TEHRAN – The world was shocked when Israeli fighter jets provided by the United States attacked the consular part of Iran’s embassy in Damascus, leading to the martyrdom of senior Iranian military advisors who were staying in the diplomatic building.

For a regime that has made every effort in recent years to create a law-abiding and oppressed image for itself in international forums, what does such unusual behavior signify?

The fabricated history of the Zionist regime before and after Al-Aqsa Storm

On 7 October 2023 unbelievable news shook the global media space. Hamas fighters crossed the barrier wall between Gaza and the occupied territories entering Zionist settlements and dealing a heavy blow to Israel’s first line of defense. In this attack, some of the Zionist regime's soldiers and settlers also fell into captivity.

According to Zionist media reports, this attack resulted in over 1000 casualties with more than 200 individuals taken captive. Although Hamas fighters did not intend to stay in the settlements and seemed to aim at striking a blow to the regime's prestige and taking captives for exchange with Palestinian prisoners, due to the unpreparedness of the Zionist army, the attack expanded further, leading to scattered battles in the settlements for two days following the operation.

In these circumstances, the extremist cabinet of Benjamin Netanyahu, formed by an alliance with the most hardline political groups, faced its toughest challenge since the establishment of the regime. Perhaps even contrary to the anticipation of some of the staunchest supporters of Israel, the extremists in the regime’s political circle concluded that they needed to set three main objectives to overcome this newfound challenge. 

Zionist's wish for the destruction of Hamas

5 months and 11 days have passed since October 27th, the day Israel began its ground offensive into Gaza. According to reports by the Israeli military, the regime has managed to occupy a significant part of Gaza’s territory. There is however no evidence that the regime has managed to “eradicate” Hamas, or gain access to the vast majority of the enclave’s underground tunnels. 

The regime also says that it has so far killed over 13,000 Hamas fighters without providing any substantial evidence to back its claims. Besides, the high spirits of Palestinian fighters coupled with the untrammeled support of people seems to defy the Israeli reports.  

It is natural that resistance against an enemy equipped with advanced weapons, superior air force, and control over vital infrastructure like water, electricity, and the internet would be nearly impossible, but this symmetric resistance withdrawal is not considered a defeat for Hamas even by the regime's experts.

Gaza, a land without Palestinian sovereignty

One of the things that, despite the emphasis of the regime's supporters, especially the U.S., Netanyahu never believed in was the two-state solution. The U.S. has revisited the two-state solution, stressing the formation of a post-war Palestinian state with the exclusion of Hamas. Some have even suggested that Gaza be governed by PLO (Palestinian Liberation Organization) or be under the supervision of Jordan as well as international observers. Netanyahu, however, seems to be completely averse to the two-state solution even under such conditions.  His behaviors and interviews show that he only sees the destruction of Gaza as a solution to the regime’s woes. 

Netanyahu deeply disagrees with Arab and Western leaders on the governance of post-war Gaza and the forced displacement of the enclave’s residents. This uncertainty over the future will inevitably lead to the resurgence of resistance groups. Considering how Netanyahu has not managed to eliminate Gaza from the political geographical equations to date, and that Palestinians are refusing to let a second Nakba happen, the spirit of resistance and struggle will prevail as it did before the Al-Aqsa Storm in Gaza.

Proof of Anti-Semitism and the Claim of Victimhood by the Occupying Regime!

According to Netanyahu’s cabinet, the attacks on Zionist settlements were seen as the best opportunity to portray the victimization of this regime and attract international support. The Zionist regime believed it could make the most of this opportunity to prove its claims, especially the claims of the hardline members of the current cabinet regarding the necessity of combating anti-Semitism.

Contrary to the initial assumption, this objective was not achieved, but it can be said that the image of peace and lawfulness that the regime had been trying to project over the past decades has also been lost during the recent war. The killing of more than 33,000 Palestinian civilians and even attacks on UN-affiliated institutions have severely tarnished the regime's credibility. South Africa’s genocide case against the regime the global public's expressions of disgust, even in the face of Western governments' pro-Israel policies, serve as clear evidence in this regard.

The barbaric and bloodthirsty behavior of Israel’s army has not only failed to garner public support for the regime but also caused Netanyahu's main supporters to refrain from backing him.

This War is with Iran

If we take a brief look at the current situation, we find that the intense war in Gaza in recent months will not last long because Gaza lacks the capacity for a prolonged war, and any further incidents from now on will only incur credibility costs and human rights violations for the regime.

In the current circumstances where even Netanyahu's supporters are distancing themselves from him, initiating an attack on Lebanon will not be met with unwavering support. The only remaining option is to involve Iran in a confrontation that Netanyahu needs to stay in power for a longer period. The leaders of the Zionist regime justify their abnormal behavior by claiming that it’s necessary to strike in order to create deterrence in West Asia. Such justification has not even managed to convince their closest allies.

Despite the extensive efforts made by the Zionist regime from the beginning of Operation Al-Aqsa Storm, neither Iran nor the U.S. have any plans for direct confrontation. Iran has always declared that the independent resistance movement is strong enough to manage itself and deal with potential issues. Meanwhile, although the U.S. and its allies know Iran is supporting and empowering the resistance front, they all unanimously agree that Iran has not had a direct role in the recent regional battles. The points mentioned indicate that the Zionist regime has not achieved significant success in any of its four intended arenas.

What should Iran be like?

Iran's strategic position from the beginning of Operation Al-Aqsa Storm has been to strengthen the position of resistance and avoid escalating conflicts. Firstly, as mentioned, the power of resistance and the motivation of the people in Gaza are such that they can effectively strike blows against the regime, and secondly, the defeated game of the regime and the irreparable blow it has received should not turn into a regional challenge by extending the war beyond the borders of the Zionist regime. This fundamental policy requires clear conditions to be met.

1:  Correct analysis and protection of human resources

Since the spirit of resistance and struggle against the Zionist regime has become an established culture among the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran the martyrdom of an individual is not the end of Iran’s path. Rather, such incidents strengthen the motivation for more decisive actions against the regime. However, it is important not to forget that the loss of an experienced commander is not easily compensable. Therefore, it is necessary to truly believe that we are currently fighting an all-out war. That way we can shape the right mindset and manage every layer in accordance with the real circumstances. Preserving maximum security measures in neighboring regions and updating the standards in those areas seems to be one of the most important issues in this regard.

The recent attack on Damascus shows that the Zionist regime is not bound by any principle, and diplomatic sites are not immune from its aggression either. For this reason, it seems necessary for us to be ready to face the regime’s crimes in a way that would protect our human resources as our most valuable assets, while we avoid entering a war with Israel that the regime has already lost.  

2: Legal and diplomatic pursuit is necessary 

One of our longstanding weaknesses from the era of the Sacred Defense until today has been the lack of balanced alignment between military, legal, and diplomatic layers in a way that has often not allowed achievements in various fields to complement each other. It is necessary to have diplomatic and legal teams continuously active in the face of such atrocities and to collaborate closely and effectively with other countries, especially those that have previously condemned the regime's crimes, in upholding our country's international rights. Legal processes, especially in the international arena, are complex and time-consuming.

Changes in governments and the passage of time should not halt the pursuit process until results are achieved. Our failure to follow up on these procedures and bring international legal cases to a conclusion sends a serious message of weakness. Our pursuit must be such that legal confrontation becomes one of the influential factors in the decision-making of the Zionist regime regarding its crimes.

3: Having red lines is essential

We should specify red lines that, if crossed, would lead to serious repercussions. Although Iran's strategic policy of avoiding involvement in the Gaza war is entirely correct and has been designed from the beginning to strengthen various sectors of the resistance front against the Zionist regime to shape inward resistance throughout the region, if Iran's short-term behavior conveys the message that the overall stated strategy has led to unlimited caution, then Netanyahu and his proteges will no longer consider any boundaries to inflicting costs and will take utmost advantage of the opportunity to deliver irreversible blows. Especially since these retaliations will also somehow strengthen the extremist and fragile cabinet of Netanyahu. 

4: Accumulated capital of media and public opinion presents an opportunity

The notion that the media and public opinion must precisely reflect official policies and programs to counter the excesses of the Zionist regime is incorrect. Also, the concern that media demands will lead to unattainable public demands or conflict with official policies is incorrect and an opportunity loss.

In a realistic analysis, governments can, if necessary, use public opinion to support their decisions or reject demands to preserve a higher interest, especially in international arenas and to gain more points in legal and diplomatic fields. The less governmental intervention in this field, the more capital will be created, and as mentioned, this capital can be exploited with any decision taken.