BEIRUT - On the eve of the session to elect the Lebanese president, it seems that General Joseph Aoun, the candidate of the international quintet will fail not only in the first round as he doesn’t obtain the required 86 parliamentary votes, but also in the second round, which requires 65 votes. It is because his election will require a constitutional amendment in his capacity as commander of the Lebanese army.

Currently, there are three main candidates: the commander of the army supported by Washington and Riyadh; the acting director general of public security, Major General Elias al-Bissari, supported by the Amal Movement and Hezbollah blocs aka the “Shiite duo” and their allies; and the director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund, Dr. Jihad Azour, whose name has been re-proposed as an alternative candidate in the event the election of Aoun fails, as he does not seem capable of obtaining 40+ votes.

According to the Lebanese constitution, which is derived from the French constitution, the quorum for electing the president in the first round is two-thirds.  In the following rounds of voting, it is half plus one. 

This was previously repeatedly confirmed by Nabih Berri, Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, who said, “The constitution stipulates that the President of the Republic is elected by two-thirds in the first round, while in the second round, he is elected by an absolute majority.”

Amos Hochstein, the US envoy to West Asia, had stated that General Aoun is the closest to the internationally required specifications, linking aid to Lebanon to the political reform process.

Meanwhile, Reuters has revealed that the Biden administration would transfer $95 million in military aid allocated to Egypt to Lebanon “to professionalize the Lebanese Armed Forces, enhance border security, combat terrorism, and meet security requirements resulting from the change of power in Syria.”

During his meeting with a group of representatives from various parliamentary blocs in the presence of US Ambassador Lisa Johnson, Hochstein reiterated his support for the election of a president who would have the support of the Arab and international communities, saying: “Joseph Aoun is a figure we know well. If you support his candidacy, he will have broad international support and acceptance.”

However, Berri’s response was as sharp as that to Saudi envoy Yazid bin Farhan, confirming to Hochstein that General Aoun “does not enjoy consensus; that there is a problem regarding the constitutional amendment [for his candidacy]; and that Aoun is not the figure capable of formulating understandings with the political forces in the country.”

Speaker Berri told Hochstein that there is a significant group of Lebanese supporting candidate Elias al-Bissari and that the latter’s election does not require a constitutional amendment.

In the meantime, informed sources said that the visit of Jean-Yves Le Drian, the French envoy to Beirut, “cannot be counted on to change anything.”

For his part, after his plan to fly the quorum of the session failed in the event the “Shiite duo” was able to elect their candidate by half plus one during the successive sessions, Samir Geagea, the leader of the Lebanese Forces, has continued to find a way out, as various MPs informed him that they did not intend to withdraw because the currently proposed candidates do not provoke the five-member committee, especially at this time, when Lebanon needs Western and Arab assistance. 

Despite the clear support for electing the army commander, Geagea rebelled against Saudi dictates by telling Yazid bin Farhan, the Saudi envoy, that he would not elect a candidate who wanted to “impose himself by force.”

Obviously, Geagea’s position is not related to his position as the army commander, but rather to what he sees as his best opportunity to reach the presidency.

Geagea has recently been claiming that the condition for accepting Aoun’s nomination is dependent on the approval of the “Shiite duo,” since it is not possible for him to obtain 86 votes without them and without the votes of independent MPs close to them, in addition to the MPs of the “Free Patriotic Movement.” 

In his statement, Geagea said, “If the resistance team changes its opinion, publicly and clearly, by officially announcing the nomination of General Joseph Aoun, we are ready to look carefully into this matter.” 

According to MP Gebran Bassil, head of the “Free Patriotic Movement,” the election of the army commander is “unconstitutional,” calling for not allowing outsiders to impose candidates because it is “an insult to the MPs.” 

Bassil expressed his fear of any event “that may be security-related” that would lead to the disruption of the election session.

In parallel, sources have been leaked that the “Shiite duo” and the “Free Patriotic Movement” are in coordination regarding the election of General Al-Bissari in the second round.

Apparently, Thursday, which marks the 13th session, will not end the 800+ days of presidential vacuum. Hence, it will be postponed until after Trump’s inauguration on Jan 20.