BEIRUT – The Israeli military and media estimates fluctuate in regard to the conscription and reserve crisis and its impact on the continuation of the war on the Gaza and Lebanese fronts.

Obviously, if the Israeli regime decides to escalate the war it will face serious difficulty to continue relying on exhausted reserve soldiers who have served for more than 200 days and called up more than once.

Recent data from the Manpower Department of the IOF General Staff shows that the military establishment urgently needs more than 10,000 additional soldiers, at least 7,500 of whom for ground battles.

Also, according to Haaretz, of the reserve soldiers who have been called up for service since October 7 last year 54% have served more than 100 days and 18% more than 200 days. Also, according to the army’s data, this shortage of troops will entail calling up the Haredim, who threaten to bring down Netanyahu’s government if they are summoned, and if Netanyahu does not enact legislation that completely exempts them from compulsory service.

Hence, without the Haredim, it is difficult to continue the war given the fact that they will not fill the gap, especially since they will most likely not participate in any ground missions.

Almost two months before the Republican President-elect, Donald Trump, and his far-right team begin their work, the Washington Post revealed that Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs, Ron Dermer, informed Trump and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, that the occupying entity is accelerating efforts to push for a ceasefire in Lebanon. 

Haaretz said the goal behind the decision is to give Trump’s new administration a foreign policy gain as Netanyahu, who has long been accused by his critics of trying to prolong the war to preserve his political survival, is betting that the right political moment to achieve a breakthrough has arrived. 

Israel Ziv, the former director of operations in the Israeli army, has said Netanyahu was waiting for Trump to win the White House to grant him this reward.

Regarding Russia’s role in the talks of a ceasefire in Lebanon, Frank Lowenstein, who served as the US envoy for Palestinian-Israeli negotiations during the Obama era, believes that the Russians under Biden do not have an effective role.

Meanwhile, The New York Times commented on Larijani’s visit to Beirut as there are no public indications that Iran and Hezbollah are willing to submit to Israeli demands, especially as the resistance movement has shown its capability to continue launching missiles and drones at the occupied Palestinian territories regularly. 

The Times warned that the increased pace of Israeli air strikes on Lebanon, accompanied by the expansion of the ground operation, could undermine the diplomatic track. Amir Avivi, a retired Israeli general, stated that the occupation entity’s goal is to destroy more of Hezbollah’s military facilities. In addition, there is a belief in the Army’s top echelon that this could force the resistance movement to agree to a settlement under more favorable terms for Tel Aviv.

Despite all the hardships that the resistance movements in Gaza and Lebanon have gone through, the occupation army has suffered 795 fatalities including officers. About 63 of them are squadrons’ commanders, in addition to a large number of wounded with permanent injuries.

Netanyahu is thus obligated to reach a “compromise” on the Lebanese front to withdraw as many regular forces as possible and release the largest number of reserve soldiers from the Lebanon and Gaza wars, while keeping the regular forces in Gaza, believing that they will be able to continue fighting.