MOSCOW - Iranian political experts have quickly projected that a Trump victory in the presidential elections could lead to renewed U.S.-Russia relations due to Trump and Putin's reportedly friendly ties. Some in Iran worry that this shift might undermine the strategic partnership between Iran and Russia, which has been strengthened over the past three years.

However, a closer look at Russian experts' views presents a more balanced and realistic perspective. These analysts believe that the U.S.-Russia relationship is unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels, given the profound trust issues that have persisted since the Ukraine crisis. Moreover, the Russian-Iranian partnership, which has gained unprecedented momentum, is unlikely to be sacrificed for potential rapprochement with the U.S.    

Examining the opinions of notable Russian experts can shed light on Moscow's likely short-term approach to U.S. relations, especially regarding the Ukraine conflict.

Reactions from Russian analysts

In initial responses, some speculate that Trump's return might lead Russia to slightly slow its Eurasian integration efforts, potentially making space for renewed discussions with the U.S., especially on the Ukraine crisis. Yet, Alexander Dugin, a prominent proponent of Eurasianism in Russia, expresses a different view. He argues that while Trump’s administration may deprioritize the Ukraine crisis, it will likely focus on domestic U.S. issues and its trade war with China. Dugin, who frames Russia's actions in Ukraine as part of a destiny-driven mission to “de-Nazify Kyiv,” is adamant that this campaign should continue westward in Ukraine. In his view, even if Trump were to ask Putin to halt military operations in Ukraine, such a request would be improbable to affect Russia's plans.

Similarly, Andrey Bezrukov, an international relations expert and professor at Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs University, believes that resolving the Ukraine issue depends more on Russia's military progress than the U.S. elections. He emphasizes Trump’s unpredictability, citing Iran's experience with U.S. policy shifts, and warns of the risks if future Democratic administrations disregard any agreements. Bezrukov adds that Trump's administration would likely focus primarily on countering China's global influence, rather than confronting Russia directly in Ukraine. However, this does not necessarily mean the end of U.S. support for Ukraine; the U.S. might shift more of this responsibility to Europe, despite Trump's potential disagreements with European leaders.

Andrey Sushentsov, director of the Valdai Discussion Club’s programs and an expert on international relations, says U.S. institutions constrained Trump’s policy intentions on Ukraine during his presidency from 2017-2021. During his campaign, Trump asserted he could resolve the Ukraine crisis swiftly, but Sushentsov views such claims skeptically. He argues that Ukraine is a tool for the U.S. to manage Russia’s influence, rally European allies, and compel them to bear the economic and social costs of the crisis unless the U.S. decides that Ukraine is no longer an effective lever.

In reviewing these insights from prominent Russian analysts and commentaries in Russian media, it is apparent that most Russian experts are skeptical about any rapid impact of a Trump-Putin rapport on resolving the Ukraine conflict. Given the unprecedented level of Russian-Iranian relations over the past three years, it is unlikely that this alliance would be sacrificed for hypothetical negotiations between a Republican-led U.S. and Russia.