BEIRUT — In his first year as leader, Sheikh Naim Qassem has driven Hezbollah’s recovery, refusing to yield to grief or crisis and instead launching a disciplined campaign to rebuild its military, moral, and organizational strength.

At a time when hostile narratives sought to portray Hezbollah as an exhausted movement, he transformed adversity into opportunity through a blend of political direction, ideological education, and spiritual renewal. 
His recent address marking one year of leadership outlined a clear vision: firm readiness for defense, rejection of preemptive war, and the essential need to maintain arms to preserve both dignity and continued existence.

This approach reestablished internal cohesion and restored the Resistance’s true image to both supporters and adversaries.

Between war and containment

Meanwhile, the Lebanese public opinion remains preoccupied with one question: When will war resume?
A growing conviction holds that Israel is preparing for a large-scale confrontation, citing Lebanon’s inability to disarm the Resistance as a pretext. Tel Aviv promotes this narrative internationally, alleging that Hezbollah is rearming and that recent assassinations and airstrikes are meant to obstruct this process.

Israel continues to violate the ceasefire with Hezbollah that was agreed nearly a year ago, killing more civilians in Lebanon. On Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that his regime would not seek approval for operations in Lebanon or Gaza, despite agreeing to ceasefires in both. Under the terms of the November 2024 ceasefire, Israel was supposed to withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon by January 2025. However, its troops still remain at five border outposts that Israel deems strategic.

Politically and diplomatically, the tension has been evident. Yisrael Katz’s inspection of the border, accompanied by U.S. envoy Morgan Ortagus ahead of her visit to Beirut for the “Mechanism” meeting, underscored the rising anxiety. 
Reports also surfaced of an imminent Egyptian security delegation warning that “the situation is extremely dangerous.”

Last week, a group of UN experts voiced alarm about Israel’s continued strikes in Lebanon. “These attacks have resulted in a mounting toll of civilian deaths and injuries and destruction and damage of infrastructure, housing, the environment and agricultural zones vital to civilian livelihoods,” they said. Israel has killed more than 4,000 people in Lebanon after launching war on the country in September last year. This includes more than 100 people since the ceasefire went into effect on 27 November.

Amid this volatile situation, Sheikh Qassem, in an interview with Al-Manar TV, presented his leadership doctrine with precision: war remains possible, but not inevitable!
The Resistance is fully prepared to defend Lebanon if attacked, yet it has made no decision to initiate confrontation.
His message to the Zionists and their American allies was direct and unmistakable: “Do not attempt new wars. What you failed to achieve before, you will not achieve again.”
He urged respect for the ceasefire, describing it as serving mutual interests while preserving Lebanon’s sovereignty.
By endorsing the ceasefire, Sheikh Qassem affirmed that it is the Lebanese state’s duty to respond to Israeli breaches of the ceasefire.
 
However, he left open the possibility of direct confrontation by saying that it depends on “field developments.”
He affirmed that the Resistance’s weapons are both legitimate and essential in confronting Israel’s continued occupation and aggression. 
“Israel needs no pretexts for its attacks,” he noted, pointing to Syria as proof of its expansionist intent.

A shift in strategic doctrine

Explaining the Resistance’s current military posture, Naim Qassem said: “From 2006 to 2023, deterrence relied on displaying excess power. Today, we neither display nor claim excess. We operate normally, with sufficient strength to defend ourselves. Why flaunt what we already possess?”
His conclusion was deliberate and balanced, affirming: “We are ready to defend, but not to initiate. There is no decision to start a battle, nor to seek one.”
Israeli media quickly responded. Kan TV aired a report titled “Toward a New Confrontation?” claiming Hezbollah refuses to disarm, while Walla News alleged that the Resistance is “rebuilding its capabilities for the next war.”
Maariv also quoted security sources warning that determination to maintain power “makes future campaigns inevitable,” calling the current calm “an illusion.”

Israel is under the illusion that it has weakened Hezbollah and that the group is unable to defend against further aggression. Yet the spirit of resistance remains alive within the movement, buoyed by growing popular backing. A new war between Israel and Hezbollah could cost Israel dearly, with unforeseen consequences.

Right to bear arms as a necessity for defense 

Within this charged atmosphere, Sheikh Qassem’s first year stands out not only as a phase of continuity, but of renewal and restoration. His leadership symbolizes the transformation from crisis to resilience — the rebuilding of an institution that endured loss and pressure yet it emerged more unified and firmly anchored in its ideology.
His appointment in February 2025 as the representative of the Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Lebanon further enhanced his authority, giving his words both religious legitimacy and strategic influence. This dual role enables him to balance deterrence with stability, and military readiness with political restraint.
One year under Sheikh Qassem’s leadership, Hezbollah has tested the strategy of equilibrium: maintaining deterrence without sliding into a costly confrontation, preserving readiness while promoting internal calm. His doctrine rests on three pillars — defensive readiness, opposition to preemptive war, and the right to bear arms as a necessity for defense in the face of occupation.