By Xavier Villar

Facing new realities: the future of Israel's security

November 5, 2024 - 21:57

MADRID – The Israeli police and the internal intelligence agency Shin Bet have announced the arrest of a network of Israeli citizens suspected of spying for Iran. According to the authorities, the detainees allegedly provided information about military bases and conducted surveillance on various prominent individuals in the country. 

In a statement issued last Thursday, October 31, Israeli authorities noted that "Iran's efforts to recruit Israeli citizens continue to be neutralized." In this context, the detention of an Israeli couple was confirmed; they are accused of gathering information on critical infrastructure and military installations, as well as tracking a figure affiliated with the National Security Studies Institute in Tel Aviv.

Investigators maintain that the network had been active for approximately two years. Israeli media reports indicate that the suspects photographed and collected data on various strategic facilities, including the defense headquarters in Tel Aviv, known as Kirya, as well as the Nevatim and Ramat David air bases.

This case adds to a series of recent arrests related to espionage. About ten days ago, Israeli intelligence agencies reported the arrest of seven individuals in East al-Quds, accused of "collaborating with Iran in the planning of an assassination of an Israeli nuclear scientist" and carrying out acts of "sabotage" within the occupied territories. The day before, authorities had arrested another seven individuals for alleged espionage on behalf of Iran, with supposed plans to assassinate scientists, mayors, security officials, and prominent Israeli figures.

At the end of September, Israeli security agencies reported the arrest of an Israeli citizen identified as Moti Maman, suspected of participating in an Iran-backed plan to target high-ranking officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Whether or not the recent espionage accusations are true, they highlight, on one hand, the vulnerabilities of Israeli security, and on the other, the advanced intelligence capabilities of the Islamic Republic of Iran. In this regard, it is worth recalling, for example, the infiltration of the central server of the Israeli railway company, an attack that enabled the perpetrators to extract information about infrastructures and publish images of the electrical equipment used in these facilities.

One operation that deserves highlighting is that of the hacker group known as "Moses' Staff," which conducted a large-scale hack by publishing images of passports, identification documents, and other materials belonging to Israeli military personnel. In addition, this group managed to infiltrate Israel's electrical grids, hack the country's alert system, and disseminate private images of high-ranking officials, such as Defense Minister Benny Gantz and former Prime Minister Ehud Barak.

Another critical moment that revealed a vulnerability in Israeli security was the hacking of the mobile phone of the head of the Mossad. Last September, the Israeli digital outlet Walla reported that a hacker group called "Open Hands" had gained access to the personal device of the intelligence agency's director. This attack, attributed by Israel to Iran, was followed by the publication of a second series of images extracted from the Mossad chief's devices, marking an escalation in Iranian intrusion into the highest levels of Israeli security.

From a strategic perspective, recent events have highlighted the weaknesses in Israel's security, especially following the Hamas offensive known as Operation Al Aqsa Storm. This was compounded by the Iranian attacks dubbed True Promise Operations I and II, which demonstrated that Israel's alleged qualitative superiority—the strategy of compensating for its limited resources through technological and military advantages—was insufficient to prevent Iran from achieving its strategic objectives. Collectively, these incidents suggest that despite its advanced infrastructure and cutting-edge technology, Israel faces increasing challenges in safeguarding its most sensitive assets from external threats.

In this context, the coordinated actions of Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas have put Israel's security doctrine in jeopardy. This strategy, based on a series of principles aimed at ensuring the stability and defense of the regime, has been challenged by the joint operations of these three key players in the so-called Axis of Resistance. This front is further bolstered by the support of Yemen’s Ansarullah and Iraqi militias aligned with Iranian interests.

The incursions and cyberattacks from this coalition have managed to weaken and undermine the strategic pillars upon which Israeli security doctrine rests, such as technological superiority, autonomous border defense, and the ability to anticipate external threats. The combination of resources and tactics employed by these groups demonstrates a level of resilience and counterattack that Israel has not fully been able to counter, complicating its response capacity and reflecting a weakening of its defensive capabilities.

A key and fundamental example in Israel's security strategy is the principle of preserving the very existence of the state, which stands as a clear and central priority in its doctrine. Since October 7, 2023, this survival has come under threat, calling into question the stability of the Zionist colonial project for the first time in a long while. Moreover, Israel's almost absolute dependence on U.S. support undermines its autonomy and sovereignty, exposing the limitations of its self-defense capabilities without external backing.

Another crucial pillar of this doctrine is the principle of taking the battle to enemy territory. Given Israel's limited strategic depth, moving confrontations outside its borders is essential to protect vital infrastructure and strategic assets. However, recent coordinated attacks have brought the conflict into the occupied territories, challenging this principle. For instance, the ongoing bombardments by Hezbollah have forced the evacuation of settlers in border areas with Lebanon, weakening defenses along this critical front. The two military operations launched by Iran — and signals of a potential third — have succeeded in destabilizing Israel's traditional military superiority, transforming its own safe haven into a combat zone.

A third key principle in Israeli security doctrine that has also been compromised is the premise of avoiding prolonged conflicts. Traditionally, Israel has sought to minimize the duration of confrontations, achieving its objectives swiftly and decisively, fully aware of the challenges involved in maintaining extended military mobilization. Yet, the conflict in Gaza, despite heavy bombardments and intense military operations, remains ongoing, and on the Lebanese front, the Israeli ground operation has failed to meet its initial objectives. Both fronts remain active, creating sustained tension that Israel has not previously experienced on this scale.

Furthermore, Israel's strategy of creating "artificial strategic depth" through settlements has come under scrutiny. This approach aimed to distance population centers and key industrial areas from conflict lines by establishing colonies in occupied Palestinian territory. However, the current wave of resistance in Palestine and southern Lebanon has transformed these areas into points of vulnerability, exposed to regular attacks and local uprisings that challenge Israel's ability to maintain control. Regions once considered buffers of security have now become focal points of constant risk.

These vulnerabilities not only undermine the myth of Israel's superiority and "invincibility," but they also call into question the pillars of its security doctrine. The strategy that for decades was viewed as a guarantee of stability now faces serious doubts about its long-term viability. Israel finds itself at a crossroads: the cracks in its security doctrine pose profound risks, not only to its political stability but also to its ability to remain a strategic player in the region.