TEHRAN – Fueled by intelligence reports from American and Israeli agencies, Western and Israeli media outlets initially predicted that Iran would strike back against Israel within 24 to 72 hours following the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh on July 31.

Three weeks after the terrorist attack, nobody yet knows when and how Iran will be responding to Israel. Some are wondering whether Iran will be responding at all. 

If we take a look at what Iranians have been saying to the media or their counterparts, the answer is yes. Multiple high-ranking Iranian officials have repeated the Leader of the Islamic Revolution’s vow to avenge Haniyeh’s blood, who was assassinated in Tehran hours after attending the inauguration ceremony of President Masoud Pezeshkian. 

“I don’t think 20 days is enough to say Iran has abandoned retaliation. I believe there is no doubt that the response will be carried out. What we don’t know yet is how and when it will come,” said Mehdi Bakhtiari, a war reporter and expert on West Asia.

Arabaeen, a major factor that may have postponed Iran’s retaliation

“There are numerous international, political, and military issues Iranians must ponder before punishing Israel. In our current situation, the most important one is perhaps the Arbaeen pilgrimage,” Bakhtiari explained. 

The Arabaeen pilgrimage which marks 40 days after the martyrdom anniversary of Imam Hussein (AS), draws millions of Iranians to neighboring Iraq each year. The event necessitates a major mobilization of Iranian military and intelligence forces to safeguard pilgrims in a region vulnerable to terrorist attacks. Millions of Pakistani and Afghan pilgrims also enter Iraq through Iran, traveling a distance of over 2,400 kilometers to reach the city of Karbala where Imam Hussein’s holy shrine is located. 

Following three terrorist attacks in Iran over the past two years, analysts warn that the Arbaeen pilgrimage presents a prime target for terrorists. The high concentration of pilgrims traveling between Iran and Iraq, combined with the religious significance of Arabeen for Shia Muslims, makes it a vulnerable event.

"In addition to diverting attention from Iran's military capabilities, decision-makers are facing more limitations. Conducting military operations could significantly disrupt flight operations. Millions of Iranians have traveled to Iraq and many of them rely on air travel. Carrying out military action at this time could leave these individuals stranded in a foreign country."

What is more effective: a quick response or a deliberate one?

International observers recognize Iran for being a strategic and deliberate player in the field of politics and diplomacy. Iranians view the world as a complicated chess game. In playing it, they don’t just move pieces; they orchestrate a symphony of strategy and make the right decision at the right time. 

Iran's deliberate and measured approach, while offering strategic benefits, also carries inherent risks. The time Tehran is taking to respond to Israel has inadvertently given its Western allies the opportunity to assemble a military coalition in Israel's defense. This mirrors a previous scenario on April 14 where a coalition of the U.S., UK, Germany, France, and certain Arab nations intervened to protect Israel against Iran’s Operation True Promise. The Western and Arab bedfellows ultimately claimed credit for the majority of Iranian drones and missiles that were shot down. History appears to be repeating itself, with even greater efforts being deployed this time around.

When you deliver a quick response, the enemy also gets less time to attempt to sway your decision through mind games, strategists believe. In recent weeks, Western powers have actively sought to dissuade Iran from retaliating against Israel, engaging with various regional and international actors. This includes the Jordanian Foreign Minister's unprecedented visit to Iran this month, his first in nearly two decades. Washington also managed to mock the world by orchestrating a new round of ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas and linking its outcome to Iran’s potential response. The initiative, of course, yielded no results and only laid bare Israel’s unwillingness to pursue peace. 

But analysts argue that at least when it comes to Israel in 2024, the longer Iran takes, the more it can harvest favorable outcomes. “Israel is already in a dire economic situation after 10 months of fruitless war in Gaza.  Having to stay on high alert out of fear for Iran’s response significantly exacerbates those economic woes,” Bakhtiari stated. 

Israelis have also lived with constant and debilitating anxiety in the past 20 days. Reports show that people in the occupied territories are spending their nights in shelters and bunkers. “Fear grips us all. The streets are deserted, the shops are empty. We live in constant dread, waiting for Iran to strike. Even leaders who have vowed to retaliate threaten Iran with trembling voices,” said a Rabbi while addressing a crowd of Jews in Tel Aviv earlier this week.

“Like I said no one knows how and when Iran will retaliate. But what I can predict is that whatever that response is, it is going to be harsher than Operation True Promise,” Bakhtiari said.