The last months had seen the bloodiest conflict in the Gaza Strip as Israel had launched relentless and unproportionate retaliation against Palestinians, which had aroused a new round of debates about the future of the legitimate cause of Palestinians. 

The misfortune of Palestine primarily lies in the unbalanced international power structure among a variety of other reasons. The future of Palestine will finally depend on the evolution of the international balance of power, which is on the course.

There is a very special logic behind the tragedy of the Palestine issue. The starting point of the very special logic behind the Palestine issue is Israel’s efforts and mentality to maximize its own interests. Israel, in the last decades, had annexed through wars the territories belonging to Palestinians based on UN General Assembly Resolution 181 adopted in 1947, and UN Security Council Resolution 242 in 1967. It encroached Palestinian lands by building settlements deep into Palestinian territories. In the current war on Gaza, which started in October 2023, it is believed that Israel intends to take all the lands in the Gaza Strip.

According to an article written in 2013 by Tzipi Hotovely, Israeli Ambassador to the UK, Israel should take five steps to annex all Palestinian territories. The proclamation, though unbelievable for the international community, is being proven to be the true policy that the Netanyahu government is pursuing.

The last decades have also seen that Israel has been maximizing its security interests. As is known, Israel has built the most powerful military forces in the region in the last decade in terms of both quality and quantity. Israel is also the only country in the region that has nuclear weapons without any IAEA inspection. In addition, Israel has been lobbying for the demilitarization of Palestine for decades for the sake of its own security.

Any country has legitimate concerns for its security. However, live and let live. Though Israel’s concerns for security should be respected, it is not legitimate to disregard the legitimate security concerns of the other side of the story.

The second part of the logic lies in U.S. domestic politics being hijacked by pro-Israel lobbyists. For decades, the U.S. has adopted an extremely biased approach toward the Israel-Palestine conflict. The reason simply lies in that U.S. presidents and congresspersons are almost unanimously supporting Israel unconditionally. According to “The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy” by John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walts, political donations from pro-Israel lobbyists have been very effective.

The third part of the logic lies in some European countries being hijacked by their Atlantic relations. Though European countries are well aware that instabilities in the Middle East would put them as the most serious risk due to U.S. biased policy, these countries, including Britain, Italy, Germany, and even France in some way regard supporting the U.S. as a way to maintain Atlantic relations so as to win U.S. security protection. That explains the reason why a significant number of European countries have followed U.S.-biased policy while keeping blind eye to the humanitarian disasters of Palestine.

A realistic approach to international relations theory does not explain all the complicated international issues but does explain the dynamics behind the Palestine issue. The U.S. remained the most important actor in the world, and Europe remained another important relevant partner. Even when they were united even in modest ways, they created obstacles to the resolution of the Palestine issue and other crises as well. Their approach has been the primary reason why the Palestine issue has not been resolved in a reasonable way over the last decades. 

Their joint support has encouraged Netanyahu to continue relentless military action in the Gaza Strip. Their joint veto of UN Security Council resolutions have nullified the efforts of the Council to play a role in stopping the conflict.

Fortunately, the world is seeing changes in the balance of power. According to statistics, the total GDP of BRICS after its expansion of January 2024 will be more than 28 trillion USD, 30 percent of the world total while the total of G7 remains 26 trillion USD, and their total population will be 46% of the world total. 

Despite its diversity, BRICS countries share a variety of crucial similarities in current international politics. A majority of them are dissatisfied with the domination of the US dollar in international financial transactions and the instrumentalization of the currency as a pressure tool. A majority of them also strongly support the legitimate rights of Palestinians. Also, they overwhelmingly voted for the UN General Assembly resolution calling for a humanitarian ceasefire. On November 21, 2023, an extraordinary BRICS summit was held on the Palestine issue, and a chair’s summary condemned any kind of individual or forcible transfer or deportation of Palestinians from their own land.

BRICS is one but not the only body that has supported the legitimate rights of Palestinians. The year 2023 also saw a robust rise of the Global South in favor of Palestine, unifying the Arab and Islamic worlds. The joint voice of the extraordinary summit of Arab and Islamic countries in solidarity with Palestinians was heard across the world on November 11, 2023.

The last two decades have seen the negligence of the Palestine issue. The year 2023 was the most difficult time for Palestinians. The tragedy that started in October last year is still continuing. So far, more than 23,000 people, mostly children, have lost their lives and 75 percent of the Gaza population has been displaced. But changes for the better are already visible as their legitimate cause for nationhood has become the focus of the international community. Leaders of Arab and Muslim countries have become well aware of the connections between the Palestine issue and their own agendas. 

The changes could be slow but will be resultful. Justice is defined by justice itself, and will also be defined by the power of those upholding justice. The Arab world, Muslim countries, and Global South will see their due roles in correcting the historical mistakes.

All in all, the long suspension of the Palestine issue should be attributed to the unbalanced power structure, and Palestinians are the victims of power politics and bullying hegemony. The changing of the international dynamics defined by multi-polarization, together with the efforts of Palestinians themselves, will deliver a bright future for Palestinians. 

    Dr. Jin Liangxiang is Senior Research Fellow of Shanghai Institutes for International Studies