TEHRAN - In a commentary on Feb. 3, the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, an American think tank, said tension in the region will not de-escalate otherwise Israel ends its war on the Gaza Strip.

Since the war started between Hamas and Israel on Oct. 7, U.S. President Joe Biden has been supporting Israel unconditionally, leading to the death of about 27,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children.

Angered over the continued U.S. support for Israel, resistance groups in Iraq and Syria have targeted American military bases in the two countries. Also, Yemen’s Ansarallah movement has been targeting ships destined to and from Israel for its carnage in Gaza. The movement has also attacked American and British vessels in the Red Sea in response to their attacks on Ansarallah sites in Yemen.

Following is the text of the commentary by the Quincy Institute:

Biden has begun striking militias in Iraq and Syria in retaliation for the three servicemen and women Americans killed last week by Iraqi militias. The White House says this is just the beginning; there will be strikes over several days, perhaps weeks. However, it will be difficult for the administration to combine a prolonged bombing campaign in the Middle East with its expressed desire to avoid a regional war.

Biden's strategy is less centered on deterring these militias and more on degrading their capability to strike the US. By that, the White House implicitly admits that the strikes will not stop the militias from continuing their attacks, just as the bombing of Yemen has not stopped Houthi attacks. Instead, the aim is to degrade their ability to strike over a longer period of time, albeit at the risk of starting a regional war.

This is ultimately a suboptimal strategy. It would be more effective to reduce their interest in striking against the US since that would render their capacity a lesser problem.

The most effective way to shift the interest of these militias is through a ceasefire in Gaza.

In fact, since it remains extremely unlikely that Biden's bombing campaign will degrade the capacity of these militias to the point of rendering them a non-threat, Biden's military action is likely to escalate matters in the region. Unless that is, it is coupled with a ceasefire in Gaza.

There is no escaping this reality: Nothing in the region is likely to de-escalate unless there is de-escalation in Gaza.

Unfortunately, Biden's approach thus far has been to avoid putting material pressure on Israel for a ceasefire. He is accepting significant risk to US soldiers - even willing to risk a regional war - to make sure he doesn't cross the Netanyahu government on this issue. 

While Biden's strategy has been unnecessarily risky thus far and has brought us to the point in which the US is once again engaged in prolonged bombing campaigns in the Middle East, continuing to refuse to pressure Israel on a ceasefire will be all the more risky going forward.