transit projects. The North–South and East–West corridors and other regional connectivity initiatives could turn Iran into a future hub of global transit.

Diplomatically, the emergence of new international alliances and frameworks—such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), BRICS, and various regional economic and security mechanisms—creates fresh opportunities for Iran to participate in non-Western platforms. The decline of Western legitimacy and its reduced ability to impose its preferred international order provide Iran with space to propose alternative political, security, and economic narratives. This narrative emphasizes national sovereignty, South-South cooperation, and regional mechanisms for security—an approach that offers an alternative to Western military alliances.

In the security and defense sphere, Iran’s development of indigenous technologies in drones, missiles, electronic warfare, and asymmetric strategies has created a stable deterrent power. The reduced ability of Western powers to conduct military operations has increased the weight of Iran’s deterrence and strengthened its influence on regional security equations. This deterrence not only protects Iran’s borders but also helps maintain a regional balance of power and enables Iran to ensure its security beyond its immediate geography.

To make effective use of opportunities arising from the West’s structural challenges, Iran can pursue a multilayered foreign policy strategy. First, it should activate a balanced diplomacy that prioritizes engagement with the East, the Global South, and independent powers, using great-power competition to maximize its bargaining power. Second, it must expand energy and transit infrastructure to reinforce its strategic position and connect its economy to major regional networks. Third, Iran can propose region-building initiatives in security, economic cooperation, and crisis management—efforts that would position Iran as a central actor in regional dialogue and provide alternatives to foreign intervention. Finally, strengthening strategic depth remains vital for ensuring national security and neutralizing potential threats.

If the structural decline of the West continues, the international system will move further toward multipolarity. In such an order, states that possess political independence, defensive capability, and geostrategic advantages will assume key roles. Iran—given its strategic capabilities—is well placed to secure a stable position within this emerging power structure. Reduced Western pressure, increased bargaining power, and Iran’s ability to serve as a bridge between the evolving East and West are among the potential outcomes of this trajectory.

The West’s structural transformation and multi-layered crises have created a set of geopolitical opportunities for Iran. Through its privileged geography, vast energy resources, defensive capabilities, strategic depth, and regional networks, Iran is positioned to play a decisive role during the global transition underway. By employing active foreign policy, balanced diplomacy, strengthened deterrence, and expanded regional cooperation frameworks, Iran can consolidate its role in the future world order and emerge as one of the key players in international politics.